okay, so I checkraised the flop with a draw. now what?

Forgot to add that I started the hand with ~$400, so I have just over a PSB left in the tank.

just jam and hope he folds better i guess. flop cr is pretty bad, whats the point. this isnt limit hold em. i have no idea why you think youd be ahead of a range that would call your flop CR, if you are villain is a donkey not a winner.

I wouldn't checkraise, because it is a wet board and he potted it. Plus you may be ahead. I would rather checkraise just a strong draw or a big made hand.

As played, I guess shove turn.

XR sizing is too small, lead could easily be better option anyway.

As played? check i guess. Hero line looks weird, let's see what happens. Nothing to indicate we can fold villain off a better hand, or it would be a fairly narrow range. Presumably villain also ships flush draw and 2 overs on flop.

If turn action checks through, might shove some rivers trying to fold out weaker 1p hands like 7x from villain.

Why are you playing this way against an opponent that has successfully soul read you on multiple occasions. You have a tell and he has shown you he knows it.

Calling 5% of your stack pre with 66 OOP to UTG open is going to be -EV long run. Flop xr is fine, x turn or barrel.

I'm fine with pre given the conditions. I do not like the flop x/raise, especially against this guy. Check or shove on turn are fine, but if you check, it's a check/fold.

Grunch:

PRE - Could go either way on 3B'ing vs flatting with 66, if we're deep enough to set mine. If he's actually good, he should be over-folding, but if he's on tilt, he probably won't, so I'd lean towards just flatting to set mine.

ETA - just saw we're only $400 deep to start, which is just deep enough to set-mine and call the $20. A 3B is still an option, and maybe a better one if we knew ahead of time we might get OOL and x/r the flop for more than what we could 3B here.

FLOP - I wouldn't check-raise when V pots it. If he bet half pot or less, sure. When we x/r here, we're basically repping only nutted hands.

That said, V shouldn't have many, if any nutted hands here, when he opens UTG, so in theory, we should have the range / nut advantage on this flop. But again, if he's tilted, he could be opening wide, with hands that make 2P+, and occasionally some straights or really good combo draws.

If we do x/r, 2.5x isn't folding much of anything. A real x/r for value would be at least 3x, if not 4x, and just a jam on any turn that doesn't complete the flush or put four to a straight on board.

TURN - How deep are we? If we're going to continue with our story, we should be over-betting the turn, but with enough left behind for a chunky river bet. If we've only got 2x pot behind, our only play is to jam and hope he folds, or that he calls with some draw that bricks.

ETA - just saw we started $400 deep. I like the flop x/r even less now. With only $280 left, all we can do is jam and hope he folds or calls with a draw that bricks.

The thing I don't like about this hand is we have so few really clean outs. Any spade or club completes a flush draw, any 9 brings in JT, any 6 makes us a set but brings in T9. Our best outs are just the two red 4's.

Our hand was a decent bluff catcher, but now we've turned it into a bluff. It's possible V has some un-paired over-cards that were spite-floating the flop, and will fold to a big turn bet, but more likely he has an over-pair or good draw, and he's not folding before the river, so we're going to have to empty the clip whether we make our hand or not, if we want him to fold.

Preflop seems questionable to call OOP HU. 66 has poor playability. You will probably have to fold a lot when you are ahead. This is one of the few flops that is good for you.

If there was a caller or two ahead of you, then it would be a profitable call with immediate odds to hit a set.

I would just call the flop. He should be often checking back the low connected flop. When he almost pots it, it seems like he somehow hit it with low cards, has a good overpair, or has a flush draw.

As played, I think you need to shove the turn. You have too much equity and showdown value to give up.

OTF, I like a donk here. The reason being that this board smashes your range and V should be checking back a lot here. Hands like AK/AQ will have to call a lot. With your specific hand, you are absolutely right that you want to grab the betting lead, but a x/r gets the pot uncomfortably large. When you donk, a good player is going to recognize that this board is scary for AA and will frequently take a cautious approach and just call. So instead of large bet, x/r, call, you would be looking at going to the turn with donk/call. A much smaller pot that provides you the option to x/r the turn which will read as crazy strong, or you might get ck/ck OTT a lot.

