Wave the white flag or go for it?
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
I switched to this table as there was a maniac blowing off chips, he just busted out and left. Now the table is a bunch of deep stack loose passives. I have about 400$ in the BTN.
V - I've seen him before once. He plays these marathon sessions, he's currently on 21 hours at this table and smells like BO. Has about 3k in front of him (max BI 500$). I expect he's not bluffing much and is somewhat locked down but not sure. He runs really hot in the few sessions I've had with him. Covers. SB.
HH w/ V - First hand at the table one limp to me in CO, I see A♥ T♥ open, V 3-bet minclicks BTN next to act, folds back and I call. Flop K-J-7 rainbow one ♥, I check, he bets 1/4 pot, I call. Turn is a blank no BDFD, I check he bets close to pot and I fold.
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Folds to hero on BTN who sees A♠ K♣ and opens 10, V to 40 in SB, BB folds, Hero calls. HU IP.
Flop 80 (360 back) - 7♣ 3♥ 2♦
V bets 25, H calls
Turn 130 (335 back) - J♥
V bets 50, H calls
River 230 (285 back) - 8♠
V checks...
13 Replies
I don't love it but I think we gotta blast off here I really think you are either ahead or chopping could be a weakish pair he's holding or just air. I think we go for a value bet of around 175$..
Not sure what you’re trying to represent here or what you’re trying to fold out. Seems like V has a middling pocket pair below the J and I don’t envision that folding very often.
His most likely bluff in this spot is AK/AQ which you block
Im barely floating flop here with this holding since we block his most likely bluffs and definitely just giving it up on the turn
This whole hand just seems overly ambitious and spewy
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I don't love it but I think we gotta blast off here I really think you are either ahead or chopping could be a weakish pair he's holding or just air. I think we go for a value bet of around 175$..
Would a vilain who isn't a bluffer and is possibly in "lock down" mode 3-bet a BTN open raise with hands like 44/55/66? Seems unlikely.
If anything, this board gives us a range advantage, but we don't really have enough left on the river to push him off a decent pair.
Since Banana didn't mention if Villain has a fold button, I'm probably checking back on the river.
It's always situational, but you could consider a raise on the turn. It's a 3 bet pot, you don't have tons behind and he is trying to play a small pot. You block aces and kings and have outs if he sticks around with a PP.
AP, it looks like you have either a big ace or a mid pp for similar reasons. Check isn't bad as you might chop or beat AQ at times. You could bet 200 saying you have QQ or something and this would work against AK and might or might not work against 99.
Raise flop in the hh. Fold flop this time you have nothing
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I don't mind 4bet pre. ... and it's super likely what a robot would do.
What are your assumptions on his 3bet range? If he's 3bet or fold and can have A5s/66 it's very different from if he mainly has TT+/AJs+/AQ+.
I probably call flop, but even for this price we are in a bad spot without some reads on wtf he can have and the only bluff draw we have is running clubs.
I mostly fold the turn. Hearts remove two good outs from you, which is bad in both ways (you can hit K♥ and not get paid by QQ/TT/whatever and you can hit it and lose to a flush).
Also your reads are that he's loose passive, and the previous hand suggests he's downbetting in 3bet pots with good hands.
On river I mostly check, we lose to a bunch of small pairs and maybe can get them to fold but we can win sometimes and I'm not sure how often we get those small pairs to fold and/or how often it's a trap.
Would feel better about shoving KT/QT/Q9 where we need to bluff out A5s/A4s type things.
Also not sure how often I get here with AA/KK, but would guess I lean way more towards shoving turn.
If I did have AA though I'd probably shove. Maybe if I have T9s I find a smaller bet but would probably get cute and bet 125.
Some people when they are tired to tend more towards folding and others more towards call it off, if you have any reads that he might not think as well and just fold then that changes everything.
Result:
Spoiler
I decide to shove and he snap calls with A♣ J♣, he asked why I would shove there and I said "what do you do with tens?" to which he said he would snap call....turns out he's a massive station.
1/3 NLHE 9 handedI switched to this table as there was a maniac blowing off chips, he just busted out and left. Now the table is a bunch of deep stack loose passives. I have about 400$ in the BTN.V - I've seen him before once. He plays these marathon sessions, he's currently on 21 hours at this table and smells like BO. Has about 3k in front of him (max BI 500$). I expect he's
Either 4 bet or raise the small c-bet on the flop. By the turn it looks like we are being milked as turn bet is larger both in size and percentage of pot. Hate a river bet as if we were ahead it is likely we raised earlier so see the hands we lose to mostly calling and the hands we already beat we have no need to bet to beat. If we feel we must bet river I prefer a small bet to look like we have been the one milking all along rather than a polarized bet. Risks less and think it equally likely to fold the middle pairs that we are targeting.
Preflop I think all 3 decisions are in play depending on images. If my tight ass gets 3bet, even to a Button open, I don't even think a fold is horrendous against some. With what I'm assuming a Banana image is, I think you could argue for a 4bet. Flatting in position prolly ain't never horrible.
I would mostly fold the flop.
I'm definitely folding the turn. our whole plan seems to be attempting to rep a backdoor flush draw if it comes in?
With what I'm assuming is a Banana image and all the draws busting, his river check looks tarpy as hell. Hope you didn't fall for it.
GcluelesstarpynoobG
I 4bet him pre-flop. As played, I might raise that little flop bet, but if I flat, I fold the turn. Definitely checking back the river.
I don't think calling TT is stationy. Hero called down showing no sign of aggression, then spazs on a brick. The scary hands don't play this way. If you somehow floated a gutter, gg reload. The bet isn't that big.
If you're going to bluff this hand, the bluff has to start earlier. Positionally, the turn looks really good for hero, who has more Jx, JJ and 77 which might extend rope on the flop, but raise turn due to FD coming in. If you min raise turn, then jam river a lot more hands fold and you win bigger pots with your successful bluffs. However, with your exact hand, it just isn't a great bluffing candidate. You have some SDV against a hand like AQhh or other h combos that cbet flop, semi-bluffed turn. You block his autofolds that might take this line like AK, KQ, KT, and you have no equity yourself. You could have A4, A5, 56s in your range, which would be better bluff candidates, starting on flop or turn.
With AK, you beat many of his bluffs, clear ck back in my mind. It was probably a fold earlier, but the betting was small, so I'd view it as a multi street bluffcatch.
thanks