Deepstack bluffing with a weak boat
Game is $1/2 live PLO.
UTG opens for $15. UTG is a weak/passive player who overvalues bad hands. Has lost $2k already, just rebought for $500.
2 callers.
Hero calls in CO with AdKd3h4s. I’ve been playing for a few hours and shown a handful of bluffs. I have $4k.
Villain on BTN calls. He’s a strong/thinking player who is capable of making big folds/understands PLO well. He covers the table with a bit more than me.
Flop Kh3s7h. It checks to me and I bet $60. BTN and UTG both call. UTG is almost certainly drawing - he pots flop with any set / 2p. BTN range is wider.
Turn 3d. UTG checks. I bet $125 and both call.
River 9h. UTG shoves all in for $300. I’m well ahead of his range here, since he would easily shove with something as weak as a Q high flush. The real concern is BTN, who could be slow playing a better boat—or was just trying to get to showdown with a middling hand. He knows I bluff sometimes and UTG is bad. Ultimately I decide he would have raised a set on the flop and I put in the call.
Unfortunately I get the bad news as BTN raises to $800 behind me. This is (obviously) never a bluff considering UTG is all in, and he never raises worse here. Given blockers/action, his most likely holding is pocket 7s.
I don’t think calling is ever good here, but do we ever consider bluff shoving? We block quads and kings, and he’s definitely capable of finding a fold with sevens here. Even kings might find the fold, as he is definitely trying to lock up his win at this point. I do think this is consistent with how I’d play quads, including the turn bet sizing and river flat call.
17 Replies
Instead of *everyone reading this* having to do the maths to work out pot sizes, entice people to comment on your thread by doing this work already.
78
258
633
First thing to note is that 77 turns up in people's ranges far less frequently than KK. Second is that he's very unlikely to raise 7s full on the river. So you're targeting essentially kings full. Some good villains will fold that given this action, but there's now a sidepot to fight over and he may see you as making a play with the exact sort of play you're making, decide you wouldn't play quads like this on the turn, or just not be in the mood to fold top boat.
To make this play you need to know your customer well enough that you probably wouldn't be making this thread. Just fold and dream about how balla you'd feel if you made the play and it won. Ask him straight up afterwards whether he'd consider folding top boat if you went allin, and believe him.
Oh, if he does turn up here with 77, with or without a K blocker, that is an awful overvaluation of his hand.
Im not even sure 77 should be jamming here, as KK is very easily in your range.
Which leads me to believe he is doing this with only KK or some kinda blocker K9 bluff if he’s good. Maybe even some kind of K987ds bluff.
Im not folding though the price is too good and you block KK and quad 3s. He may just think you have the nut flush as played as well. Never jamming I’d rather have the K987 to do it with while unblocking the flush leaning more towards you having it.
He is really only repping KK but why wouldn’t he jam the turn multi-way? I flick in the call.
Raise pre.
The idea of turning hand into a bluff on river is interesting, but seems optimistic. Villain needs 77 exactly and even then it might not work. Villain may have a k or 3 blocker with 77 to justify a raise. I guess Hero might also fold chops.
Also given the sizing villain may have misread Hero hand and going for thin value, etc. Call is hard to pass up.
Going back to OP description as strong, thinking player I like turning hand into bluff even less.
Fold pre, even against a drooler and it's not very close for me.
I think river bluff can be good, if you assume he has very rarely KK (I don't think he is ever folding that even if your line screams quads) and he is capable of folding 77. I don't like calling.
I'm surprised to hear both "raise pre" and "fold pre." IMO playing suited aces multiway is a huge profit center against a player pool that can't fold weaker flushes or sets. Raising just inflates the pot that I might miss and chases away some fish. Folding is fine, I guess, but far too nitty for me. This table doesn't squeeze much.
He may just think you have the nut flush as played as well.
He is really only repping KK but why wouldn't he jam the turn multi-way I flick in the call.
Also given the sizing villain may have misread Hero hand and going for thin value, etc. Call is hard to pass up.
I'm surprised anyone is advocating a call here. It would be *very* weird for him to have a hand that can beat UTG, but is weak enough to need to bluff me out of the pot.
He's definitely not the type to overvalue a flush here. The absolute weakest hand he has is K3 and I doubt that raises. Calling here is donating $500.
First thing to note is that 77 turns up in people's ranges far less frequently than KK. Second is that he's very unlikely to raise 7s full on the river. So you're targeting essentially kings full. Some good villains will fold that given this action, but there's now a sidepot to fight over and he may see you as making a play with the exact sort of play you're making, decide you
KK is obviously more frequent in preflop ranges, but I think my K blocker easily counteracts that for there to be more 7s in his range.
I'm surprised to hear both "raise pre" and "fold pre." IMO playing suited aces multiway is a huge profit center against a player pool that can't fold weaker flushes or sets. Raising just inflates the pot that I might miss and chases away some fish. Folding is fine, I guess, but far too nitty for me. This table doesn't squeeze much.
But it's one of the worst possible suited aces. You definitely don't want the Kd, it should be on someone else's hand. You do realize how bad cards 3 and 4 are? Yeah you can make a wheel and it's not the nuts. AK makes one straight. Maybe, maybe if you never get 3bet and have a massive advantage over the table you can make a small profit by calling.
3bet seems bad, but again if you have a massive edge and they play very poorly HU OOP, you can probably 3bet ~25% profitably.
But it's one of the worst possible suited aces. You definitely don't want the Kd, it should be on someone else's hand. You do realize how bad cards 3 and 4 are? Yeah you can make a wheel and it's not the nuts. AK makes one straight. Maybe, maybe if you never get 3bet and have a massive advantage over the table you can make a small profit by calling.3bet seems bad, but again if
Obviously it's not the best suited ace, but I wouldn't put it at the worst. Wheel + nut flush draw is enough potential for me in late position. Kd is the biggest weakness.
