Nasty spot with a set in the Sunday Million

Interesting, thanks.

Lol thanks.

So - plot twist. I folded, and the SB folded...

Well SB folding at least proves both ranges weren't totally nutted.

Nath, flop checking through just means that you arrive at this spot with every combo that continues preflop. There will be some pretty junky hands in there. Especially from the BB. Two pair isn't the absolute bottom of range.

Also, another way to look at it. Where are we at in our own range after flop checks through? We're pretty close to the top. If we're folding this I guess we're pretty much only continuing with straights, the effective nuts?

I mean there's really no point arguing like there's a correct answer one way or another. Yeah if you're always up against a straight fold. There are undoubtedly player types where this will be the case.

Definitely I am very close to the top of my range here. I guess the question is how wide do I have to call given the turn action in order to remain "unexploitable" - and that boils down to how strong you read the SB and BB to be.

It seems like a very close spot, and the correct answer isn't clear.

I wouldn't be too worried about exploitability in this specific spot, facing aggressive actions from multiple opponents. You definitely want to make sure you're defending enough vs. a single bet or raise, but this spot is unique enough that you are unlikely to face it again with this exact configuration and these specific opponents. Just try to make the best decision you can in the moment.

I still get the money in here though unless I somehow have a read that one of my opponents ONLY has straights. Basically they would have to be super-nits, especially given that the flop checked through.

To try to be a little more productive about the conversation, here's another question to ask yourself. You mentioned before that you wish you had jammed over the initial turn bet.

If you eventually folded a set of 9s because you characterize your opponents as being super-nits, what are you expecting them to call your jam with that you beat?

Another question. Assuming you're folding hands as strong as a set of 9s and SB is also presumably folding a very strong hand to the BB shove, then how wide can the BB shove as a bluff/semibluff?

It seems to me that those pair plus draw combos that no one seems to think the BB could have would have to be insanely profitable semi-bluffs if you and the SB are calling off this tight.

Aren’t all spots unique?

This is almost certainly true, but requires a level of skill and commitment from BB which also requires great hand and range reading abilities.** The more I think about this hand the less I believe that folding is a mistake.

**or a total lack of understanding and just a gamble-led approach?

What I meant is that if you overfold to a single bet or single checkraise your opponent can continuously repeat these actions in similar spots, profiting over time from your leak. So it's more important to defend appropriately in those easily repeatable spots.

That being said if I'm your opponent and I know you're folding a set of 9s and the SB is folding all combos of 2 pair or worse then I'm going to be jamming wide to exploit your tendencies. It's just hard for your opponent to know that for certain in the moment.

Anyway I'm going to respectfully bow out of the conversation as it's getting a little circular. I suspect it's a matter us playing for different stakes and with different opponent types. People advocating for a fold and those advocating for a call may both be right given the tendencies of the players they're generally facing.

Yes you're right - it's a rare spot given that it's a multiway pot and there is major aggression coming from two players; unlikely to arise very often in games in the future and hero doesn't lose much by slightly overfolding here; it wouldn't be a leak that we would not need to be overly worried about.

We were only about 100 hands into the tournament, so obviously it's a very small sample, but the BB had been playing extremely tight.

I wished I had jammed the turn simply because it sucked to put in 5bbs and then fold a set to the subsequent turn aggression - I just wanted to realise my equity, even if I had gotten it in behind. I could have done this by calling the all-in, but then of course the conditions are much worse and I'm a lot more likely to be behind. If I jam the turn at the first opportunity, I guess they can call me with a set of 8s, big draws, two pairs etc that I beat.

If I am folding a set of 9s to this action then absolutely the BB could shove as a bluff/semi bluff very wide - but it would be very risky because he may get me to fold but the SB appeared to be already pot-committed with their check-raise (they clearly weren't, as they also folded to the BB jam - but I imagine most players are not folding very often in the SB's shoes, so I don't think the BB can get too out of line).