AKs weird spot, stone bubble , 1.7k live tourney
31 left, top 30 get paid, 3.4k min cash and top 20 move to day 2
we have around 27bb in the Big blind
table is 8 handed, utg+1 (40bbs) rec fish limps (rarely limps a big hand)
btn chip leader (200bbs) limps , he plays kinda weird but rarely limps strong especially with a limper behind
Sb (30 bbs) good player limps
I have AKs , raise, check or jam??
4 Replies
My first thought is I like the jam. But its probably ICM bad. Also the BTN will call with pairs like 55-99 most of the time since we are like 14% of his stack.
If we raise I would make it 6 bb's which puts us in a bad spot OOP with callers. I would check the flop if we miss and let it go. If we have a flush draw it also gets tricky. Maybe I would c/r all in. And again that's probably ICM wrong.
If we check it back pre flop I don't hate it because we are suited (and play well multi handed) but we can be had if we hit an A or K and somebody hits a small set or two pair.
Tough spot.
I think in real life I jam because I don't care that much about min-cashing. If we get called by a PP then so be it. A flip. Which if we win we can probably go deeper than if we win a small pot or lose only a little.
I like jam, I don't think UTG1 and SB have any calls unless UTG1 has exactly AA. I think BU would raise all his premiums to put the ICM pressure on you and the other V's. As other commenter stated, only scenarios where you lose is if UTG1 limped AA or if BU says **** it and calls off light. The good thing is I think you are never dominated in that scenario and are always at least flipping with a low pair. Unless there's like a sub 5 bb stack or the min cash is crucial to you, jam and live with the result.
I think there's a real chance btn will call too much to make a shove profitable from an icm perspective. Stacks this big are often the result of a loose players luck. And our hand just have a small advantage against hands like suited one gappers as QTs. So while it sucks checking behind might be the best play.
Please also note that the number of players advancing to day 2 is totally irrelevant to our decision.
