Sizing question OTT & did we wreck ourselves?
I think pre flop is okay. Villain (CO) opens massive to $.35. I like my 3b sizing - argument could be made to go larger. However, villain started hand w 74 bb's effective so thought that if we went too large ($1.15-$1.20ish) then villain would jam remaining stack & now we're playing a bloated pot either racing or crushed if villain has higher pocket pair.
Flop : Villain chks. I like using a larger size on this flop texture. We should have best hand majority of the time as well as our hand can use protection cause there are a lot of bad turn cards.
Turn : Turn is basically a brick. Here is where I think I may have made a mistake. Villain chks & we bet half pot. In retrospect, I think I prefer jamming this turn over half pot. $4.15 in pot & villain has $5.42 - a bit over 1:1 SPR. We should be ahead here most of the time when villain just flats our flop bet. Idk if the sizing we used is horrible per se, just think that jamming is more optimal in this specific spot. Any feedback/ response to our sizing OTT would be greatly appreciated.
River : Flush comes in on the river. Pot is $8.59 & villain lead jams $3.20. In the moment, I actually leaned towards folding. In my brief experience thus far in the challenge, these lines are usually nvr bluffs & always value. However, the more I thought about it I convinced myself that villain would be getting the money in w his flush draws on either flop/ turn. If villain does not have flush it is hard to find a hand that he beats us w on this runout - he cant have Jxss as the river is Js. If he has 22/33 I would assume the money would get all in before the river. Despite knowing that these lines are almost nvr bluffs I convinced myself to call. Villain has flush & we lose.
Is my line of thinking in this hand reasonable? More importantly - was my sizing OTT awful when considering villain's SPR? On river, I think it should be a sigh fold. Just seems like these lines are nvr bluffs.
2 Replies
I don't think it's awful, but yes turn jam is probably more optimal vs shorty
River, meh. At this price we're supposed to mostly lose but probably not a disaster fold either
Its hard to win when he donks riv there.. Hes a fishy player, they dont do that without the goods