KJs flops TP, V delay x/r

3b pre is far better than calling

id check back the flop.

as played id check the turn.

as played id call. he might have TT. he might also have some random draw. you have outs. call and see what happens.

Grunch:

PRE - I'd 3B with KJs on the BTN vs a semi-aggro and possibly tilted V. He's going to make mistakes post-flop, OOP, and we want to capitalize on that.

FLOP - Assume that V is checking range from OOP as the PFR. What does our 2/3p bet rep here, when we didn't 3B pre?

We're unlikely to have JJ or TT, so we're pretty capped at JT and 66, plus a boat-load of draws. V can put us in the blender if he check-raises. If we're going to stab at this, we should probably just take smaller sizing. Yes, that's going to induce more x/r's from V, but our hand is strong enough to call a x/r.

Alternatively, we can just check it back and see what he does on the turn.

TURN - we have top pair, 2nd kicker, with the 2nd NFD, on a double-two-flush and fairly connected board, where both players will have a ton of bluff combos. We should just check-back here, with our showdown value, to let V bluff the river.

Our 2/3 pot barrel doesn't accomplish much. V isn't folding better, and probably not folding any of his good draws. All we're doing is creating a bloated pot with a marginal hand.

I like V's x/r. He can credibly rep all the over-pairs, plus JJ, TT, 66, and JT for value. He can also have a ton of combo-draws here, that are all indifferent to a call or jam from us.

Our hand has too much going on to want to fold, when he has so many bluffs in his range, but I don't love calling or jamming. Common wisdom is that V is going to raise all his flopped sets and 2P on the flop, but lots of good / aggro players will delay that x/r until the turn. We're a 3:1 dog vs JT and a 4:1 dog vs 66.

It feels like we trapped ourselves by not 3B'ing pre, and then betting too large on the flop and turn. He's got too many really strong value hands in his range, and all his best bluffs are going to have decent equity.

Turn x/r's are seriously under-bluffed. I think we just have to rage-fold.

fold

We have a bluff catcher now, it's pretty easy fold.

Question probably should be, if a K or J comes on the river, do we call the river shove?

Opponents has all the sets for value, some KQ, some AK/AQ, some clubs for semi bluffs.

The more passive he is, the more he has for value. The more aggressive he is, the more semi bluffs he has.

Don't like the turn bet on the very wet board. When he x/rs, he can have draws, which he may or may not have hit. Thin value bet put you in bad situation.

I'd just rip over the turn bet, villain line seems fishy. We can't fold now, but can incorrectly fold river.

Result: