give me your turn and river plan with AK high.
1/3 effective stack $1100
i open $15 with AcKc UTG. 2 callers. laggy button makes it $90. i 4b to $225 (i dislike this should have made it $200). button calls.
flop QQ2 two spades one club.
i bet 1/4 pot btn calls.
your plan for the rest of the hand?
i feel like mastering whiffed AK high in a 4 bet pot while deep is essential becoming good at this game, so very interested in your thoughts.
7 Replies
I think barrel on low non spades 7 and lower.
I guess he has pairs qq thru 88, some Axs AK AQ maybe some KQs QJs.
Maybe bet red j and t too as they eliminate some suited q and give you equity. On high spades id rather try to realise equity by checking though. Same on red a or k
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It's hard for me because I'm not 4! AK this deep because its so hard to know where you are OOP. If I'm 100 bb, sure lets just gii and hope for the best. But 350+ bbs deep, you don't want to gii. I'd call the 3! and if I spike an A or K then we can play a sizable pot especially if V is laggier and might have hands like weaker Ax or Kx that we have dominated.
Flop: I'm checking 100% of my range here. I doubt V is too worried about you having AQ too much, so all his pps are going to call. The only hands folding here are complete air if he somehow has AJ, AT - hands you have crushed. I'd check, see what kind of sizing he goes for and evaluate. Again, you don't really want to play a huge pot, if all the money goes in you are losing almost all the time.
The bottom line is that the pot is already too big for your hand, so you are kind of in a punt and pray, or give up spot. Maybe if he has AK he checks it down too. AK is a nice hand to keep the aggression up in relatively small pots or to bully the short stacks, but when stacks are deep you don't want to be playing a massive pot OOP with it. The flop is the easiest place to check, because you would often check your AA/AQ/QQ on this flop. So he can't exactly go nuts with any two. I'd check range, then gauge his bet and proceed from there. If it checks through, then you can look to apply pressure to the 88-JJ portion of his range.
AP: There is $550ish in the pot with $775 behind and we have a bluff catcher OOP. V has all the AQ, KQ maybe QJ if he is loose. You have QQ and maybe not even that. Our flop bet does nothing to narrow his range because he is calling with AQ. If you have AA, KK, or AK he wants you to barrel off. Some players might raise their lower pairs like 88-JJ here or if he has some kind of total air he might try to bluff. His flat call removes many of his bluffs and maybe the lower pairs. It makes his range super strong. If you go fire, fire, you're all in. So you have one more street of play. If you pick up some equity, maybe you rip it, hope he doesn't have a Q, and if he does maybe you can suck out. If the turn is a blank, jamming just feels like a punt. Maybe you can get JJ and lower to fold, but I think you run into a Q or KK a lot. You're jamming into an uncapped range that includes inelastic hands you're drawing almost dead against. That often doesn't end well.
Foreword: next time, please include pot size and effective stack on flop and turn.
I agree with the 4bet pre, and this deep I like the size as well, assuming we are not scared money: we are oop with a very strong hand, so I like reducing the spr in order to reduce V's positional advantage postflop; we might even go slightly bigger actually.
When V flats the 4bet, we should think about his tentative range ... any idea? For instance, many otherwise laggy players become quite tight in 3bet or 4bet pots ...
Flop (pot should be ~480 with 875 effective behind) is most probably a range bet in theory, and also the size seems about right.
As said before, here reads on V become important; anyway, in a vacuum, I don't think V has more QX than H (I disagree with Yamihere): for instance, you should 4bet with AQ at some frequency while he shoud fold all the AQo (and possibly also AQs) to the 4bet. If he called the 4bet, for 75bb and ~20% of his stack, with KQ or QJ, God bless him.
Turn, the pot is ~720, with ~750 behind, correct?
I would check on a J and on a spade, and likely shove on a club; everything else is extremely villain dependent, although I suspect that a solver would shove more often than not.
Would villain fold AK and JJ-TT to a shove on a blank turn? How many combos of KK and AA can he have? Does he always stack off with KK in this spot?
Grunch:
PRE - I think your 4B size is fine, OOP and deep.
