GOAT NBA Discussion: Biggest fraud poster: fallguy. Super AIDS Containment thread

Magic Johnson played from 1979-80 to 1990-91, took 4 years off due to HIV, and returned for 32 games in 1995-96. George Lynch played from 1993-94 to 2004-05. This means that George Lynch played for, at most, 32 games with Magic Johnson, and it was after he contracted HIV, was 36 years old, and had to take 4 years off from playing.

Magic Johnson won championships in 1980, ‘82, ‘85, ‘87, and ‘88. 3 championships in 4 years, 4 in 7 years, and 5 in 9 years. This exceeds your definition of a dynasty in every way.

Just so we are clear: are you now saying your made up definitions and cutoffs for “dynasty”, assisted rate, and ball dominators are so wrong and incoherent, that you’re now instead taking the opinion of a guy who played 32 games with a 36 year old, HIV+, not having played basketball in 4 years Magic Johnson?

I thought it would be interesting to look at the assisted fg hypothesis using statistics. I chose Steph Curry since he is the best off-ball jump shooter ever and we have a full career of tracking data for him.

Curry’s assisted fg% by season, before Steve Kerr:

44.3%
42
50.3
40.9
30.1
44.4

Curry’s assisted fg% by season, after Steve Kerr installed a triangle-inspired motion offense:

46.6%
52.3
51.6
59
45.5
50.2
47.7
47.9
51.5
60.1

One thing you will notice is that 9 of Curry’s 10 highest assisted fg% years came under Kerr and his ball-movement offense. 5 of his lowest 6 assisted fg% seasons came before Kerr.

Curry’s average assisted fg% was nearly 10 full percentage points higher in Kerr’s motion offense. If you do a simple T test between the two data sets, you get a p-value of 0.006624. That’s about as statistically significant as you can get.

In other words, we have proof based on the laws of probability and statistics that a player’s assisted field goal rate is a function of the scheme in which they play, and their role within that scheme. And if anyone claims they know that Michael Jordan’s assisted field goal rate was just as high before Phil Jackson and the triangle as within that system, they are lying because that data does not exist. And as we know, if you have to lie, you lost.

One interesting logical consequence of LeBron James delivering assists to teammates turning them into spot up shooters, is that since Michael Jordan’s teammates delivered assists to him, that must mean they turned Michael Jordan into a spot up shooter.

Which actually makes sense given the data — we know that Michael Jordan was a vastly inferior scorer unless he was constantly fed the ball via assists. When he played in a balanced offense at UNC he only averaged 17.7 ppg. In the ‘92 Olympics, he only averaged 14.9 ppg on .451 shooting and was carried by Charles Barkley. Therefore, the logical consequence of the above actually fits the data — unless Michael Jordan was constantly fed the ball his scoring average was entirely mediocre. He received assists, therefore he was reduced to a spot up shooter role. He just happened to get a lot of shot attempts with Chicago.

Your point would be the moot point, being that the below was the initial post that FG had replied to saying it was wrong. Championships are irrelevant.

Regarding Magic's lower PPG - this is why all of my claims reference high-scoring primary ballhandlers, aka "ball-dominators", which doesn't really include lower-scoring PG's like Magic, Nash, Kidd, etc - Magic was more of this mold although his post game was quite dominant..

This is exactly why I have Magic ahead of Lebron and Oscar as the first ball-handlers to appear in my rankings - Lebron and Oscar are high-scoring primary ballhandlers (ball-dominators), so they have the vaunted high volume of unassisted buckets that impose spot-up roles and lower everyone's assists (and the team's)... Magic didn't have this issue because he wasn't averaging 30 ppg like Lebron, Oscar, Luka, Harden, SGA, Westbrook, and today's ball-dominators.. Ditto Nash, Kidd and Haliburton - these lower-scoring point guards had very high-assist teams because they don't have a lot of unassisted buckets... Instead of being elite scorers, someone like Magic was the goat passer that averaged a full assist per game more than everyone in history, while Kidd, Nash, Haliburton and others follow in his footsteps.

Btw, George Lynch is talking about Lebron as a player and skillset - his entire career - he's even talking about Reaves and Rui as teammates alongside Lebron.. I've said before that Reaves is amazing and should EASILY BE AN ALL-STAR ALREADY - only LeHoldBack prevents it.. It's simply hard to grow alongside Lebron's player-type just like I've been saying this entire time - and no, I didn't tell George to say that because I don't know him.. I would've told him to throw "assisted rate" in there so you guys know it's from me.. So why don't Curry's teammates say that about his player-type, or Duncan's, or MJ's, or Jokic or Bird's??... How come it's only the ball-dominators like Luka or Lebron where teammates say it's hard to play with them and we're talking about the prime versions of them - it's just hard to play with that type of player/skillset (ball-dominator)... Remember, we know that high-scoring primary ball-handlers (ball-dominators) produce low-assist teams - this is statistical fact - this lower ball movement hinders chemistry/teammate performance and young player developement.

Yeah, no idea what this post is trying to say.

You were talking about Magic being ****. I know it's hard to keep track. Now he's awesome?

Agreed.. He hasn't even won an MVP or a chip yet, and Fidstar wants to say that a career losing ball-dominator like SGA is better than Kobe... SGA will be like every other high-scoring ball-dominator that can't win with "normal" rosters of 1 franchise player and will need super-teams of multiple franchise players... He'll need Jalen Williams to play like a top 5 player to win the title.

I never said he was better. I said he was having a better regular season than Kobe ever had. Once again, I know it's hard for you to keep track.

Again, it's only the ball-dominators that people are saying stifle young players.. You don't hear anyone say that Curry, Jordan, Bird, Jokic, or Duncan stifled anyone.. It's only the ball-dominators because their skillset turns everyone into spot-up shooter, which prevents elite roster construction, development and teams..

So again, you said nothing to refute this except very weak deflections about Magic's usage (and I actually pointed out how this made him better than the high-usage/high-scoring ball-dominators like Lebron or Luka, who have high volume of unassisted buckets that produce low assist teams).

You're going to have to pick a lane on this one.

Your quote

"So why did Klay, Draymond, Pippen, Grant, and BJ grow leaps and bounds alongside MJ and Curry, but no one grows alongside high-scoring ball-dominators like Lebron and Magic??"

Is Magic a ball-dominator or not?

You're saying that Curry is called a great off-ball player because he happened to have a coach that ran ball movement, and you're saying that anyone can play however they need depending on the scheme.. That's nonsense, obviously.

Curry's skillset needs the highest 3-point volume in the league and many assisted buckets to average elite scoring levels, while Lebron's skillset needs mostly unassisted buckets to average elite scoring levels.. This why their skillsets are different.

Surely Lebron could average 18-22 or whatever if he played as the roll man all game long, but he needs massive ball-domination and around a 20-40% assisted rate (give or take) to get the big numbers like 30/10/10 or more.. And it's these high scoring ballhandlers with mostly unassisted buckets that produce the low assist teams over time (Luka, Lebron, SGA, etc).... Otoh, the low-scoring ballhandlers like Nash or young Curry produce high-assist teams, or the high-scoring jumpshooters and assisted players as well (prime Curry).

Hope that helps.

HIGH-scoring primary ballhandlers = ball-dominator = low assist teams over time (Luka, Lebron, SGA, etc)

LOW-scoring primary ballhandler = primary ballhandler = high assist teams over time (Magic, Nash, Haliburton)

It's only the high-scoring primary ballhandlers (ball-dominators) that have the high volume of unassisted buckets that produce low assist teams... Magic wasn't a high-scoring ballhandler - he was a lower-scoring one that could also dominate the post - so a true hybrid that I'm not even sure had low assisted rates of around 40% or less..

It wouldn't shock me at all if Magic was closer to 50% assisted rate, which would be amazing for a 10+ APG player, but Jokic is doing it currently - he's the only 10 APG player that has high assisted rate, since possession-tracking began in 1997... He's a f*cking goat-level player, at least on my paper.

The true GOAT is GOAT at everything.. As a 1st-time point guard at 26 years old, MJ was a 30/10/10 point guard thirty years before the 30/10/10 era and format.. Of course he was already the goat off-ball scorer... That's goat talent for the game of basketball.

Okay, so you admit that what you said was wrong about Magic. Now he's gone from team wrecking to amazing.

Just want to check. The guy that has 1 championship in 10 years (and not really close in any other year) GOATier than LeBron. Thanks.

No, I’m not saying that. Do you understand the difference between these two statements?

A) Scheme, and the role a player has within that scheme, impacts how much a player scores and the way in which they score (e.g. the rate they are assisted, among other things).

B) Great off ball players will themselves to highly assisted 30+ ppg, no matter the scheme, role, and system in which they play

There is literally nothing connecting these two statements. There is zero logic to support statement B. I am saying A. You are saying B, and you’ve been saying it for a thousand posts. Are you intelligent enough to see that they are different statements?

You have never seen LeBron James play in a Phil Jackson, Popp, or Kerr offense so you are lying and entirely fabricating this. LeBron James, despite usually being a primary ball handler, has had 9 “highly assisted” seasons. This proves he is “highly assisted” in certain schemes. Because it literally, factually, historically happened.

Furthermore, in my last post, I proved, using extremely standard statistical arguments, that coach, scheme, and role within that scheme significantly affects a player’s assisted fg%.

The above proves analytically that LeBron James can, has been, and is therefore capable of being a highly assisted scorer in the proper role.

