4-bet jam preflop against a bunch of nits with JTs?

If you think you can generate ample folds, then your hand doesn't matter pre. BB flatting 3b is a little concerning.

I think I just flat this getting 3:1 and hope for a playable flop.

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This seems like an easy fold. Also, JTs is a pretty meh opener from MP, and the solver dumps it once the raise size hits x4 at 150bb.

The fact that the BTN may be targeting you means you should be tightening-up your raising range and/or lowering your raise size.

Why? Not sure JTs is the hand I'm going to war with 4 ways here, unless you know all 3 have a good fold button..

That said, not loving any of our options here. I think I might make a tight fold.

What the solver says about preflop is pretty misleading applied to a loose live low to mid stakes game. JTs is obviously an open.

Your hand does matter. If you are going allin, it can't be a pure bluff. JTs or like Axs has more equity if called than most hands.

If it gets through enough, the play is profitable. You are sort of representing AK, not AA/KK. Live players like to see a flop, so kind of weird to pick up chips this way.

If you are going to go crazy like this, I guess it is a call to the 3! rather than a fold.

Since this hand has good playability, you could also 4!/fold smallish and maybe shove the flop with some draws, etc. Maybe cbet/fold some flops you completely miss.

4bet allin... Unless you wouldn't with kk qq JJ. But flat AA as protects range against .... Well, bluffers.

You definitely don't have to go all in, and I'd only 4bet it if I thought I had massive fold equity. I can see calling to see a flop, although that's not ideal, or just folding.

Just a matter of how wide button 3bets here - I'd be curious the math if we assume he 3bets say TT+,AK,AQ,AJs and just calls your jam with QQ+,AK. Think with those ranges he calls about 50% of the time but the other 50% you win a free 220. Think when he calls you'll have like 28% equity or something like that.

BU 3bets very wide. I even saw him 3-bet K4s from the same position. So he's way off the standard line.

That's why I'm thinking. BU is wide, HJ and BB are capped and likely to fold.

If he's 3-betting wide, you need to be 4-betting wide, since mostly calling OOP is going to cause you to leak chips.

However, I don't like 4-betting with J-High.

Given reads, I like it, or 4! smallish/fold. I don't care that it is jack-high. It plays OK against a calling range. TT/AQ might be a little better to shove, but they can be badly dominated by premium calling hands. This sort of play is made in tournaments with shallower stacks.

With two players who you know flat with relatively strong hands like JJ, why would you even consider jamming?

You have $20 in and JTs, just give it up. Against just the V who you think is getting out of line, playing back is reasonable, but JTs wouldn't be my choice. I'd rather have something like 56s so if called, it's pretty clear if I flopped stronger, as opposed to JT that will share many flops against dominating hands.

Against three players, any of whom could have JJ, jamming is pure punt.

3! with K4s from the BU isn't that out of line if playing a polarized preflop strategy. Most solvers prefer K5s, but they will 3! a couple low Kxs. If V is 3! every Kxs, that is too much, but I wouldn't assume he is based on one SD. The most we can draw is that V uses a polarized strategy. This means we can 4! using a smaller size, because he will have some air that has to fold to anything.

That isn't license to start punting. JTs is a sometimes call, mostly fold, against just a 3! without anyone else in the pot. HU against V, we could expand our 4! range, but I'd focus on hands like KQs, KJs, KTs, A5s, AQo as 4! bluffs. With these hands you have closer to 40% equity against a polarized 10% 3! range. As opposed to about 35% with JTs. And I'd only 4! bluff when nobody else is involved.

This is a good spot to 4bet light but I would rather do it with a hand with better equity like AX or a mid pocket pair. AX has the blocker property too (as in, you are less likely to get called when you hold an Ace), which matters a bit here. You are in awful shape with JTs when you get called.

JTs has better equity if called than Axo and about the same as Axs. Since JTs has good playability, I like 4!/fold a little better with this hand. You can make it smallish, as you might with AA/KK.

bad hand, good spot im ok with it i think

prob has to get thru idk 55-60% of the time? likely does even if btn is reasonable. 4b smaller / call might be better just so you you're less likely to get called off by pairs from bb.

JTs has better equity against the range that calls than AJo? I don’t think that’s true, I was looking at the equities earlier.

JTs may have better equity than A8o but Hero in this hand RFI’d from MP so he shouldn’t have worse than ATo here.

I also think A5s has several percentage points higher than JTs, which makes a real difference in a big pot like this.

i mean. what % of the 10% 3betting range do u think is calling off vs 4b jam? i struggle to see much beyond 2.6% - QQ+, AK for 150ish bb. we have 29% vs that range, i dont think it really matters what our equity vs his actual 3betting range is, as even if we call the pot would be multiway. i think we break even if our jam gets through ~58% of the time. just struggle to see this not being +ev. is obviously better w other hands but i think its fine

Ok, I'm wrong on this. Not sure what I thought I looked at earlier. JTs does have better equity than AJo. A5s clearly the best of the three though.

