Stay at home Dad taking it to Next Phase on Proof of Concept

Hey Phil, fellow dad here and best of luck in 2025.

I just want to point out you might be playing a bit too tight (10vpip, 7pfr). I'd recommend you widen up those ranges and look at some solved ones for free online (gtowizard has some for free for example).

thanks, that is probably true. I do notice that a tendency to play tighter and take less risks when my bank roll feels limited but as I've been climbing out of the hole I have started to play at more unopened pots with more than just premium hands. and the more regularly i play the more natural it becomes to win those small pots with a bet/3-bet and then a small c-bet or simply give it up when its not a good situation.

Also I forgot to mention another key principle. Just the importance of making laydowns and avoiding losing your entire stack in one hand by making a catastrophic move. That was one of my biggest leaks before, overplaying JJ, QQ, and even KK and AA. You need to remind yourself that AA and KK is just one pair, and often times one pair doesn't cut it against someone making a strong play back at you. I go back and check hand history on my laydowns and opponents usually aren't bluffing, although of course it happens on occasion. I tell myself it is better to be bluffed than to be beat.

Here's my stats from Sept 2024 after 3k hands at the 0.25 game. I tend to be a nit but I'm trending in the right direction I think.

Hey keep up the good work buddy. Yeah 10/7 is still too tight of a range but it's an improvement from where you were which is a good thing. For reference I'm a 13/10 player which is still on the tight side of the range probably.

I was reading Super systems again last night. In particular about how he likes to play connected cards like 98, 87, 76, 65 in position because of their deception value. Also how when JT makes a straight it's always going to be the nut straight but when you make pairs or trip J's or 10's you will more often run into kicker trouble than the lower connected cards since when someone else hits their J or 10 they often have a face card as their other whole card. I need to be careful though. I remember in college the first time I finished reading Super systems I proceeded to bust my whole bankroll playing until sunrise because I was overly aggressive. I also like that D.B writes that position is everything, it's the whole game. This is the first thing I also wrote on my cheat sheet ("position is everything.")

Last 500 hands my VPIP averaged 13.9%. I've been forcing myself to bet against players showing weakness when I'm in position with more hands like A-x suited, KJ, or connected cards like 89 and picking up some smaller pots. Hands I would usually just discard as too weak.

The next thing I am going to focus on is improving how I play AK. Overall I am about even with cumulative AK hands and that definitely suggests I am playing it too timid and getting scared when I get raised back and thinking I will be crushed by AA or KK. But I am seeing repeatedly how people are making 3 bets just as often with AQ, QQ, JJ or worse just as often as AA and KK and I am losing out on these opportunities to clean up in these situations. I'm usually pretty good at figuring out when I'm beat post flop and making laydowns and cutting my losses (that's the positive side of being nitty. The last time I lost a full buy in was 30 sessions ago).

Try playing AK like it's aces preflop you'll be surprised how often it works. If you raise and get 3bet start 4betting it more and you don't need to go very big either, if it goes 3bb, 9bb you can 4bet to 23bb or so and just take it preflop quite often. Also with AK you just have to kind of go with it sometimes. Depends on the situation but if it's BTN-SB-BB then you shouldn't be folding AK for example.

I've been playing longer sessions this month and the increased volume has given me a lot more insight, particularly on 'playing scared' in cash games because I'm too preoccupied with not losing money (whereas my tournaments are going much better - just made 2 final tables + 1 min cash out of 4 MTTs in past 3 nights). I looked back on a couple instances in recent cash games of AK where I was bluffed, in one case by another player with AK, and the other was a true bluff with garbage.

I reluctantly gave up some hands suspecting they were most likely bluffs (ie. I open early with standard 3x bet, get one caller, and then button raises 15x to squeeze me out - in that hand I had AJ and opponent had A2 suited and I felt his overbet was a tell, although folding AJ maybe was still a safe play there). The more I play, the more self aware I've been and asking myself if fear is making my decisions. Just paying attention and also using HUD stats helps as well. If someone is playing tight and comes out with a 3-bet, especially out of position, I can be more cautious. But some players seem to like to just come in with a 3-bet when they see a couple players come in the pot for a bet out of position.

If someone raises more than normal the GTO response is to have a tighter continuing range. So just play it that way. Even if it looks like they are buying it, you better know they are buying it and even then it's a big deviation. But yes just keep playing and trying to improve your game.

April has been a good month. I've been playing nearly everyday since returning from Spring break, grew my bankroll, significantly increased overall volume and length of sessions, and got through some mental barriers. I mentioned couple weeks back how I was reading Super/Systems. It was almost Deja Vu to first time I read it over a decade ago, then proceeded to bust my bankroll online overplaying hands. So I did that again for about 3 days or so, just playing too many drawing hands, in bad positions, making bets and getting raised off of it.

From playing poor in cash games and string of bad luck in MTT's I went from a peak of $640, and down to $520. Then fortunately I got a 5th place MTT finish and was back up to around $600. Also I took some space to really examine what I was doing wrong, and determined 1) that playing premium hands is still the way to go, and stop trying to force situations where you can open up a little, and 2) I was letting fear of losing a big pot guide my decisions in a lot of cases. This 2nd point became abundantly clear after a 3 hour session where I was bluffed on 5 big hands that I later reviewed (AK, AK, AJ, TT, and some other PP I think). I had reluctantly folded in these hands with a strong inclination that I was being bluffed based on how my opponents were playing, but went against my gut and judgement. The only way to build up trust in your gut instinct is to exercise your gut and follow your instincts and see that it made sense.

