3 bet pot vs an unknown player (might be fishy)
I don't have any notes on the villain. They have a small amount of tournament winnings (GG Poker). Just wanted to check and see make sure that I am not missing anything.
We are 5 handed. This tournament is a feeder tournament. All stacks get combined for Day 2. So you can play multiple Day 1s. People sometimes go a bit nuts on Day 1. Especially being short handed.
We are 110BB deep
Villain 85BB Deep
Preflop: Hero has Ac 4c OTB
1 fold, Villain raises to 3BB, Hero 3 bets to 8.5BB (I usually mix up the raise size here), blinds fold, villain calls
Flop: 9s 4d 2d (pot 19BB)
Villain leads 19BB, hero?
I feel like all options suck in this spot. I really can't raise unless it's to get it in. I can't just call the flop because the SPR will be 1.3 on the turn and then I have to be ready to stick it in on almost any turn. Easy fold?
7 Replies
We are 5 handed and villain CO
What the eff is he doing here?
Donk leading pot looks pretty crazy on this board which makes analysis tough. I used to take the view that when I didn’t understand why a bet was being made I would fold. So can we try to understand the bet.
Well, we’re nowhere near anything from a solver and left to guess at population tendencies. Maybe a bit of info will help…
What’s the buyin?
How many more of these games can we play to accumulate a stack?
Do we know if villain already has a stack?
Do we already have a stack? Does he know that?
(i avoid this format btw, it favours the time and money wealthy far too much)
Buy-in is $210,
We can fire a lot of these bullets. Don't know how many villain is playing.
We do not have a stack yet. Neither does villain.
The reason that I like these formats is that people sometimes go nuts during day 1 in the hope to build a stack for day 2. When I say go "nuts" I mean that they are willing to get it in a bit bad to gamble to build a stack.
I still can’t picture his range for this move. I doubt it’s solver approved whatever his holding.
I guess if you’re looking to gamble you could just GII but in truth we don’t have many strong hands in our range (over pairs obv, and we can have 99)
Calling must be ok sometimes although what turn/river makes us feel better?
I think folding is probably more appropriate. We have middle pair and no diamonds, no back door opportunities.
We should be 3b a bit bigger to 9.5-10x with these stacks and I think this player is fishy so he may still raise/call which changes ranges and the hand obviously. But as played we can only shove or fold flop never call..
which is better ? Hard to say but when faced with these spots I think its always more optimal to value chips so deep stacked so I mostly fold. Once in a while if I truly think this guy is mashing buttons and will somehow fold a decent bit or even call with worse and all of his Flush draws I will take the higher variance path and spike it in his face... welcome to NLHE truly an unsolved game 😀
honestly, especially if you don't mind firing again - I don't hate jamming. My instinct tells me this is a decent but vulnerable hand. Might be doing it with something like 88. if you think he'll fold something like that-- or especially if he'll fold 9x or TT-- because he thinks you must have a nutted overpair, then it seems like a good jam.
I doubt it's a monster, and if you're wrong, you probably have five outs and the backdoor wheel.
ETA: actually I would like this a lot better live at these stakes. Online it's tougher to make people fold top pair / overpair even when they think they're beat. But, hey, maybe try it anyway and see what happens.
