$300 Live - Hero call?
This might be a very straightforward fold but I thought about it a lot in game and wonder if anyone can help me range my opponent here.
$300 live tournament, 2 day with $100k guaranteed. Playing at a new room which is full of fish, way below the level of where I usually play (Hard Rock Hollywood).
I've run up to about 1.5 starting stacks. Probably like 60-80 BBs. I open 99 EP, BU (young reg) calls, SB and BB also call. Flop 732r. I cbet about 60% and only the young guy calls. Turn is a Tx and I check. He bets tiny, like 10% pot, and I call. River 6x (no flush gets there). I check and he shoves about 1.5x pot. I cover and still have about half a starting stack if I lose.
My intuition was screaming call. I put him on a combination of bluffs (A4s, A5s) and value (a tiny bit of 66 and some 45s, though he may not call 45s pre). I've played with this guy before and haven't seen him run a crazy bluff like this. But it just felt like a bluff on some instinctive level. The turn bet really threw me off too. The argument for folding is a strong one: we have a lot of chips and a skill edge on the field, so why waste it on an iffy spot against another good player?
What would you all have done?
7 Replies
Your OP is hard to follow with the minimal bet sizing information but I think the gist of it is that you arrive on the river with a bluff catcher on the river where villain over shoves the pot: he shoves 50k into a 20k pot, correct?
I don’t think you can rule out 89 or 45 with villain potential turning a flush draw as viable hands from bu. Although given your blockers and call on bigger flop (with only two overs, no draw), I would not expect 89 to stick around, except to bluff you on a later street. It does sound like turn card put out a flush draw.
I agree that the turn bet is confusing and a strange size. I probably fold as you did but I would tank a bit to see if you can pick up a tell. Without a better read, if a good player confuses me I tend to rather fold then call and find out he ran out a crazy runner runner or turned the world and rivered a hidden nut hand.
I think you have to go with your intuition.
My gut feeling is that Villain has a set which he may have flopped. The 10% pot bet sizing on the turn is whacky. I see small bets like that as almost always value wanting a hand like AK/AQ to call. But it is also a blocking size bet (well smaller really) which could be a hand like 7x that wants to see if you are going to c/r.
The sizing of the river jam is very polarizing so either Villain has a monster or a bluff. Your past with him indicates it is unlikely a bluff. But your intuition was screaming call. I would fold but I think you made the correct decision. Even if it turned out to be wrong.
The other thing I will mention is that I will typically c-bet a 732r flop vs 3 opponents at about 25% pot or pretty much what I bet pre-flop. When I do bet 60% pot it is a strong indication that I have an over pair. Which is fine because I want folds (especially vs two overcards). But I have been in this spot a few times where the flop caller had a set and lured me into an all in situation. It is especially difficult because Villain is in position OTB.
Another thing is that A5s/A4s will not be calling a 60% flop bet much (or at least all the time). Though 54s will. And 54s got there. So I think there aren't very many draws that didn't get there. Given that Villain doesn't do crazy things a lot (like call a large flop bet with nothing and then bluff big with nothing) I think that is why I would fold.
Your OP is hard to follow with the minimal bet sizing information but I think the gist of it is that you arrive on the river with a bluff catcher on the river where villain over shoves the pot: he shoves 50k into a 20k pot, correct?I don’t think you can rule out 89 or 45 with villain potential turning a flush draw as viable hands from bu. Although given your blockers and call
The problem is I've forgotten the exact amounts, but I think I opened about 2.5x, button (villain) calls, SB calls, BB calls. I cbet 60%, call fold fold. On the turn, which did not bring in any flush draw, I checked and he bet 10% of the pot. By the river there was 20k in there and he went in for around 32k. So I need to be right ~45% of the time. I did tank but couldn't get anything off him.
The problem is I've forgotten the exact amounts, but I think I opened about 2.5x, button (villain) calls, SB calls, BB calls. I cbet 60%, call fold fold. On the turn, which did not bring in any flush draw, I checked and he bet 10% of the pot. By the river there was 20k in there and he went in for around 32k. So I need to be right ~45% of the time. I did tank but couldn't get an
I just wanted to make sure I understood the facts. You are facing a 1.5x post shove on river for 2/3 of your stack with a hand that has some value but doesn’t beat top pair on the board against a player you deem as good.
After reading Rick’s response, I have seen some good player play sets of 2s or 3s in this fashion and those hands calling the 60% pot bet on flop makes more sense than runner runner hands. I still fold inthis spot.
There are some content creators teaching a line like the villain took as an exploitative bluff. The idea is you bet small on the turn to get your opponent to reveal the strength of their hand. The assumption is that stronger hands will respond to the small bet by raising. If you just call then they can feel confident to bomb the river as a bluff and get you to fold almost always. I think there's a good chance that's what happened.
The other time I see people take lines like this is when they're pretty much betting the strength of their hand. In that case 45 would make a lot of sense for value. They could make a small stab with a draw on the turn then pile the money in when they get there on the river.
When you think about it you probably would raise the 10% turn bet a lot if you were really strong. So it doesn't make a lot of sense from villain's perspective for a strong hand to overbet all in on the river, unless they were just like level one thinking, I rivered a straight so I'm all in. Otherwise I would think they would try to bet smaller to milk you.
I also have a hard time imagining a set betting 10% on the turn. I would think a hand that strong would usually bet bigger, at least 1/3 pot or more.
Anyway I'm leaning towards calling, but this is the type of spot where I put a lot of emphasis on my reads and history with the specific villain. Given that your intuition was to call I would trust your instincts.
I can’t call fast enough