FLOP - I recently read something about how much Qx there is in the BTN's range in raised pots. Don't remember if it was SRP's, 3B pots, or 4B pots, but my gut says V will have more Qx in his range than we will, so we want to be somewhat careful here.
Think we should mostly check here, because we're OOP, and because the Qx board favors V. But a small c-bet also seems okay. Probably checking most turns, unless we pick up equity.
Interesting situation if the turn is an A or K. We could be boated up with AA/KK, and he can't really raise if he has Qx. I'd think even QQ would just smooth call if we barrel. So I think we could barrel small on an A or K.
I suppose we can discount some AQ/KQ combos from his range, with card removal, and thinking he's probably not calling a 2.5x 4B with worse Qx. Maybe we just give him four combos of AQs/KQs, plus 1 of QQ.
If he doesn't have a lot of Qx, then he'd be weighted towards spade draws and PP's below the Q, plus some AK combos we might be able to fold out if we barrel.
So, I think we should barrel on any non-spade A, K, Q, J, T, or any club, maybe also barrel any low disconnected cards (2-5), and check all the middling cards like 6-9 that might make V a boat.
Since we have to fold if V raises, I think we need to take like 1/2 pot sizing - large enough to not induce light raises, small enough that we're not torching.
River action is going to depend a lot on the board and if we pick up any live reads or tells from V.
I suppose we can discount some AQ/KQ combos from his range, with card removal, and thinking he's probably not calling a 2.5x 4B with worse Qx. Maybe we just give him four combos of AQs/KQs, plus 1 of QQ.
If he doesn't have a lot of Qx, then he'd be weighted towards spade draws and PP's below the Q, plus some AK combos we might be able to fold out if we barrel.
Agreed it isn't a lot of combos of Qx - 5 if we assume he is folding AQo/KQo which V definitely "should" in theory. But how many spade draws does he have? AK, A5, and ??? Some people have an extreme affinity for KJs so lets give him that. That's 3 combos. Only if we give him AJ and AT or maybe a random 65s we get to the number of Q combos. But that seems like a fairly wide range to call a 4-bet. I don't think the flush is all that scary, I think we can probably guesstimate 3-4 combos.
When he flats flop his range should be at most:
Inelastic: (going to call us down on most runouts)
5 - Qx
3 - KK
1 - AA (assume AA is usually 5-bet but maybe a random slowplay)
8 combos.
Elastic:
4 - FD
2 - AK wo FDFD
6 x each pp. How many pps will V have? JJ sure, but as you got to TT, 99 it gets questionable. If we go 88-JJ its
24 combos.
roughly 30 combos total.
So V has maybe 38 combos in his range. 32 of them are ahead of us, three chop with us, we only beat three of them. I think that is way wider than he probably is IRL.
If V will always fold JJ and weaker, we win against 30/38 combos. Yet even with that, a jam on a complete brick turn, we are risking $775 to win $550. We win $550 without contest 30/38 (79% of the time). But we lose $775 over 99% of the time because we are drawing dead against his inelastic range except KK where we have 7% equity going to the river. So while we win very frequently, even if V has a lot of pps and would fold all of them, our shove has an EV loss of greater than $300.
If the turn is a club, we get a bit better because now we have about 20% equity going to the river against his inelastic range. So we win a $2, 100 pot 20%ish of the time. So we get positive EV if he has 88-JJ, folds 88-JJ and we have a FD OTT. Without the FD, we don't have positive EV on a turn jam unless his range is a ton wider.
What if we go smaller to cap our losses when running into the nuts?
If we bet half pot, is a loose aggressive villain going to fold 88-JJ? Or is he going to come over the top sometimes? I don't think we get many pure folds when V calls the flop. If you are V with 88 somehow on the flop and you decide to flat the flop - is your plan really to check it down and hope that you somehow win? That seems like a horrible plan.
I think a passive player would fold 88-JJ OTF, having missed their set mining. An aggressive player would probably raise the flop, but might decide to flat and go for the big bluff OTT to a small bet or check. So if we bet half pot, I think that invites the weaker end of Vs range (which still has us beat) to jam. Obviously we have to fold without the FD, and if we picked up the FD its worse because now we are gii against JJ which might have folded if we shoved.
