Paired, draw heavy board, what hands shove for value?

To your headline ?, how many 7x is he betting 7X over two limpers? (The 5 is a straddle, right?) Seems ginormous. 7% of his stack on that? A7o? I mean, if he has it, he has it. I don't see it.

I'd sweat 1 combo of QQ, 3 combos of JJ. The shove on Jc seems really unnecessary by V. Presumably you called b50 on flop for...maybe a heart draw or you have a 7. Probably not Q/J7 though. (Are you raising that flop bet with 87/76 etc..., given the flush draw? V might think you would.) Accordingly, ripping it on a Jx seems...polarized?

As described, I don't believe V. I think V, with something Q or J-, is relying on H to make a "good fold." (This is usually when I ask to rebuy...) I'm calling here with Queens up.

This is kind of a weird line by V.

The flop bet makes sense for QJ+, AA, KK and mostly Ax/Kx hh as the bluffs. Possibly some mid-sc hands like JT, T9. Maybe a few 7x like A7/78s.

The turn shove gets a !? from me. Would the nutted hands like QQ/7x play this way? Maybe a fish, but a thinking player probably layers the money in over two streets unless he thinks you're going to call light with a FD. Given that we believe he believes you are tightish, $150-$200 is probably the sizing he would go with the nuts.

Vulnerable value might be Qx+ looking to make you pay for the draws. That makes some sense. AQ/QJ, KK

Bluffs could include combos like AK, KJ, KT, T9 etc, mostly hh that flopped decent and picked up equity. I doubt he's shoving without FD+ because you should have all the 7s, but also a lot of Qx. This portion of the range makes the most sense to shove to me. Trying to fold Qx and ok equity against 7x. He just has so many combos with 30%ish equity.

If your "thinking player" read is right, I think you have 70%ish equity against most of his bluffs, and at best 15% against his value. You're paying $400 to win $680. If he has 30% equity, you are winning $680 * 70% = $476 if he is bluffing 100% of the time. If he's value betting even 25% of the time it's a losing call, even if all his value comes from Qx which you have 15% against. If he does this even sometimes with 7x it's worse.

I think this is a fold unless you think he is going nuts with JT no heart and way overbluffing. He has so many high equity bluffs, and his lower equity value dominates you.

$2 on button, $3 for SB, $5 for BB; $7 dollar drop for rake and jackpot

pre should be 3b or fold. given v description seems like an easy 3b to like $150.

i was going to say fold, but flop SPR is <3 i think you just have to go with it. in fact given SPR im minraising flop and shoving turn.

Grunch:

FWIW, whenever another player starts yammering at me or anyone else about the value in playing lots of garbage hands, I generally think he's tight, and wants opponents to loosen up so he can exploit them. He also wants opponents to believe he's loose, when he so isn't.

Also, in my observation, a lot of older Asian dudes (the ones with accents) might play splashy pre, but always have it when they start shoveling money in post, which sort of aligns with his comments to you.

Lastly - Geezus, why do they always buy in short? When I see a guy like this raising pre, off a short stack, I tend to steer clear, unless we get good odds to try to cooler them, or have a hand that can play for stacks pre.

PRE - I'm already not liking this spot, with KQs, when V raises to $35 off $500 over two limps. Calling doesn't SEEM terrible, but I might actually fold. If I think there's a remote chance V might be getting out of line, I'll 3B here, maybe, but mostly I'm just folding and LQTM'ing.

FLOP - This is why I prefer to 3B pre. We're 100% losing to AA/KK/AQ here if stacks go in. V is NEVER betting this with worse than AQ, though I wouldn't be shocked if he was out of line pre with A7s.

TURN - Yeah, we're toast. If V was poking his head out with worse on the flop, it was JJ, and he just boated up. But more than likely this is AQ+, or just AA/KK. Just fold.

Do not reward this guy for being a short-stacking imbalanced nit.

BTW - where is this game played? I feel like there are at least a dozen guys exactly like V who are regs at Parx Philly.

It's like they're all using the same playbook - "How to exploit the gweilo."

San Jose, CA

He's got 100 straddles. Even though the straddle is less than two big blinds here, it still doesn’t mean V is shortstacked.

Damn. You have no idea how confident I was when I posted. Must have been projecting what I see locally over what you see.

FWIW, I think we're a 2:1 fave on the turn, which I'd think is the BEST case scenario when V jams. So, yeah, we have to call, but if we start giving him AA/KK, and aren't as confident that he never has a boat or trip 7's, or just AQ, I think it's fine to over-fold.

I really don't like playing two-street poker with guys who always buy in short. In my observation, they're rarely if ever getting stacks in as a huge underdog.

Every so often I'll cooler one of these guys, or catch them getting out of line when I've got the nuts, but it's rare.

It's live, not online. 100bb's in a live game is not the same as 100bb's in an online game.

The 2/5 games where I play are $1k max BI, and within an hour or two of a game starting, average stacks are around $1500-$2k. I routinely see 2/5 games where multiple players have >$3k.

To me, a $500 stack at 2/5 is a short stack. It's half a buy-in.

I gather that the CA $5 blind games often see $500 stacks as the norm, and the better players are going to be weighted towards higher cards, with fewer SC's and low-middling pairs in their opening ranges.

This is not 2/5, it's either 2/3 and there happens to be a straddle, or it's 2/3/5. Either way, 100 straddles cannot be considered shortstacked imo.

If it was 2/5, 100 blinds technically wouldn’t be shortstacked either, but I consider people buying in for 100 bigs as shorties too tbh, so I'd give you that.

My particular game is $2 on the button, $3 for the SB, and $5 for the BB. Occasionally people straddle $10 under the gun, or a table agrees for everyone to straddle. If no flop, they drop $2. If there is a flop, they drop $7.

Max buy-in is $800.