1/2 facing flop x/r jam w/99
I think I levelled myself on the flop here. Keen to get some thoughts on whether or not my decision should have taken as long as it did.
Playing £1/£2 with £500 max buy in. Hero starts hand with c. £500. effective.
Table is a mix of loose passives and tight passives. The only players getting out of line are not in this hand.
Hero - I have been card dead since sitting down 1.5 hours ago and all pots I have won have been on flop/turn. have not shown down and have a tight image.
V1has not really got too much out of line and I would not describe him as aggressive. Very much a fit/fold type character. Starts hand with c. £350.
V2 has c. 75 big blinds to start the hand, have not seen him show down a hand.
8 handed, no straddle.
V1 opens to £7 from MP. V2 calls in CO, hero 3! on button with 99 to £30. V1 and V2 both call.
Flop J73ccx. I do not have the 9c.
V1 and V2 both check. I bet £65 into a pot of £93.
I am trying to take advantage of my tight image here and I feel like this is a standard C-bet spot on this flop and given the pre-flop action. I can have over pairs and strong Jx and I don't think the flop hits their calling range too hard. Happy with the sizing but will take feedback. Checking after my pre-flop action feels weak and I feel like there are more turn cards that can devalue my hand than help me.
V1 quickly shoves for £304 total. V2 snap folds and I go into the tank.
I think there are a lot of club draws that can play like this (AK/AQ/ATcc, KQcc) and the hand very much felt like one of these overpair + FD combo moves due to the size and speed of the CRAI from V1.
Also aware that I now lose to any Jx, 77 which maybe gets to the flop, but I felt there were more overcards + FDs in V1 range here.
I thought about this for a very long time before making the decision. Spoiler within.
Thoughts?
Spoiler
I tank folded. When I left the table around 45 mins later V1 said he had QQ.
9 Replies
Grunch (haven't opened the spoiler yet):
PRE - I'd raise bigger, to 35 or 40, and probably just 40. Maybe even a tad more if I suspect V2 may be nearing "eff it, I'm all in" territory.
FLOP - I'd either check-back or c-bet smaller, less than 1/3 pot, maybe only 25, but 30 at the absolute most.
We're unlikely to fold out better 1P hands or flush draws. Most of the hands we're folding out are worse than ours. When we bet 2/3 pot, we're narrowing our opponents' ranges significantly, weighting them more towards value hands which are stronger than ours, and draws to the nuts.
When holding 99 on J73, what's the worst 1P combo our opponents are likely to continue with, facing a bet of 1/3 pot or more, on a two-tone board? Maybe 88 or some 7x combo? There just aren't that many hands we can target for value, so betting here is more or less bluffing.
As played, when V shoves for 304, it seems like a pretty standard fold. We don't beat anything he'd shove for value, and all his bluffs are likely to have significant equity vs our hand. In fact, our 99 blocks some combos like T9 or 98 that might take this line, albeit, not T9cc or 98cc, since we don't have the 9c.
Regardless, I don't think he's doing this with T9 or 98 often enough to counter-balance all the sets, over-pairs, and TPTK combos he could have. Even if he's jamming two overs + a flush draw - he's got 15 outs, plus he can go runner-runner to make a straight. So we're either WAY behind his value, or flipping at best with his better bluffs.
Now off to read the spoiler...
Just read the spoiler. Sounds about right, although if I were V, I'd have 4B pre, rather than invite V2 to come along and see a flop.
didnt read spoiler but while this board is dry, J high boards with middling cards (within 5 card straight of the J) and an apparent brick tend to connect with parts of limp/call ranges where youre likely for them to float. you also block potential bluff candidates for villains T9, 98, Q9, K9.
I think check back or smaller flop sizing is just much better here considering your gonna betting with high frequency IP after raising.
Check shove from a player who hasnt got out of line or perceived as aggressive is extremely aggressive so I think you need to trust your observational deductions - low limit players arent launching ch/shove with a wide enough range where 99 can be calling off in this spot.
Many thanks, and interesting note re: the smaller C-bet sizing which now makes a lot of sense.
Didn't read the spoiler but I would fold on this spot as well. You are repping a decent hand and V's x/r shove on the flop seems very strong so I'm assuming he has at least a J to beat you here. Your reads on him playing straightforward also decrease the chances of us being ahead here I think.
I would also lean towards checking back on the flop as it's not really a great one to cbet with our hand, especially multiway. I'd be happy to see a cheap showdown with our hand.
I think I levelled myself on the flop here. Keen to get some thoughts on whether or not my decision should have taken as long as it did. Playing £1/£2 with £500 max buy in. Hero starts hand with c. £500. effective. Table is a mix of loose passives and tight passives. The only players getting out of line are not in this hand. Hero - I have been card dead since sitting down 1.5 h
I would personally prefer cold calling this pre, but if you want to 3bet make it a bit larger.
Flop is 100% a check, nobody really knows the theory in multiway pots because its not really solved but what we know so far is you should be VERY tight both when betting and when calling/raising versus action in multiway pots, this is a perfect check back hand, it doesn't get called by worse, the hands that call here versus you have a ton of equity and you have a ton of better hands you can bet as bluffs (IE the hands you named, like two overcards with a BDFD, flush draws, etc.) - keep in mind you should value bet only very strong hands MW and thus you dont need that many bluffs and you should preferrably use hands that have a lot of equity even multiway.
If I cbet the flop and got jammed on I would always fold for the reasons stated above. This gotta be stupid underbluffed, your range is protected by SO MANY Stronger hands you can call with, and even if he is "Bluffing" by jamming a hand that doesnt have any showdown value (like two overs with a FD or just any FD for that matter) he has a ton of equity. I like the fold.
Preflop is fine
Flop bet is good to deny equity to all the overcards, but make it smaller for the reasons docvail stated
The check-jam is close and yes there can be a lot of draws, and yes an instashove might be an indication of a draw, but I'd still err on the side of folding. But it's probably not a snap fold
Thanks again for the replies and input!
Don't add spoilers -- it biases people's feedback.
FWIW, I snap fold to the shove. The rest is fine.