1/2: JJ facing flop x/r in 3b pot, 300bb deep
1/2, $600 deep
UTG opens $6, MP calls, Hero 3! $25 BTN with JJ, V cold calls in SB, UTG folds, MP calls
V is an online pro and by far the best player at the table
Flop ($83): 983r
V x, MP x, Hero cbets $35, V x/r to $100, MP folds, Hero ??
I’m just hating life here.. and kind of knew this was coming
8 Replies
A 3! cold call from the SB in theory is a pretty tight range of hands. Something like 77-JJ, suited broadways, some percentage of AKo and AKs that doesn't 4!. And so let's assume that range since you mentioned he's "by far the best player at the table".
On the flop, he should really only have 88-JJ and JTs in his range given his action. I usually don't care for blockers at low limits, but in this particular case, it actually matters as your two Jacks dramatically cuts down on his semi-blufff with a JTs. So 6 combos of sets and 8 combos of TT and JTs (and one combo of JJ for the chop). Given the smallish check raise, I'd call and evaluate turn.
Why is V cold-calling 3B's out of the SB if he's really that good?
Ask yourself why you're hating life with an over-pair when you get x/r'd. Is it because you'd never 3B with 99 or 88 pre?
If V is really that good, he's probably got a VERY wide x/r range on the flop, which includes top 2P+ for value, but also includes a boatload of draws and worse value hands. We double-block JT, but he could have all the combos of T7s and 76s, plus some JT, especially if he's cold-calling pre with JTo, not just JTs.
He's actually pretty capped here. He should be 4B'ing pre with higher PP's, and folding combos like 98s. He's repping pretty thin for value, just 99 and 88. But he probably doesn't think you're 3B'ing 99/88 pre, so you're capped at 1P or worse.
Not suggesting we should 3B the flop, but we can call, and see what he does on the turn. If he bets less than full pot, I'd probably call again. If he checks a brick, I'd probably pot it.
It would be awesome to go runner-runner to make the nut straight, but even if we don't, I don't think I buy his line when he takes this small x/r sizing, and we may just need to set up to catch a punt.
id call and start folding on the turn. flop is not a mandatory bet
Maybe because he knows he can outplay everyone at the table?
6bet, why did you know this was coming? Does he do this often? What is your image? All of this plays in to how I would react to his check/raise.
Maybe because he knows he can outplay everyone at the table
Why did you know this was coming Does he do this often What is your image All of this plays in to how I would react to his check/raise.
The cold call from the SB casts doubt on his ability to out-play everyone.
If we think that's what he thinks, all the more reason to continue here.
The cold call from the SB casts doubt on his ability to out-play everyone.
If we think that's what he thinks, all the more reason to continue here.
In that case, I raise, but I'm still not sure that's the case.
OP: what do you think your table image is here? You are on BTN and could be perceived as raising wide here in position.
yeah idk. if utg is way under 4 betting either bc live read or nit i think it can be ok to call here pre from an ev standpoint. is prob not great and losing but not by an astronomical amount. people likely going to donate that back post in bloated pot (also player tendencies may end up making it quite a bit less than that in actuality). i mean u got guys ranging him on jto and wanting to 3b / gii otf w what i assume is entire continuing range. annoying i cant find a sim that has it as an option to compare the ev though.
it feels to me like you want to approach calling down linearly both so you have some way to differentiate which overpairs you fold so you dont just put in 300bb with your entire range when the entire table knows you have an overpair, in case he does something tricky pre with a good hand or does something post depolar, and because your lowest overpairs (tt / jj which who knows how often you 3b) block his most likely semi bluffs in some capacity and weight him more towards value
worrying about what he thinks of you imo is just a cop out for not knowing how to approach the hand and hoping op tells you very binary "he thinks im a nit" or "he thinks im a maniac" so u dont have to actually come up w a strategy
still suspect this is not a range bet situation otf given the 2 ranges you're actually facing from pre and this would be a hand id check back a long with some ace highs and a smattering of other random stuff
his sizing isnt particularly threatening but he doesn't really need to threaten given spr / streets left
rejoice. 150 bb nl 500 general sizing gto 3b sizing has the call option for sb when utg opens 2.5 mp calls 2.5 and btn 3bs to 10bb. sb ev of flatting with medium pairs in particular is very close to neutral even at equilibrium. albeit the random suited stuff losing substantially. the 3b a bit bigger in this hand but i think if utg isn't going to 4b enough and people are going to play bad in one way or another can very easily actually be ok in practice w some hands (here it probably is)
