2/5: Sick beats or overplays with AA and QQ?

Hand 1: Clear cooler, me would likely do the same with KQ
Hand 2: A little more interesting, but you have to go with it given stacks. You're gonna mint money long term against a whale calling 95 suited to 3 bets.

I don’t think I would lose sleep over either of these hands. They both called $75 preflop to hit their hands and were not adequately compensated. There are way better spots to work on your game. This is why you have a bankroll.

You can't fold these, the money is destined to go in. Maybe if you're 250+ bb deep you can get away sometimes, but 100-150 bb just has to go in on these safe looking flops. Understand that AA played optimally is going to lose 30%-40% of the time, and a large chunk of those times you'll lose your stack. It will still be one of your largest winning hands. Don't get anxious about these coolers, they are part of the game.

One adjustment you should make is against whale, 3! wider and size up because if he is calling $90 with 95, he will probably call $100 or $110 with a lot of junk.

Just coolers. Hang in there!

Flop bet seems too big in hand 1.

Can go bigger than 3x pot pre. with QQ if fish are calling 95s, I guess dito. hand 1.
Also what is the fishes raising range on that flop, we aren't required to pay them off if he's only raising better than one pair.

Also not obvious if CO is calling the 3bet in hand 1 to get the bigger fish to overcall; or if he thinks you are often in front; or trying to dodge the AK flopped top pair ... or doing something else fishy. Seems pretty std. at 100bb for CO to just 4bet shove and get there.

As for variance, these are two hands. It can be worse than you ever imagined and go on for hundreds of hours.

H1 is absolutely standard

H2 is a little sketchier, depends what kind of fish this is and whether you're ever going to see overplays or random rubbish...so it may depend somewhat on reads, but at the end of the day getting it in with on overpair against a bad player on a board where there shouldn't be any 2-pair, for 100BB, can't be bad

H1 -

PRE - Even if V is "tight", he can still be pretty wide opening in the CO. I like the larger 3B size, but I might go even a little larger, when the whale calls on the BTN, because whales don't like to fold.

FLOP - What suits are our aces? Do we have the Ad?

Not really sure it matters. I'm mostly range-checking from OOP as the PFR, even in a 3B pot. If either V has a real hand, we'll likely get an indication of how strong the hands is by the bet size they choose.

Our hand doesn't need much protection, especially if we have the Ad. From OOP, I might just play it as a check-call. If someone has 2P+ on this flop, it's just a cooler.

H2 -

PRE - same advice as above, I'd probably 3B bigger from OOP with the whale on the BTN.

FLOP - same question - do we have the Qc in our hand?

Still mostly range-checking from OOP, especially if we have the Qc here. Might do a little more c-betting with QQ than AA or KK. But again, if someone has 2P+ here, it's MOSTLY a cooler.

This is sort of splitting hairs, but 952 is a little more connected than Q72. I'm not really expecting to see very many 2P combos on either board, but with a whale calling super-wide on the BTN, it wouldn't shock me, and it's always possible someone flops a set on almost any board.

Maybe we don't see as many sets on these flops when it's a 3B pot pre, but I'm not expecting the whale to 3B or fold 22, 55, 77, or 99, nor am I expecting a tight reg to necessarily fold any of those combos pre, when he opens CO and gets called by the whale, if he's expecting the whale to over-call the 3B behind him.

If the CO is a thinking player, he's likely to see the higher IO of letting the whale see the flop. He might start flatting rather than 4B'ing with QQ+/AKs.

Aside from preferring to just range check flop from OOP, consider how you'd play these two flops on the BTN, if you c-bet and got x/r'd. Even with big over-pairs to the board, we won't love getting x/r'd on these flops, and our hand doesn't need a lot of protection, so we might opt to check-back flop, or c-bet small, and possibly fold to a x/r.

If that sounds crazy, it isn't. Consider that in H1, the tight player opened pre. If he x/r's the flop, we can be pretty sure AA is behind. In H2, if the whale x/r's, we can be even more sure, because whales like to call with marginal hands, not raise with them.

None of which is to suggest you didn't get unlucky in both hands. You got very unlucky twice. But I think checking from OOP, or checking back IP (at least some of the time, when the flop doesn't favor our range) is going to yield better results than betting.