And yeah, I was specifically talking about our equity against the range that calls off facing a big 4bet jam. I was using JJ+ AK. Some opponents probably fold JJ in this spot as the BTN, but I think some might call off with TT. Easy for a Villain to put us on AK when we take this line.

Not a fan of 4x opens but most people do it so what ever.

when 4b bluffing you ideally want to have an ace in your hand.

Solver doesn't like calling this with a player behind, but if you know he never 4b's or you think he's gonna fold, the solver calls 100% of the time in a heads up situation. JTs doesn't play as well multi-way???

If there is an aggro player at your table, you exploit them by opening smaller. A 4x open isn't a great strategy when someone is constantly 3b you. If you choose to 4b do it with a hand like a weak suited ace, or AQ+ for value.

We are jamming into three ranges, not just one. Are we getting through 50% of the time against a call, a 3! and a cold call? Especially from opponents who have a history of flatting relatively strong hands that more aggressive players would 3 or 4 bet. All three Vs could have JJ. In your experience, does a passive player cold call a 3! to turn around and fold to a 4! frequently?

If 3! V is calling with 2.6%, and has a roughly 10% 3! range, then 26% of the time he calls. What does V2 who cold called a 3! have? We know he is "passive" and we saw him cold call a 3! with JJ. So if JJ is flatting, he could certainly flat AK, AQ, TT, maybe even QQ/KK. He was BB, and a lot of fish like to see a flop to make sure there is no ace. But he isn't folding to a jam. So he might be calling about 2.6% too. But his cold calling range probably is smaller than 10%. I would guess something like 77+, ATs+, AQo+ maybe KQ, minus AA. Thats about 6.5%. So V2 could be calling a jam about 40% of the time because we can't rely on him to 4! even KK, but even most fish at this level will call off a jam with QQ and maybe JJ sometimes.

So 26% of the time we are called by V1, about 40% of the time by V2, and V3 who just called us might sometimes have called with a monster too because V3 is passive and passive players don't always 3! strong hands. If those assumptions are in the ballpark, we are called by at least one V 56% of the time.

If we could count on V2 or V3 to 3! or 4! their premiums, the math to jam is slightly more favorable, but our read is they play strong hands passively. I fail to see how jamming is anything other than punt. Its really hard to push three players off of hands they like.

i think its unlikely mp has a hand to stack off with more than ~3% of the time, and i think bb maybe 15%? i think the more willing bb is to go with his hand the more likely he's going to be to cold 4bet it.

your math for bb's range / frequencies looks off to me in multiple ways.

i don't think the read on either player is they play their strong hands passively (the one is labelled sf that 3bs his good hands and flats his bad hands, the other one is labelled passive which doesn't mean he traps) and it feels like you're just being intentionally difficult with assumptions. but not really looking to go back and forth on this one

TT+ is about 2% of hands. Those are the only ones likely to call that badly dominate yours. Getting allin with dead money against AK/AQ/99/88 is not that bad. This action with a loose 3-bettor does not make their ranges that much stronger. It should be a profitable gamble, with some big variance if called.

It is true that JTs is on the lower end of what you are raising with in terms of allin equity, but there is not that much difference, unless you had a premium hand like AQs.

BB's range is condensed because he cold-called a 3!. Do we believe he is cold-calling a 3! with a wide range? Most people don't. Our read is "Passive reg, has cold-called a 3-bet before with JJ a few days ago." For all we know, JJ is the absolute bottom of his cold-call range.

So even though we might say BB would only call a 4! with say 2.6% of all hands (JJ-KK + AK), BB doesn't have all hands in his range. He has something a lot less. So the odds of BB calling a 4! is not 2.6%, it is 2.6%/Y where Y is the range V is cold-calling a 3! with. I proposed what I think is a reasonable cold-calling estimate of 6.5% of all hands. So V calls 2.6%/6.5% = 40% of the time.

Is V cold-calling wider than 77+, ATs+, AQo+ maybe KQ, minus AA? I mean maybe, but I think that range is a reasonable guess based on the info presented. Out of that range, JJ-KK + AK is 40% of it. You can adjust the ranges to whatever you believe is a good estimate, but yes - BBs willingness to cold-call a 3! greatly increases the likelihood that BB has a hand that can call a shove.

To make our shove profitable, I think you either need to assume that BB is cold-calling super wide, or that BB is only calling super tight - like maybe only KK and AK. 1.7%/6.5% = 26%. Maybe we are in break-even territory. But if BB is that nitty to fold QQ and JJ to a shove, is that type of player cold-calling a 3! with ATs? If he is only cold-calling with 77+ and AQ+ the math is 1.7%/4.7% = 36%. Adjust the assumptions that you want, but because BB's range is condensed by his cold call, the portion of his range that are hands that could reasonably call a jam is fairly high.