1-3 Live (Double paired board on turn)

PRE - I'd 3B bigger. Most low-stakes players are going to over-call and under-4B. We'd like to play this HU and IP, with a bigger pot. I'd make it at least $60, if not $75.

FLOP - The SPR is low enough that we don't need to bet three streets to get stacks in, nor do we need to c-bet large. I think a $50 c-bet or check-back is fine.

Nothing "wrong" with a $60 c-bet into $165, but it's a smidge large on this board, where V is likely to have more 8x and 55 in his range than we will. This sort of board texture is dangerous to c-bet with over-pairs in a 3B pot. We're just not going to have a lot of 8x or 55 in our range. So if we do c-bet, we want to go small.

TURN - Weird spot. Think I'd be checking back this card a fair bit, for deception and pot control. We have showdown value, and hate getting check-raised. We can call a lot of river bets, if we check back here.

When we bet 1/3 pot, we're almost asking V to x/r. But I'd still think this is a very under-bluffed spot, and it's hard to figure out what bluffs V could have that make sense on a double-paired board.

The combos that come to mind are 99, 77, 66, and 44 - pairs that block our combos of 98, 87, 76, 65, and 54, but most human opponents just aren't finding those bluffs. And we're not even supposed to have many 8x or 5x combos in our range when we 3B pre.

Maybe occasionally an opponent does this with AX, hoping to push us off a chop, but that sort of play usually happens on the river, when the turn checks through, not when the turn gets barreled.

It's a miserable spot to be in with an over-pair. Against an unknown V, I would mostly fold here. If I thought V was good enough to see how unbalanced we are when we c-bet flop and barrel turn with all our over-pairs, and make this play as a bluff, I might call. But I really need to know V is ultra-capable, and most low-stakes players simply aren't.

Part of the problem goes back to our pre-flop raise size. If we make it $60 or $75, he should be folding out all his low-middling pairs and SC's, because he's not getting the correct IO to call.

He should be folding all those hands when we make it $55, too, but our smaller 3B size might look like weakness, and induce him to call wider, such that he could conceivably arrive here with 8x and 5x combos.