trip face river big raise
NL50 GG, V is a reg, is this a easy fold ?
GGPoker, Hold'em No Limit - $0.25/$0.50 - 5 players
Replay this hand on Pokeit
ae72d35c (UTG): $57.40 (115 bb)
50d1cf1a (CO): $61.96 (124 bb)
4ea73a42 (BU): $50.25 (101 bb)
620015b5 (SB): $9.66 (19 bb)
Hero (BB): $52.57 (105 bb)
Pre-Flop: ($0.75) Hero (Hero) is BB with Q♣ 5♣
2 players fold, 4ea73a42 (BU) raises to $1.15, 1 fold, Hero (BB) calls $0.65
Flop: ($2.55) Q♠ A♥ 4♦ (2 players)
Hero (BB) checks, 4ea73a42 (BU) bets $1.10, Hero (BB) calls $1.10
Turn: ($4.75) Q♦ (2 players)
Hero (BB) checks, 4ea73a42 (BU) checks
River: ($4.75) 3♠ (2 players)
Hero (BB) bets $7.50, 4ea73a42 (BU) raises to $48 (all-in)
Hero?
15 Replies
Not folding maybe v managed to set mine a full house 33s
turn check was no good
Leaning towards call by a bit not easy fold
i think this is a great hand to exercise a bit your odds calculation so how often do you need to be good here and how often does villain need therefore to bluff.
So we need to pay 40.5$ to win 100$ so your odds 2.47 to 1 so you need to be good 40.5% of the time.
Now we need to count combos from villains value range and see how many combos bluffs he need to have to get the 40.5% bluffs.
Value = AQ 6 combo
44 3 combo
33 3 combo
AA 1 combo ( i discount them because he bets a bit bigger on the flop i dont think it is natural to size up with top set more hands like 2pairs or lower set like 44 unblocking calls)
= 13 combos value
So he need to have 9 combos bluffs. 9 combos bluffs + 13 combos value = 22 total combos so the 9 bluffs are 40.9% of 22 total range
This is not something to calculate in detail on the table but more often you do this off table more intuitve and better you get ingame
Do you find 9 realistic bluffs in villains range?
Overbet 1.2-1.5x on the turn, u gotta protect your hand against the flush draws
i think this is a great hand to exercise a bit your odds calculation so how often do you need to be good here and how often does villain need therefore to bluff. So we need to pay 40.5$ to win 100$ so your odds 2.47 to 1 so you need to be good 40.5% of the time. Now we need to count combos from villains value range and see how many combos bluffs he need to have to get the 40.5%
Will V will use KJ/TJ to face a ob in river then 2.5x pot shove ? maybe not
Will V realize that A3, A4 is not good enough call the ob then turn this into bluff? Idk
34s? yeah, could be, but not sure if he will do that
nah, cannot find enough bluffs. Fold seems good.
i think this is a great hand to exercise a bit your odds calculation so how often do you need to be good here and how often does villain need therefore to bluff. So we need to pay 40.5$ to win 100$ so your odds 2.47 to 1 so you need to be good 40.5% of the time. Now we need to count combos from villains value range and see how many combos bluffs he need to have to get the 40.5%
There is only Qh left from here and Ah As Ad,
So only 3 combos for AQ right? If so then there are only even lesser combos as value and higher bluffs.
Could be profitable call
i think this is a great hand to exercise a bit your odds calculation so how often do you need to be good here and how often does villain need therefore to bluff. So we need to pay 40.5$ to win 100$ so your odds 2.47 to 1 so you need to be good 40.5% of the time. Now we need to count combos from villains value range and see how many combos bluffs he need to have to get the 40.5%
Alot of Ax are potential bluffs here since its btn open way more wide
How did u get the 9 number of bluffs? Work backwards from pot odds?
Vs a reg, hes never shoving a Ace here and also never randomly bluffing w 0 turn setup + facing riv overbet.. Its just Qx or better - FOLD
I don't think we should be over betting the river without a very specific reason for doing so.
seems like you are playing just your hand and you will end up beeing pretty face up. Good simplification is to not donk at all because it is just very rarely a thing in theory. Totaly fine to exploit ofcurse but we need to have good reasons so making a estimation how villain should react in theory (optimal defend) and what is happening in reality that makes the donk higher ev (brings more money in the longrun) then just check.
Here for example if your thoughtprocess would be that villain is a mega station but pretty nitty and passive himself (mostly vs fish or very weak regs) then we want to overbet donk and go for max value vs ax.
I disagree clear overbet spot to me we want to get value from Ax why do you think a overbet is not good ?
I don't think a good reg ever just calls often enough.
Edit: reread OP and it just says reg, and doesn't specify "good", necessarily. But given V jams river, I am leaning that way. I just don't see people overbet bluffing enough in BB's position to making calling Ax profitable if I'm the btn. MHO of course.
