Dbbp 3 pair and up and down
5 5 game , bomb pot for 25 .
7 players
Flop (175 )
8 t 3 rainbow
J 5 7 rainbow
We have 6 t 8 3 rainbow , in mp.
Checks to us , are we checking here or playing it fast ?
Our stack is around 1500
17 Replies
Check, turns are gonna be hard to play and we are likely to get several callers. Getting raised sucks too.
If we keep the pot small and hit gin on either board we can start piling in a great spot.
I would only bet this if checked to me on the button to clean up equity.
Check in your position and play turns.
Betting somewhere between half pot and full pot as played.
Against 7 players, you arent likely to clear out those maniacs with three overs, making your hand vulnerable. Our hands also want to evaluate after seeing what developes. Pot control and just check.
Clear check for me - hand is not strong enough, but can be very good on some turns.
I check for reasons mentioned. I will call a bet, though.
There is a better case for check or bet small from EP.
But if Hero is 4 of 7 (vs 8 or 9 players), I think check is a large error.
OK mixed opinions i see .
I bet 150 , got called from the button ( fish with 600 in he's stack )
Turn 1 - j
Turn 2 - 5
I check , button goes all in .
Hand is done
Not sure if reading the boards right. You are getting molested by a three card hand (J97) and you think checking is a large error?
Hero still has 2 of the top 4 blockers (jt98), and 2 other useful cards/blockers. Villains may not even have a pair of j, let alone useful sidecard.
Hero running into better j9xx combos isnt an equity disaster either I don't think as Hero still has outs on that board and counterfeit protection. Hero can eval turn. Bet/fold against a sound range is also ok.
I will run some sims on this spot later (not for a few days) but I imagine Hero is a net equity favorite vs 6 random hands across these 2 boards. Lack of flush redraw isnt ideal, but this hand can still often triple barrel.
In practice when Hero checks he is forced to fold too often on turn and is forfeiting too much equity. Even a small bet from later position (like $25) would be an improvement over check imo.
Its ok to have hands that bet flop and check turn at high frequency. Initiative has value.
Yes, maybe they just don't have it!
Hero running into better j9xx combos isnt an equity disaster either I don't think as Hero still has outs on that board and counterfeit protection. Hero can eval turn. Bet/fold against a sound range is also ok.
I do realize you are bet-folding, I just don't understand why. Hand can improve on turns, no need to bloat the pot.
No it doesn't. You can't just monkeybet mediocre hands 7-ways for initiative. At least the sizing needs to be tiny.
I think you are undervaluing the hand strength on the flop and overvaluing the potential for good turn cards / freerolls. Checking actually sets up Hero for a lot of reverse freerolls.
This isn't even a pure bet-fold necessarily, but its ok to bet fold vs opponents whose raise range is something like 77(9), j97+. Hero can be ahead or flipping vs various jjxx.
The value of iniative is a basic poker concept.
Two other points in favor of betting are that both good/strong and medium jxxx hands will often call to keep flop multiway. Another is that having the t and 6 blocker let Hero rep a lot of additional straights even when we don't hit.
I think you are undervaluing the hand strength on the flop and overvaluing the potential for good turn cards / freerolls. Checking actually sets up Hero for a lot of reverse freerolls.
No it doesn't. You can see if the turn favors you. Don't freeroll yourself like an idiot.
This isn't even a pure bet-fold necessarily, but its ok to bet fold vs opponents whose raise range is something like 77(9), j97+. Hero can be ahead or flipping vs various jjxx.
i.e. you don't even know what to do when raised, another good argument for checking.
No it isn't. Or then it's some McEvoy/Cloutier-tier stuff. Whether you have initiative or not does affect future streets, I'm not saying that. Generally because callers have a more capped range and that's it.
Two other points in favor of betting are that both good/strong and medium jxxx hands will often call to keep flop multiway. Another is that having the t and 6 blocker let Hero rep a lot of additional straights even when we don't hit.
So now multiway is suddenly a good thing? Thus reducing your argument for betting to only gaining initiative. And then you can rep a straight! monkey pls
Pot
8nut straight outs and three pairs?? Headsup or multiway we should be open to stacking off
Sim confirms Hero has 27.4% equity board Top (more than 2x the equity of other player hands), and 18.5% equity bottom, meaning it is correct to evaluate hand as above average to good, and not mediocre.
Sim also confirms villain will have J97 less than 10% of the time, though J9xx will be out there reasonably often.
But Hero's hand is pretty much a flip vs j9xx across two boards more generally, and I still think there are a lot of good reasons for betting, including the obvious one of folding out weaker hands equity in a 35bb pot.
