Calculation To Determine Point At Which Rake Becomes Unbeatable
There are a lot of private 5-10 games (nlhe and plo) in my area. Blinds are usually 5-10 with frequent straddling (open straddle). The game are incredibly soft, however, the rake is ridiculously high. It's usually either a 10% rake with a cap of 50€ or a 5% unlimited cap. On top of that they commonly have an hourly high-hand promotion for which they take an additional 10€ from every pot that surpasses 300€ (pretty much every pot that is) which the winner then gets once an hour.
I know from other threads that such a rake is basically a crime and probably not beatable long-term. However, is there a definitive way to calculate if it is or isn't?
4 Replies
To determine if a poker game with a high rake is beatable long-term, you need to calculate whether your expected win rate exceeds the effective rake you’re paying, expressed in a comparable metric like big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100). Your private 5-10 NLHE and PLO games have blinds of €5-€10, frequent straddling (e.g., €20 open), soft competition, and a brutal rake structure: either 10% with a €50 cap or 5% with no cap, plus an additional €10 per pot over €300 for an hourly high-hand promotion (common, given the action). Here’s how to definitively assess it.
Step 1: Calculate Rake Impact
Assume 30 hands per hour (typical for live games) and estimate average pot sizes based on the stakes and softness.
10% Rake, €50 Cap:
€400 pot (reasonable with straddling): 10% = €40 rake.
€500+ pot: €50 cap applies.
Say €45 average rake per hand (pots often hit the cap): €45 × 30 = €1,350/hour ÷ 30 = €45/hand.
5% Rake, No Cap:
€400 pot: 5% = €20.
€1,000 pot (PLO, big action): 5% = €50.
Average €30/hand (mixed pots): €30 × 30 = €900/hour ÷ 30 = €30/hand.
High-Hand Promo: €10 per €300+ pot, nearly every hand qualifies (soft, straddled games).
30 pots/hour = €300 extra raked. Over 100 hands (3.33 hours), €1,000 raked total. High-hand pays €200-€300 to one winner hourly. For 9 players, you win 1/9th (11%), so ~€33 back per 100 hands. Net loss: €1,000 - €33 = €967 ÷ 100 = €9.67/hand.
Total Rake:
10% + Promo: €45 + €9.67 = €54.67/hand.
5% + Promo: €30 + €9.67 = €39.67/hand.
Step 2: Convert to bb/100
Big blind = €10.
10% + Promo: €54.67 × 100 = €5,467 ÷ €10 = 546.7 bb/100.
5% + Promo: €39.67 × 100 = €3,967 ÷ €10 = 396.7 bb/100.
Step 3: Your Win Rate
In a soft game (high VPIP, loose play), a skilled player might win 5-10 bb/100 pre-rake in a low-rake environment (e.g., 3% cap $15). “Incredibly soft” could push 15-20 bb/100—say, €150-€200 profit per 100 hands before rake. Against fish (50%+ VPIP, calling stations), 20 bb/100 is aggressive but plausible.
Step 4: Net Win Rate
10% + Promo: 20 bb/100 - 546.7 bb/100 = -526.7 bb/100.
5% + Promo: 20 bb/100 - 396.7 bb/100 = -376.7 bb/100.
Even at 30 bb/100 (elite edge): -516.7 and -366.7 bb/100.
Definitive Calculation
Log Data: Track 100 hands—record pots, rake paid, high-hand wins. Average rake/hand = (Total € raked ÷ Hands).
Pre-Rake Win Rate: (€ won before rake ÷ €10) ÷ Hands × 100 = bb/100.
Net: Pre-rake bb/100 - (Rake €/hand ÷ €10 × 100). Positive = beatable.
Verdict
Unbeatable. The rake’s obscene—10% capped alone might flirt with break-even (10-15 bb/100 drag) if pots stay small and promo’s skipped, but 5% uncapped scales too hard, and €10/pot sinks it. You’d need 400-500 bb/100 pre-rake—impossible long-term, even against drunks. Standard casino rake (3-5%, €15 cap) lets skill shine; this is a vacuum. Walk away or negotiate it down—softness can’t outrun that bleed.
To determine if a poker game with a high rake is beatable long-term, you need to calculate whether your expected win rate exceeds the effective rake you’re paying, expressed in a comparable metric like big blinds per 100 hands (bb/100). Your private 5-10 NLHE and PLO games have blinds of €5-€10, frequent straddling (e.g., €20 open), soft competition, and a brutal rake structure
Your calculation is fine as far as it goes, but you are assuming that ALL of the rake is paid by OP. Even if the rake is a flat rake of 1BB, by that calculation, you could never beat the game. A flat 1BB rake is 100bb/100 and even an elite player against fish would only win about 20BB/100 pre-rake. Obviously people can and do beat low-rake games (and even low rake games generally are >1bb per hand on average), so something is wrong with this analysis.
A better way to look at it is to treat rake as an opponent - an insanely good opponent with, in this case a win rate of 300-500 bb/100 as per your analysis. Can you beat a game with such an opponent playing? Well, like any winning opponent, rake’s “EV” comes at the expense of all the other players at the table. It probably is difficult to assign how much of rake’s EV comes from a particular player, but a reasonable simplification is just to take an average. At a 9-handed table the rake would average 40-60BB/100 taken from each player’s win rate. That still is a very high number that probably makes the game unbeatable.
A second quibble is that the promo rake is not really rake in terms of EV, assuming that the high hand pays out 100% of the promo drop. Your analysis omits OPs EV from the high hand payouts. If the payouts equal the amount taken, the promo drop would be zero EV.
Your calculation is fine as far as it goes, but you are assuming that ALL of the rake is paid by OP. Even if the rake is a flat rake of 1BB, by that calculation, you could never beat the game. A flat 1BB rake is 100bb/100 and even an elite player against fish would only win about 20BB/100 pre-rake. Obviously people can and do beat low-rake games (and even low rake games general
I’d argue it makes sense to treat the promo drop as rake, and then it’s just incremental value when you hit it. If the promo drop is the difference between beatable and not beatable it’s not a good game, and worse players are going to hit the promo a disproportionate frequency, especially if there are eligible limit games in the room
Sorry to hijack thread, but worth discussing. What is a fair rakeback deal is such a game? say its a 5-5 game cut at 10% max $50.
