Backdoor 2nd Nut flush facing a 3-bet OTR.
1-3 live, $500 eff.
Ep bets $10, 6 ways to the flop.
Hero (J❤️Q❤️😉 calls from BB.
Flop($60): 4♠️8♣️A❤️
Checks through
Turn($60):10 ❤️
SB bets $15, 3 callers including me.
River($120): 9❤️
Villain bets $60
Hero raises $175
Villain Jams for $475
Hero?
12 Replies
Weird spot - the only nut flushes he can really have are K8,K7,K6,etc and I would think out of the SB he folds a lot of these low Kx suited hands. There's a lot of 87s,86s,65s,etc that make more sense for him to call pre with, but would he jam those here I don't know. I'm not folding here - there's few Kx combos, he might be overvaluing a lower flush or even worse, and maybe some low frequency of a bluff. Especially at 1/3 where people's mindsets are all over the place.
Weird spot - the only nut flushes he can really have are K8,K7,K6,etc and I would think out of the SB he folds a lot of these low Kx suited hands.
It's $1/$3 with a $10 raise and four people already in the pot. So many $1/$3 players think that multi-way "prices" them in. I'd give V all the Kx flushes.
In my mind, the only question is whether V would jam sets, two pair, straights and worse flushes. If he would, we have to call.
I don't think most $1/$3 players are finding a 3! jam with those. If we bet and then he jammed it might be a call, but since we came over the top I think the straights and sets just call. Therefore, I'm finding a fold here AP.
Preflop is fine, especially closing the action. Flop standard.
Turn: What can sb V lead with here? Sets and NFD like Kh8h or maybe J9s. The flat call is fine getting 5-1, though we risk being blown off our equity by a raise behind us. There's a good argument for raising the turn here with FD and double gutter.
River: Can sb V lead into 3 players with value sizing anything short of the nuts against 3 players? Admittedly V reps thin, especially when the 9h falls because it blocks logical stuff like Kh9h and 9h8h with which he could have called preflop.
But our raise is just too thin I think. Why not let the Vs behind us call down light getting a high price? Why do we want to fold them out?
AP: we get 8-3 to call and I suppose we cannot fold second nuts at this price. Definitely not a happy spot.
Preflop - 3! or fold with range Don't get involved in these bloated family pots with holdings that are going to hit just enough to lose big pots.
With QJs specifically, I'm 3! Make it $100, you take it down a lot and have some playability if someone calls. You'll get way more credit for AA/KK than you deserve.
Pre is ok but I wouldn't blame anybody who wants to fold this spot. I don't really like raising here without any reads. We would probably need to make it at least 60 and then play a huge pot OOP with a relatively marginal hand. Plus there is definitely people like me who flat AK initially and then plan on re-popping against any squeeze.
Rest looks okay. I think contemplating a call on the river is worthwhile with 2 players still to act. As played it is such a weird spot since he cannot have QJT9 of hearts. I think it a probably a fold, however one that I would probably never make against unknown at 1/2. Expect to be shown Khxh like always though.
AP: we get 8-3 to call and I suppose we cannot fold second nuts at this price. Definitely not a happy spot.
I'm not sure our hand strength matters. Second nuts is still a bluff catcher because V is repping exactly the nuts.
By the math, we need to win more than 27% of the time. So we just need to determine if V is bluffing more than about 1/4 of the time in this spot (regardless of whether V is aware he is bluffing).
PRE - I'd 3B to $100 pre.
FLOP - Obviously check.
TURN - Think I'd min-click it, just to shut the players behind us out. If we get raised, fold.
RIVER - I'd just flat call. It's hard for him to be value-betting a lower flush here, when he's betting into four opponents, and any of the other three could have us beat. As played, fold to the 3B.
I am also in the camp of raising the turn. Prob 45-50.
If I was closing the action pf I'm much more in the camp of just calling vs making an obvious squeeze to play a bloated pot OOP against a range that prob has us crush. If I were to 3b it would have to be a chunky size like 75-100.
Any reads on V would be helpful; age, experience, how do they handle themselves? What's your image? How does V view you?
AP on river I don't know how we fold. Yes we could be beat by K8hh-K2hh but thats 7 combos and I only see K8h possibly betting turn and why would he want to and possibly face a raise and get blown of their equity?
There are more value hands that V could be overplaying. 76hh, QJss, QJcc 44, 88, TT, 99, 87hh, AT, A9 76ss, 76cc
I'd think 88/44 out of the SB would bet more than stereotypical block bet size on the Turn. Even if they were going for chunky x-r on Flop, I'd think they'd go for more than 25% leading out.
Lower flushes, unless they think H can fold a big hand (do they?) probably just call River vs 3! I think H is done and I'd fold.
Preflop spot sucks, can argue for all three options.
Yes, it's 7 into 53 and we have a pretty hand but it's so much more problematic than even 22. We are OOP vs. almost everyone and have worse equity than a 20% range.
Flop is obviously, fine. But the fact we fold if anyone breaths on it exemplifies the problems.
Turn illustrates why preflop isn't just auto call 7. We probably have to raise, but it kind of sucks. Call is obvious low stakes bingo play praying that nobody else raises, and even overcalls aren't that great.
River again illustrates why preflop isn't just auto call 7. Just sigh calling the bet is probably best 4 ways, the size should be bigger (or maybe much smaller) for NF but people will randomly bet half pot without thinking about the fact that they shouldn't bet straights for this size here. Our raise says we think V is betting too wide, and assumes he'll call more than others would overcall his bet ... and we block Jxs.
After the raise we have to fold without amazing reads, because most bad players will be calling K2s pure in SB (and will continue to when they remember they didn't get raised off preflop and then got piles in with the nuts post) and then happily shove the nuts but bluffs or worse value are very unlikely (maybe V has T9 and misread the board thinking he has a FH). There are enough bad players with 87s or something that it'll also hurt occasionally, but still not enough to call.
I’d fold or call.
You need to include some info on V for this thread to have any value. You provided as little information as possible in your post.
I find preflop very tricky. I think there are arguments for all 3 plays. It doesn't seem anyone has much just flatting this small opening, but with this many callers there is always a chance someone is waiting in the weeds with an intentionally or passively played monster. But playing this hand OOP in a bloated pot with an SPR of 8 is also a little meh. But for this price closing the action I guess I can't hate on a ~nutmining call.
Any reads on SB? What's our image? SB is one of the ones who could be slowplaying this flop OOP, but would he then bet so little on the turn when the board becomes draw heavy? But it's also not impossible for someone to be slowplaying such a dry flop behind us. I just realized how massive a draw we've picked up, and since we could also tell the story of slowplaying the flop OOP, I think I lean to a raise with thoughts of perhaps bluffing the river UI.
With this many turn callers, I think I might lean to just calling the river bet. I'm attempting to get value by having a weak overcaller and meanwhile don't have to risk anything if someone raises. A river reraise at a typical LLSNL table is the immortal nuts 99% of the time and a misread hand 1% of the time, so I fold to the jam.
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