AJ in a 3bet pot on a Kxx dry board
5/5
~$900 effective
CO - unknown
CO raises to $20, Hero(SB) A♠J♥ 3bets to $100, CO calls
Flop($205) K♥ 7♣ 2♠
Hero bets $100, CO calls
Turn($405) T♦
Hero($700 left) - ?
At this point, I realized I messed up the hand. Something’s off with my strategy and bet sizing. The turn slightly improves my hand, but with the SPR, I hate all my options.
7 Replies
I don't see a need to 3-bet preflop to more than $75.
Similarly, since the K smashes your range in this 3-bet pot, I also don't see a need to bet more than 1/3 pot on the flop.
Flop: I’m also in the $75 bet camp.
Turn: When we pick up the draw to the nuts on turn I’m setting up river for a bluff and CONTINUING to bet
AP: turn bet $225-250
Preflop: I'm folding AJo 5/5 unless I know the player to be bad or LAG, 180 bb deep and out of position. I'm happy to 3b whale/lag.
Flop: did we really cap CO's range with our 3b? He closed the action. This is a dry board. If I'm c-betting here, it's smaller.
Turn: We have compressed V's range with big preflop and flop bets. I'm not even sure we capped his range preflop. He's not folding to our bet with a turn T, which really is V's range card.
We have created a very difficult spot. If we check, he may blast off. If we bet, we leave awkward sizing for river bluffing.
I guess I reluctantly advocate a block-bet of 100 or so. He probably cannot raise us, as we are uncapped. We would leave 600 behind with a 600 pot to the river. This gives us the chance to bluff broadway rivers better for our range, paired board except T.
The 3bet preflop seems a tad too large, ~80 would probably be more standard.
The cbet size looks pretty bad.
If you range bet this flop, which seems to me the most standard line btw, then you should go way smaller, like maximum 1/3 pot, possibly even 1/4 pot.
If you want to construct a polar range, so basically representing AA and AK as value, then you should most probably go way bigger. FWIW, I have no idea how you should construct the bluff part of such a range.
As played, it is a really awkward spot ott, even more so against an unknown.
Yes, you may bet again ~100, hoping to fold out middle pairs, although the downsize would look very suspicious.
The other option is to check and hope that V checks back.
I don't love either of the two tbh.
What's a fair range for villain OTT? maybe KJs+,KQo+,QQ,JJ,TT,KK?,99. I don't think Kx is folding, QQ,TT,KK no, maybe JJ sometimes, and 99,88 fold almost all the time. Just think there's too many hands that continue to make the bluff profitable.
Grunch:
PRE - 3B seems fine, but size is a tad large in this spot, maybe. I could see it if the game was super-splashy, or if we were super-deep.
FLOP - I'd mostly just check range from OOP when HU as the PFR. I see no reason to c-bet here. Let's check and see what V does. If you simply must c-bet, go smaller, like 1/3 pot, not 1/2 pot.
TURN - Yeah, this is why we should 3B smaller pre and not c-bet the flop, or go smaller if we do. We're kind of starved for good options here.
I don't like how we got here. If this was tag-team poker and you tagged me in, I could see checking turn, to fold to a bet, or possibly bluff the river if the turn checks through, though I don't think that line works very often. We could check turn, and give up on brick rivers.
I could also see jamming turn for max fold equity. We could also bet $100 to set up a PSB river jam, and pray we spike a Q, or if it'd be any good, an A.
I dunno which option I like best. I guess check and hope the river is a Q.
Yes, I guess preflop was my bad. ~$80 is the optimal size here preflop, that way I’m not giving the right odds for set mining.
$100 is fine when I’m over $1500 deep.