What you’re trying to say above is that Steph Curry is a better off-ball jump shooter than LeBron James, and therefore the way he scores will be different. No ****ing ****. But this does not mean LeBron James cannot be a highly assisted scorer in the right role. One does not imply the other and you’d have to be a complete moron to think otherwise.

This is all completely wrong as proven above.

I completely understand that you are completely incapable of understanding the above and the basic statistical arguments it was derived from, so I likely will not read your massive, word salad wall of text that follows unless you can convince me in the first paragraph that it will contain something at least a little bit interesting.

It’s interesting that he can’t even figure out what his own point is, isn’t it? No wonder every single argument he’s ever made has been proven wrong with actual data.

When Michael Jordan played point guard and scored 30 ppg, do you think his assisted fg % went up, down, or stayed the same? Think really really hard about this.

Magic manufactured teams?

Remember when Curry had an assist rate of 35% against Boston in 22 (including having a 55% unassisted on his 3 pointers*). When the Warriors offense ultimately went to standard pick and roll. It's almost like great players can play multiple styles.

Yes, it is interesting that the data factually shows that players’ assisted rates change depending on the scheme, and role they are playing within that scheme. And yes I agree that great players can play multiple styles, like when LeBron James plays as a hybrid forward vs. a point forward, or when Michael Jordan effectively played point guard. It’s interesting that we have definitive proof that that can and does happen, but we still have people who nonsensically argue the complete opposite for thousands of posts.

.

^^^ Keep in mind the positional designations shown above that were obtained from our assisted rate source of data - the NBA (NBA.com).

I didn't say statement B because many great off-ball players like Curry can only average elite scoring levels by playing off-ball (high assisted rates).. So they can't do it in "any scheme" like your post states above.. So there - you're wrong - full stop... You can stop reading if you want.

History shows that Curry didn't achieve elite ppg until he had the 3-point volume and higher assisted rates that his skillset needs to achieve elite ppg.. Similarly, Lebron needs "lower" assisted rates to achieve elite ppg, which handcuffs any coach that wants to get the most out of him - "lower" assisted rates means the lowest assisted rates ever for a forward BY FAR, or a career assisted rate under 40% that only primary ballhandlers have, or 29-41% in his prime as a competitive player (45% as a low-scorer in 04', and as a lottery player or carried fossil from 22-24').

You seem to think that any assisted rate in the low 40's for a season is "high".. This is false... "High" assisted rate means at least average for the player's position, since abnormally-low assisted rates give teammates less opportunity to assist than normal, which creates the low assist teams that we see from high scorers with low assisted rates (ball-dominators)... Accordingly, a "high" assisted rate for a forward is 80% like Karl Malone, or 45-50% for a starting guard like Curry.. Again, refer to the NBA's positional designations shown above.

Accordingly, Lebron's assisted rates are the lowest ever for a forward, hence the low assist teams, and they're also below the critical standards to be 1st option for the best basketball (dynasty or dominant champion).. The 1st option for a dynasty has never been a primary ballhandler, which excludes all players under a 40% career assisted rate like Lebron... Meanwhile, the cutoff for a dominant title run/dominant champion is 47%, but Lebron has never won with anything higher than 43%, which is why he never had a dominant champion.

Those coaches have horrific losing records without

1) goat off-ball players to execute "dynasty-ball" (ball movement)

2) the scant help needed (aka Wiggins) to win with these chemistry-friendly skillsets (goat off-ball skills)

Otoh, Lebron's horrifically-low assisted rate for his position gave teammates less opportunity to assist while turning them into spot-up shooter, which prevents elite roster construction, young player development, or chemistry, and therefore cannot win with normal rosters of 1 franchise player..

For Curry to achieve elite production, he requires goat 3-point volume and higher assisted rates - the first coach that ran this type of offense succeeded with Curry, just like the first ball movement offense for Duncan or MJ instantly won - it turns out that if the best off-ball players ever are put in ball movement systems, they instantly win... That's what history shows.. Otoh, coaches that have stars who achieve elite production via ball-domination must run ball-dominant offenses - the inferior chemistry of these offenses cannot win with "normal" rosters of 1 franchise player.

35% is not uncommon for a starting guard and actually a tad high for point guards, so teammates don't have less opportunity to assist alongside him compared to playing with other point guards, and this is despite your example being at the bottom of Curry's range... Remember that the lowering of teammates' assists and low assist teams caused Lebron to have deficits in team assists for every playoff loss of his career, thus proving that team assists are the Achilles' heel of Lebron and all high-scoring ball-dominators.

And the fact that Curry can range up to 55% as a point guard and a ridiculous 49% for his career is what gives teammates maximum assist opportunity alongside him and therefore the best ball movement and brand ever.

Sure did.

He demanded to play with Kareem.

Now that's goat IQ, rather than waiting 7 years to find out your skillset can't win with normal rosters of 1 franchise player.. 😆