ETA - whales love calling. Use lots of big raises pre, but small bets post to take them to value-town. Betting small pre when they're not folding, letting them see the flop, and then betting big post is just torching. If a whale suddenly starts raising or betting big post, they flopped something, and we can just fold 1P.

100BB deep with overpairs nobody is folding these hands nor should they.

You’re right.. I’m just trying to figure how I could get away in hand 1.. guy was a nit and just flatting QQ pre obv because he’s a rec afraid of KK/AA.. even if we x flop, are we ever getting away regardless of what he bets?

At 100bb deep, not easily, and maybe never. Sometimes we just lose.

Just adding thoughts, seeing NittyOldMan say we can't ever get away here. When we're less than 120bb's deep, it's definitely not easy, but also not impossible.

H1 - We can have QQ in our range. If V is tight, maybe he's just willing to go broke with 77/22 on Q72, and call it a cooler. But we lose to 77/22, and holding AA, we un-block QQ. We can't necessarily expect V to 4B with QQ pre, and we can be pretty sure he's probably not 4B'ing 77/22.

Assuming he never has 72 in his range, he's got all the sets here, and only diamond draws for bluffs, which is why I asked if we have the Ad in our hand. But again, if we have him tagged as tight, how often is he getting here this way and calling our turn jam with worse?

What are his worse hands that call? KK, AXdd, and...? If we have the Ad in our hand, it's just KK, and KK probably WOULD 4B pre.

If we just check flop from OOP, he's likely to bet all his sets, often for a large size on a two-flush board, when we have so much AK in our range.

He may or may not bet his flush draws. If he does, it'll probably be smaller. If we're deep, like $1k or more to start, we can play the flop as a x/r and fold to a 3B if he bets big. This shallow, we probably just x/r-fold when he bets small, and x/c when he bets big, then fold the turn when he likely jams.

To be fair - when we raise bigger pre, it makes it harder to get away post, when the SPR is lower. But maybe he 4B-jams pre, and we get it in with way the best of it, or he calls and the BTN folds, making it a little easier to maneuver post.

If we 3B to $105 or even $125 pre, starting out $570 eff, it puts CO in a tough spot with big PP's and the BTN behind him. We'll be going to the flop with around 2 SPR if BTN folds, and not much more than 1 SPR if BTN calls. CO should consider 4B-jamming if he's going to continue.

If one or especially if both call our larger 3B pre, I don't think we're getting away post-flop, and it is just a cooler when he flops top set on Q72 two-flush.

H2 is a little trickier, because we want to c-bet QQ more than AA/KK on this 9-high, two-tone flop. Like, every run-out is going to be an over-card to top pair, or complete some draw, or pair the board. So we want to get value early on, before action-killing cards come out.

When we c-bet range, we should usually be going smaller, like less than 25% pot, especially when we're multi-way and OOP. If we're not range-betting, I think we could go larger. But I think this 952 two-tone board is fine to just check, with plans to call if one or the other bets. We can always make a delayed c-bet on the turn if the flop checks through.

If we check, maybe CO bets and BTN raises, which should raise alarm bells. If CO checks and BTN bets, we can evaluate based on his bet size. If we flat, which I think we'd usually do, rather than raise, odds are high that the CO is just going to fold when we call next to act.

Here, when we c-bet over 1/3 pot and get raised 2.5x, I think we can just flat call and check-evaluate turn. If BTN is barreling with 9x or bluffing, let him. If our read is that he's a whale, we can probably over-fold if he starts blasting off, because whales like to call with marginal hands, and will telegraph their hand strength when they have a monster.

Very often on these dynamic boards, the nuts are going to change on later streets, and V will slow down, allowing us to realize our equity, or even opening the door for us to blow him off his hand.

If the turn is another club or a high disconnected card, and he continues to bet big, it's an easy fold. If he slows down and checks, we can block-bet the river and hope he calls with 9x, or just check-fold.

Don't get me wrong - we're losing a good chunk of our stack in these hands, no matter how we play them, but we don't always have to go broke with big over-pairs.