2/5 - AA plan to x/raise goes awry

2/5 - AA plan to x/raise goes awry

2/5, eff. stack 1000

Hero's second hand at the table, villains are unknown. Based solely on appearance/etc., V1 is a decent player, V2 is a rec.

V1 opens UTG to 20, MP call, V2 in CO calls, Hero in SB with AhAd makes it 150 ● UTG calls, MP folds, CO calls.

Flop (470): Tc 8s 5c

Hero checks, planning to shove over a bet.
V1 bets 150, V2 pretty quickly makes it 450, hero... ?

Not a very nice spot. V1's likely range is TT-QQ, as well as some 88 and maybe 55. V2 should have a wide range getting to the flop, and will have a mix of twopair+ and draws.
I feel like it's just a fold, but with unknown opponents I think it's close.

11 March 2025 at 09:19 AM
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18 Replies


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What? They raise with sets here??? Really??? 100 to call with 55/88?????

I think I just get it in and not worry about it.

There are lots st8d/fd/combodraws out there, sets are the last thing you want to worry when you already put in 150 preflop. If you only put in 80 yea, it's a fold. After 150 pre, I don't think we are going anywhere with this stack to pot ratio.

In order for me to fold this, I need some sort of reads that they're very nitty/passive.


Oh ****, I put the wrong board — the flop should have been Tc 8s 6c.

Anyway — yes, I wouldn't be surprised at all for V2 to show up with just about anything. Lots of the players here will call large raises pre with speculative hands, and once there's a caller to a 3B it's often taken as a mandate to continue with virtually 100% of their flatting range. There will be various strong draws, but IME most rec's will just call here looking to see the turn, while trying to avoid commiting too much of their stack against two clearly strong ranges.


I count for V2 about 14 value of str8s sets 2p and maybe 10 bluffs which all have decent equity. If he is tighter there is less value but also less bluffs represented.

It might just be a fold really. You might even be behind v1 on top ( although obviously that's not what we are scared of). I think flop maybe you should have bet small but check if u had Ac as you need a bit less protection and block his calling range

Sent from my Mi 9T using Tapatalk


Don’t fold. Unblocking clubs helps too


Effective's 1000, but who has what? Does everyone have a thousand? Or do V1 and/or 2 and the field have significantly more? Calling 130 with 340 in the pot and having 850 back, doesn't make a lot of sense for like 88/55 (but rec's will anyway.) If everyone else has like 1500 more except H, then maybe more understandable.

SPR below 1 with 450 to call a pot of 1070, and currently 850 back. Tbh, I just stick it in AP. If we stick it in, V1 runs away, and V2 calls, we are adding 850 to win a pot of 850 (V2 flop money) + 150 (V1 flop money) + 470 (pf pot). We need 36.6%, which we probably have. I don't see the point of simply calling, at this depth. Tbf, I'll feel like a donk for probably blowing 200bb when V2 inevitably turns over TT.

V1's range looks hard to define at this point. Probably a lot of suited broadway if I had to guess and few PP. Maybe 99-JJ too? Is V1 calling or 4!, a huge 3! from the SB, with two callers left to act?

V2, call/called, then 3x'd a typical 1/3 range cbet from UTG on T85 2-tone. Either a zesty combo draw with or without overs (though is even a drooler calling J9cc/97cc when SB 7.5Xs?) or an I-Hate-IO improbable set, or complete air, right?

My guess w/o reading subtext from OP, is V1 should GTFO and isn't a threat, and V2 has something in the AK-AJcc range, maybe KQcc, with a few TT-88, and some big overplayed JJ and 99. Let's give them all four club combos, all three TT, and one 88. I get that we're a ~60/40 dog. Much better if we throw in a bluffy AcK/Qx, and JJ,99 ofc.

I can't get away. I'd need to know this V is silly enough to call all 88/55 combos pf before I can dump Aces. (If they do, then even if I throw QJcc in, we're at 27%) Even for 200bb. If they are that silly, then they'll also have enough club combo-draw/overs stuff (KJcc/J9cc/98cc you get the idea) that I still have to go with it.


The SPR is 2. Sets and gappers getting lucky are always a possibility but the board looks good for many combo draws. Especially in the presence of a check by hero, opponents' aggression doesn't mean we are smoked.
So the question is whether to smooth call and keep v1 in or just shove.


I think it's a snap fold vs unknowns on T86cc. I don't think V2 is raising with just a bare flush draw,AT,JJ - I'm also concerned with V1 as I think he would check overpairs/AT/etc. Really to get this in V2 would need to be raising bare flush draws, JJ, QQ, AT to make up for the 79s,T8s,sets,clubs+something.


What does V2 look like? Seriously. What vibe is he giving off? That's what I'd base my "read" on if it's the second hand at the table. I mean, what is "rec" to you? Is he a gamble-y rec, a nitty rec? How are his chips stacked? Is he wearing a puffy shirt? A hoody? A Timex, a mass-produced Rolex, or a Patek?

Honestly, I probably just sigh-fold w/o more info.


First, by the way, does anyone have Simple 3-way and could approximate this spot in a sim (based on approximated ranges coming in to the flop)? I can't run it on my computer, it doesn't work on computers with certain chips.

by Nh,gg.

