AK turn decision
1/3 NL 8 handed.
I've been card dead for 3 hours so I have a tight image. BB seems competent. He's been pretty aggressive pre with opens and has 3 bet a few times but no show.
I open on the button with AsKc to 15, folded to BB who calls.
(30 in pot) QdKhJs...He checks, I bet 20, he calls.
(70 in pot) QdKhJs2d....He checks, I bet 40 he raises to 110 and then quickly turns his attention to the waitress taking his order.
I'm looking for feedback on my bet sizes on the flop and turn. Should I have checked the turn?
How should I proceed as played?
7 Replies
So one tell here is if he's really interested in food/drink while making a raise here, unlikely to be an outright bluff. Players don't usually make big bluffs when they are distracted. This is likely 2p or better, perhaps some combo draw like JdTd.
We'll also likely be facing a big river bet on a likely blank.
Inclinde to make a tight fold, but its close.
I'll assume 100bb stacks of $300.
I'm fine with preflop, although with zero limpers I think I might open to just $10 (at least assuming 100bbs).
This really ain't the greatest flop. A lot of his broadway hands have outflopped us or picked up great equity (like a pair + draw) that an aggro player could play aggro (and we really don't want to face a raise). And if he's whiffed he's often drawing close to dead and is unlikely to payoff anything. Against a passive ABC calling station a bet is fine but against him I think I would lean to a check back.
If betting the flop I would probably now check back the turn for the same reasons. Some draws have picked up extra equity and we just don't really want to be facing aggression / building a large pot with this extremely mediocre hand. I would probably sigh fold at this point.
GcluelessNLnoobG
IÂ’m not in love with the big flop bet. IÂ’m in the $10-15 or check camp and reevaluate turns
Preflop is fine.
Flop I think we can mix c- bets in with some checks.
Turn: we aren't going to get 3 streets of value from this board even when we're ahead. We should check after betting flop and perhaps delay c-bet when x'g flop.
AP turn: we get 2-1 and I suppose he's get tons of semi-bluffs here in addition to two-pairs and AT. If we call, what river do we want to see other than Tc/s/h? The pot would be 220 with 150 behind, assuming 300eff to start.
Assuming V would jam any river except T, we're going to get 5-2 to call river with TPTK. Unless we're willing to call river all-in getting 5-2, we should fold the turn.
I was the effective stack with 400.
Grunch:
PRE - looks fine.
FLOP - c-bet smaller, like 1/2 pot. Yes, we have TPTK, but V is going to have a ton of 2P, and some straight combos that didn't raise pre.
TURN - If we c-bet the flop small, and on a less connected board, I'd like to over-bet brick turns. Here, it's a brick turn, but the board is so connected, and we c-bet so large on the flop, I think it's better to bet slightly smaller, like 40%-50% pot, with a plan to fold if we get raised.
As played, I think we can fold. Turn check-raises are under-bluffed. Three-broadway boards are under-bluffed. We didn't give V any reason to think we're weak, when we raise pre, c-bet the flop for 2/3 pot, and barrel for over 1/2 pot. Our range is un-capped, yet he's raising when we barrel.
It looks like V is happy to shovel money in with a made hand that doesn't love the BDFD appearing.