AP, I think the advice to shove is a blunder. Shoving makes it very easy for V to play near perfect and call with everything that beats you and fold everything you beat. Your x/r was tiny. V had to call with AJo. He has any random overcards he might have been getting spewy with. If you ck, he might try to bluff with those. Especially if he was getting out of line, couldn't fold to such a small x/r and now has overtrash that bricked turn.

On the other hand, if he has an overpair, he should slow down even if you check. How gross is it for him to bet QQ and you jam on this board? I think most good players with JJ-AA here are thrilled to check it down and hope to win sometimes, but will be hard pressed to fold against a PSB when there is a FD that missed. You will get your river for free against most moderate made hands. I think most bets you face will be bluffs. I don't think he is betting turn with worse than a set for value, and most good aggressive regs will overbluff with their broadways if you show weakness with a check. This is a spot where I think checking will cause good players to make more mistakes.

So don't force him to make a call with JJ+ when he wants to check it down. Ck and call a small bet, if faced with a large bet I would probably fold absent a read, and I think you get to check it down a lot more than you might think. Sometimes, you'll win either by hitting or when he checks down AK.

Yeah, it is hard to put this into a solver, because the solver wouldn't understand to 10x open and would think the call from the SB would be really strong. However, with reasonable action, the solver would probably make this flop a range check for the UTG raiser. So it is pretty significant he bet pot, which would make me just call. I agree that leading from the SB may be best.

With the larger than normal for villain 10x open and then the pot sized bet on the low connected flop, I would suspect QQ+. Then checkraising would be good if you flopped a set, but here maybe best to just call and draw.

I would shove the turn as played, because you are 23% against JJ-AA and maybe he has a flush draw you are ahead of and maybe he has something he will fold. Check/folding the turn with so much in and so much equity seems really bad.

However, flop seems awful. Just checkraise because you have a strong draw despite preflop and flop looking strongly like JJ+. Seems misplayed preflop and on flop.

Oooohkay.
Pro tip: Don't make bad calls against V OOP for 200bb. Esp. when he raises 10x and is likely too tilted to fold.

Stop.
Don't think about 3bet (lol), just fold ainec.

Stop.
Maybe you have decent equity vs. V's cbet range, but who cares what he folds. If you are bluffing you care about how your hand does. vs. his calling range. Even having the 66s is a lot better, but I wouldn't play 66c this way.

Turn ~1 SPR, is not a good spot.

You've put too much money in everywhere, and are probably crushed ... betting as a bluff seems bad, you get called by big/decent draws sometimes by probably not enough. If he really thinks you are tight and passive (lol) you could try shoving for fold equity vs. high pairs, but this hand is super far from either description and he might have a much better read on what you are doing than you do on yourself.

I would probably start with a check.

On the turn, the SPR is 1 and you are 23% against AA. You can be ahead. If you check and he shoves, you need 34%. You should have more than that versus his range. So you can't x/f, so just shove.

Think of a range for a player who:

1. Is competent
2. Opened 10x UTG
3. Got called by a "tight" and "passive" SB.
4. Bet pot HU on 875 two tone.
5. Called a 2.5x raise (vs. the same tight/passive).

Yes, you are 22.7% vs. AA ... but you are also 22.7% vs. TT/A8. Only 13.6% vs. 99.
Yes, he has AcKc but does he really open this big with Ac2c?
Does he bet-pot/call on flop with QcTc?
Does he not just shrug and shove Jc9c/JcTc/Tc9c?

If he opens a 20% range for this size preflop, bets pot with almost everything with equity and never shoves flop then I agree we have 34% vs. that range going into the turn.
Those are three pretty big assumptions though.

Then there's what he does if we check. Assuming he calls 100% of range and shoves 100% of range that gets to the turn isn't terrible, but it's not obviously correct either and even if true there's literally no difference between shove or x/c.

Is he more likely to fold the higher equity hands when we shove, or bluff the lower equity hands when we check?
If he has other actions than shove, when we check is that better for us?
Can we play rivers better or at least as well as V?

I don't think it's terrible to just shrug and shove turn.
I'm much less sure it's the best play against this guy in this spot.

Yeah, villain looks strong. It is just that he really should shove over the flop raise with almost anything he could call with. You are 23% against a big pair and and 66% against a flush draw, so he doesn't have to have a draw often to get 34%. I guess he could have a set.