Effective's 1000, but who has what? Does everyone have a thousand? Or do V1 and/or 2 and the field have significantly more? V1's range looks hard to define at this point. Probably a lot of suited broadway if I had to guess and few PP. Maybe 99-JJ too? Is V1 calling or 4!, a huge 3! from the SB, with two callers left to act? V2, call/called, then 3x'd a typical 1/3 range

V1 has like 2k maybe, V2 has a little over 1k. As for V2's range, that's really the problem. In this spot, going by population tendencies, this raise just reads as super strong. What I'm really afraid of here isn't just losing the pot — it's assigning, with the lack of information or reads, a range that includes enough draws/semi-bluffs to continue when ACTUALLY this line might simply have me crushed most of the time. i.e. — lacking info, is it best to default to assigning a range that isn't just pure, crushing value? Or is it best to just let it go, wait and see, and avoid a spot where we either:
1. Are either flipping or crushed, and have at best around 30% EQ (including basically all combo draws, pair + flush draws, and AJcc+)
2. Are just crushed, and drawing to 2 outs.

Or then again,
3. Maybe V2 is worse, and more wild, than we think, and is also doing this with ATo, and we have closer to 60% EQ.

This is also ignoring V1, who we're not worried about, true, but he WILL, sometimes, show up with TT and even some 88

by Nh,gg.

I can't get away. I'd need to know this V is silly enough to call all 88/55 combos pf before I can dump Aces. (If they do, then even if I throw QJcc in, we're at 27%) Even for 200bb. If they are that silly, then they'll also have enough club combo-draw/overs stuff (KJcc/J9cc/98cc you get the idea) that I still have to go with it.

I don't agree with this point in particular — being silly enough to call all 88/55 pre doesn't imply that they're raising more of their club combos here post.

by Javanewt

What does V2 look like Seriously. What vibe is he giving off That's what I'd base my "read" on if it's the second hand at the table. I mean, what is "rec" to you Is he a gamble-y rec, a nitty rec How are his chips stacked Is he wearing a puffy shirt A hoody A Timex, a mass-produced Rolex, or a Patek

V2 is middle eastern or indian, late 20s or early 30s, wearing a hoodie. I feel like maybe I've played with him before but can't be certain. Sort of quiet maybe but I haven't been here long. Definitely not nit vibes though. I'm assuming he's quite loose pre, but I'd also guess he's not going crazy post (obviously, if I thought that, it's an easy decision). In general I find that most people who look gambly aren't actually as gambly as they look. Those who actually ARE crazy gamblers are quickly and definitively identified, removing the need to go off guesses based on appearence/behavior/etc.


Yeah at this depth I’m just stacking off. Better that the inferior of the 2 V’s raised. He could have JTs trying to “protect his top pair” ffs. We are ahead of a lot of semibluffs and some value. With SPR 2 we are supposed to pay off sets with AA. I may consider folding if I had Ac.


Rip it. But I pay off a lot of hands.


V2 raises and basically commits on the flop vs. the OR and 3bettor? Seems insanely strong, but he could be doing this with the nut flush draw -- that seems like about the worst hand he could have. Just a gross spot and we still have V1, who I'm not too worried about, but....

In game I probably can't let this go, but from here it seems wise vs. someone who might be lose pre but not going crazy post and doesn't seem like a rec fish.

I find the vibe I get from players based on looks/attitude in the first round is pretty spot on, but there are outliers.


Don't feel like running this 3 way but this is a fair range IMO for at least one opponent.

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - tc8s6c
PLAYER_1 AhAd
PLAYER_2 TT,88,66,T8s,79s,AJ:CC,AQ:CC,AK:cc,8:cc
25740 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity


[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AhAd|29.4425%|28.9044%|1.0761%|7440|277|
TT,88,66,T8s,79s,AJ:...|70.5575%|70.0194%|1.0761%|18023|277|
[/table]

Now if you had in AT,JJ,QQ,etc we start looking a lot better but even then we're only 53%. Also keep in mind frequencies - he's going to raise with TT/88/etc at a much higher frequency then when he has AQcc, so you need even more equity to justify how often his range will be nuts.


Crazy how T85 is so much different than T86 even though 97s isn't a huge part of range

As played I think I fold this , v2's range is just so strong here and we got v1 to worry about too, be glad that you got off cheap, but on T85 im stacking off :P


Your raise pre/check flop line reeks of AK, so Villain is right to raise you out of this pot with as little as JJ.


by marchron

Your raise pre/check flop line reeks of AK, so Villain is right to raise you out of this pot with as little as JJ.

So someone who only calls with JJ after an UTG raise and a flat is going to raise a donk bet here with the Hero still left to act on this super wet board? Seems unlikely.

In addition, JJ appears to be the only non-set PP that calls twice PF and then raises this flop for value.


Spoiler
Show

I folded.
V1 shoves, V2 thinks like 5 seconds and calls.

Turn: Jo
River: blank

V1 shows JJ, V2 mucks and says something to the effect that he was ahead. Whether he was telling the truth, I had some doubts


Wow. Terrible fold (JK). Valuable info and you dodged a bullet.

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