The fundamental problem here is that we are at the bottom of our range, and V's range has been condensed so much that the bottom of his range beats us and V's range is really inelastic and completely uncapped. To get anything in his range to fold, I think we have to bet big, and I'd estimate at least 30% of his range is going to snap call anything if we assume he is super loose preflop.
In reality, we are probably getting snapped more frequently because I really feel like I'm reaching to come up with 38 combos in his preflop range. I think V probably doesn't have 88-JJ at full count because I believe V wouldn't 3-bet those 100% pre, wouldn't call a 4! 100% pre, and would raise those OTF at least sometimes. So more realistically, he has maybe half the combos of that range. And if you assume only 12 pp combos that might fold, the math changes in a very poor direction for us especially if he might sometimes call down with JJ. I think we can get to a point where even jamming when a FD comes OTT is pure punt.
FLOP - I recently read something about how much Qx there is in the BTN's range in raised pots. Don't remember if it was SRP's, 3B pots, or 4B pots, but my gut says V will have more Qx in his range than we will, so we want to be somewhat careful here.
Well, there is a big difference between a SRP and a 4B pot in terms of calling ranges.
Since we have to fold if V raises, I think we need to take like 1/2 pot sizing - large enough to not induce light raises, small enough that we're not torching.
If I am not going wrong, OTT the pot is ~720 and we have a psb (~750) behind : is b/f really a option here?
Responding to @Yamihere and @Niemand...
OP has stated in other threads that his user name is not ironic, and that he actually is in fact a nitty old man. What we do as OP here is going to depend a lot on what we think V is doing in response to the nitty old dude who 4B's pre.
First thing to figure out is whether or not V has any 5B range at all. If so, and assuming it's exactly and only AA, we can give V a range of KK, QQ, and maybe some strong AX combos, plus maybe some TT/JJ that was too stubborn to fold pre. If V simply doesn't have any 5B range, then we can also give him AA.
If we want to give V a range that's wider than that, like putting some AQ in there, or KQs, okay, but I'd think V would have to be pretty LAG, and not really care about OP's nitty image. But for the sake of trying to figure out what to do post-flop, let's say V has all the PP's from TT-AA, some AX, and some QX, but likely just AQ and KQ, not QJ or worse QX.
Usually in 4B pots, the pre-flop 4B'er is allowed to c-bet small and barrel on most boards, because he's repping such a strong range. In theory, we can go bet-bet-bet with AA, KK, AK, AQ, and the 1 combo of QQ. But in practice, the fact that we just have AK, and V could have AA/KK/QQ and some AQ/KQ makes me hesitant to bet at all.
I don't know that it makes much difference that this is a 4B pot, not a 3B or SRP. Hero isn't going to have as much QQ, AQ, or KQ as V will.
If we give V some AA/KK too, then we're playing this dangerous game of trying to make V fold TT-JJ, AK that isn't AKss, and maybe push him off AA/KK by repping Qx, when the only Qx we're likely to have when we 4B pre is the 1 combo of QQ, which we can't have if V is sitting there with AQ/KQ, knowing hero is either over-playing AA/KK, or he's FOS with AK.
I'd prefer to check this flop and basically give up if we don't pick up equity on the turn. But I don't mind c-betting small, and barreling small, because that's what we'd do with AA/KK.
I hadn't done the math, but if we'll only have a PSB behind going to the turn, I'd say our flop 1/4 pot c-bet was too large, and we should have gone smaller, like 1/6 to 1/5 pot, so we can barrel the turn without becoming pot-stuck.
But if we bet 1/6 to 1/5 pot on flop and 1/4 or 1/3 pot on turn, and V raises, yeah, I think we need to fold. But I'm not expecting V to raise much, either for value or as a bluff. If he's got us beat, we probably won't find out until the river.
And that's also why I'd prefer to just check the flop. V is likely to check back a lot. So we can make a delayed c-bet on the turn, and barrel river small, with enough behind that we can fold if V wakes up and puts in a gross raise.