The throwing out a 20 while rebuying when he usually makes it 12 is a little suspicious that he is trying to raise big without looking strong, so looks like QQ+. Villain's whole play looks a little weird. He may be the best player, but the level of play in 1/2 in a VFW hall is probably much worse than 1/3 in a casino.

If villain mostly has big pairs, then maybe it is OK to call with 66, expecting to get stacks in when you it. However, both players seem to have played the hand suboptimally, even without knowing villain's cards.

Turn changes nothing. You c/r’d the flop so bomb the turn. You’re still ahead of V’s range by a lot.

An American Legion hall running 1/2 with 1k buyins...dang.

Both of your play is so dependent on dynamic, I can't comment really. Other than to say, V thinks you're a TP nit, you called their open from SB, then x-r 875csc...: what else do you have but a set here?

So play the rest of the streets like you do. Especially when the turn double-FDs. If you think they're bamboozled enough to bet if you x, go for the elusive double x-r. Me, AP I guess you cover, so overbet pot to set up shove river. 250-300 or so.

I don't get calling pre here against a very large UTG raise by a villain described as the best player in the room. We went from calling to set mine to being in a rough spot against a described good player. Is a good player going to pay you off enough the times you flop the set? I was pretty surprised to see all of the suggestions to call or raise. I would have folded and moved on.

IMO misplayed preflop and on flop, but need to follow through and push turn.

That someone is in the Hendon Mob database just means they played significant stakes tournaments. If you play enough of them, you will cash in some.

The hand is partly interesting in that OP flopped an OESD, one of the best results without a set, and still was in a difficult situation. Small pps are very valuable multiway against loose low stakes players. Calling OOP HU, they are not so good, because you mostly fold to cbets, unless you want to call down or bluff not knowing where you are at. It is hard to get paid off enough in HU pots when you hit the set and it is good.

Fold pre.

Lots of great discussion here.

I checked the turn. He thought for an uncomfortable amount of time and checked behind.

Turn checkers, what are you doing with this river?

River (~$240): J♠

I'm stuck trying to think of a value hand you could rep that x/r's flop, checks the turn, but then bombs the river.

I suppose it would have to be something in the T9s vein. T9ss makes more sense on the river than the flop. T9cc makes more sense on the flop than the river. V would have to think you x/r'd flop and checked back turn with T9ss, or that you're willing to jam T9cc on the river. Not sure I'd buy either story if I'm V.

I mean...maybe though. You x/r T9s, taking that smallish 2.5x sizing, hoping he folds, he calls, you either already had or pick up the FD on the turn and decide to check, hoping he checks back, he does, then you hit your gin card on the river...maybe that could happen.

That's such a narrow range though, just two combos, unless he thinks you're just tired of his $hlt, and you're doing that with every T9 combo, and also jamming river with your sets that were going for the rare double-check-raise on the turn, even though every draw under the sun got there. I don't think anyone is playing a flopped set as a check on the turn, though.

Then again, I'm also kind of stuck figuring out V's range here. Tank-checking the turn seems like an over-pair wondering if you're capable of x/r'ing flop with a draw, or a draw wondering if you have a set and are hoping he takes the bait by betting, so you can check-jam on him. I can't blame the guy if he's stumped by this bizarre line you've taken.

Seems like he'd be more likely to call flop with the club draw, less likely to show up with a spade draw, so if he has a busted club draw or an over-pair, a jam folds out better, maybe. But you're just torching if he shows up with spades, or can't find the fold button with QQ+, or he ran into a set with JJ, or he has T9s.

I don't really like the idea of checking to check-call, hoping he'll bluff. He could bluff with a better hand, like 99 or 87s. And he could check back with hands that will win at showdown, but would more than likely fold, like A7cc.

If we jam and he tank-calls, and we're planning to reload, at least he knows we're capable, so he has more to think about the next time we clash. If we check and he wins at showdown, all we're doing is reinforcing his impression that we don't know how to structure a good bluff.

If by some freak chance he folds 6c6s face up, be sure to show him your red 66.

ETA - just re-read the OP and remembered he potted it on the flop. Dollars to donuts that's an over-pair, not a draw, unless it's exactly T9ss. I think I can get behind a jam here, but I'd be praying he doesn't have JJ or QQ+ with 1 spade that decides to get curious.