So what are worse? Especially if Kd is the biggest weakness.
Anything else where the other two cards are below T. Ex. AdKd44, AdKd59, AdKd56, etc.
I don't think AK43 is better than any of those, especially against wide ranges. Sure, you can flop 25x with two diamonds but that's about it.
KK is obviously more frequent in preflop ranges, but I think my K blocker easily counteracts that for there to be more 7s in his range.
I don't think it does but obviously you saw a showdown and obviously he had 7s full here. It's easy to overstate the effect of blockers and a river raise with 7s full targeting your exact hand given this action is a bad play. 777 also raises flop or turn more frequently than KKK does.
I like limping these hands along that have nut potential in games where no one 3bets anything but AA and absolute premiums.
Live we want to have a limping range with weak but nutted hands that do well multi-way. This hand is perfectly fine and should be in a limping range.
Hands you don’t want to limp that are nutted are the super disconnected. Hands like A973 and AJ84 with a nut suit are still a fold.
AK43 is connected enough on both ends to go ahead and limp. Obviously we prefer to not also have the K of suit but it’s ok.
As far as calling, he can still have some nonsense like 93 and 73 and a nut flush. When our hand still beats value, I like just calling, especially when the price is very cheap as is here. If he potted we have a decision but as played we still beat live low stake idiot value.
We can exploitatively fold if we think he’s not capable, but it’s really tough with both a K and a 3 to run into a hand that beats us and you called him a thinking player. Why would he raise 77 or 99 here? HES only repping KK given your hand.
I guess the point is, if he’s good, only KK/33 and KK blockers can raise here for value and you heavily block that. HES repping nothing else. You lose to only one combo and should call if you can find 1 bluff given your blocker properties and the raise size.
If he’s value betting 77, 99, or lower boats HES either putting you on the NF or he doesn’t understand the spot and HES not as good as you think he is, as you should just call with KK here to lure him into a call as well or a spaz.
Krilleater
Its normal to iso-raise a weak player who 'over-values' bad hands with a large number of suited axxx hands - ak blocks aa and kk, so a 3! can force a lot of folds and our hand plays better HU than multiway, especially with the 34xx; our hand still has plenty of equity multiway but the playability is better when Hero is uncapped
Flatting suited ace with more board coverage is a lot more attractive for multiway since this hand can only make broadway, wheel and sometimes wheel when 6-hi straight is also present.
In this hand it might have folded out BTN, who has put you in difficult spot on river
I'm coming around to the idea of a 3! preflop. It would have folded out BTN, though HU is unlikely - in this game i'd expect at least 1 of the original callers to come along. This is still a weaker part of my game.
As far as calling, he can still have some nonsense like 93 and 73 and a nut flush. When our hand still beats value, I like just calling, especially when the price is very cheap as is here. If he potted we have a decision but as played we still beat live low stake idiot value.We can exploitatively fold if we think he's not capable, but it's really tough with both a K and a 3 to
This logic doesn't make much sense - you're saying he can still have a nut flush but not 77? Unlikely.
Anyways, I ended up thinking for a bit before folding. He (obviously) tabled sevens but remarked how worried he was as I thought / admitted the raise was a bit of a spaz play. Based on this, I definitely think I could have gotten him to fold if I had shoved.
I'm coming around to the idea of a 3! preflop. It would have folded out BTN, though HU is unlikely - in this game i'd expect at least 1 of the original callers to come along. This is still a weaker part of my game.
The first part is assuming he’s a live low stakes idiot. They will raise here sometimes with 73 and 93 as well as sometimes with a NF. When we still beat idiot value, we can flick in a call considering how cheap it is in relation to pot size. Yes he will also raise 77 and 99, but that’s 2 hands as opposed to the 10 or so others if we account for all available boats and nut flushes. We eliminate bluffs as most aren’t capable of bluffing in this spot.
The second part is assuming you are correct in that he is a good capable player who knows what he is doing. In that aspect, he should not be raising 77 or 99 as played, as it’s a punt for the reasons mentioned by yourself. Therefore, he is repping only KK and quads, plus bluffs, as good thinking capable players will have bluffs. You heavily block all value, which leans him towards bluffs, so we call.
It just so happened he was in between. A capable player who made an idiot play.
We are now in no man’s land lol.
The first part is assuming he's a live low stakes idiot. They will raise here sometimes with 73 and 93 as well as sometimes with a NF. When we still beat idiot value, we can flick in a call considering how cheap it is in relation to pot size. Yes he will also raise 77 and 99, but that's 2 hands as opposed to the 10 or so others if we account for all available boats and nut flus
The two are not necessarily inconsistent. BTN's river raise could very well be for thinnish value against this player pool, if most of them play like UTG and not like Hero. Particularly if BTN perceives Hero as capped, since the great majority of players he regularly faces will be capped in this spot.
People who win significant money in these kind of games but never play higher tend to develop lots of habits which are both very exploitive and very exploitable.
The first part is assuming he's a live low stakes idiot. They will raise here sometimes with 73 and 93 as well as sometimes with a NF. When we still beat idiot value, we can flick in a call considering how cheap it is in relation to pot size. Yes he will also raise 77 and 99, but that's 2 hands as opposed to the 10 or so others if we account for all available boats and nut flus
Thanks for clarifying - yeah that makes sense. I'd definitely not put him in the idiot pool of raising 73.
Definitely seems like he made the raise mostly out of habit, since most of our player pool will call here with any boat.