I thought a lot and did some journaling about fear in poker. Deciding out of fear, and conversely the fear opponents feel. That combined with just more volume, helped me play more clear headed and literally in each big hand ask myself, 'am I making this decision out of fear?' And just trusting the power of observing your opponents to know which ones are playing too many hands or play too aggressively and things like that. I have a few nice big showdowns since then. And then you start getting more comfortable having to make a big play when it seems to make the most sense. Since then I had one more 5th place MTT finish and a few good cash sessions and up to $700 in bankroll. Here are a couple big hands for me:

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Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($25) [VPIP: 9.9% | PFR: 7% | AGG: 43.7% | Flop Agg: 50.3% | Turn Agg: 41.4% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 3.5% | 4Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 13576]
MP1 ($16.94) [VPIP: 21.4% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 20% | Flop Agg: 33.3% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 25% | Hands: 14]
MP2 ($38.94) [VPIP: 60% | PFR: 13.3% | AGG: 22.2% | Flop Agg: 37.5% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 11.1% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 55.6% | Hands: 15]

Dealt to Hero: As Qc (MP2 was a nut calling every preflop bet and also shoved with a flush draw a few hands before)

HERO Raises To $0.75, EP Calls $0.75, MP1 Calls $0.75, MP2 Calls $0.75, HJ Calls $0.75, CO Raises To $2, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Calls $1.25, EP Calls $1.25, MP1 Calls $1.25, MP2 Calls $1.25, HJ Calls $1.25

Flop ($12.35): 5h 2h Qs
HERO Bets $4.50 (Rem. Stack: $18.50), EP Folds, MP1 Raises To $14.94 (allin), MP2 Calls $14.94 (Rem. Stack: $22), HJ Folds, CO Folds, HERO Raises To $23 (allin), MP2 Calls $8.06 (Rem. Stack: $13.94)

Turn ($73.29): 5h 2h Qs Js
River ($73.29): 5h 2h Qs Js 9c

MP1 shows: Ad Qh
MP2 shows: 6h Ah

HERO wins: $43.49
MP1 wins: $27.80

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
HERO ($25) [VPIP: 9.9% | PFR: 7% | AGG: 43.7% | Hands: 13576]
MP ($16.35) [VPIP: 48.1% | PFR: 5.8% | AGG: 20.4% | Flop Agg: 16.7% | Turn Agg: 25% | River Agg: 37.5% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 100% | Fold to 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 52]

Dealt to Hero: Kc As (I was UTG so I decided to limp like I could be setting trap with AA, then I was pot committed to call his all-in)

HERO Calls $0.25, UTG Folds, MP Raises To $1.10, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, HERO Raises To $3.75, MP Raises To $16.35 (allin), HERO Calls $12.60

Flop ($33.05): 9d 4h 9h
Turn ($33.05): 9d 4h 9h 2c
River ($33.05): 9d 4h 9h 2c Kd

MP shows: Qs Qd
HERO wins: $31.40

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NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
EP ($25) [VPIP: 100% | PFR: 50% | AGG: 16.7% | Flop Agg: 100% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Cold Call: 100% | Hands: 2]
HERO ($23.35) [VPIP: 9.9% | PFR: 7% | AGG: 43.7% | Flop Agg: 50.3% | Turn Agg: 41.4% | River Agg: 41.7% | 3Bet: 3.5% | Fold to 3Bet: 72.5% | 4Bet: 9.5% | Hands: 13576]

Dealt to Hero: Kh Ad (right place, right time, typical donk)

UTG Raises To $0.90, EP Calls $0.65, HERO Raises To $2.85, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, SB Folds, BB Folds, UTG Folds, EP Calls $1.95

Flop ($6.95): Qd Ks 8h
EP Bets $22.15 (allin), HERO Calls $20.50 (allin)

Turn ($49.60): Qd Ks 8h 5d
River ($49.60): Qd Ks 8h 5d 6d

EP shows: Qs 4s
HERO wins: $45.95

April was an overall success. I increased my volume and bankroll significantly from last month (even though I was on vacation the fist week of April so it was a shorter month). I was playing really poor in cash games the first week of April and had a bad string of MTTs. But I made some changes to my cash game and turned it around and ended up break even on ring games. Also made 2 final tables in MTTs. So April my bankroll went from $630 down to nearly $500 and now back up to $725. I need to work on getting enough sleep and avoid missing days of poker. Instincts are the sharpest when playing consecutive days and long sessions. Also I am considering jumping up one level of blinds in ring games soon.

RING: 21 sessions / 25 hours / 2311 hands / Won: $2.75 (11bb)
SNGs: 15 played / 9 cashed / Won: $40.50 (44% ROI)
MTTs: 17 played / 7 cashed (2 final tables) / 10.5 hours / Won: $114 (81% ROI)

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Here was one of my favorite hands from last session of April. I was paying attention so I had seen the guy who opened was betting preflop like every hand and I had seen the player who 3-bet make a 3-bet before and then give up on the flop, so I knew he was capable of 3-betting light against an aggressive player. And the short stack who shoved was a lunatic who had few hands before called an all-in on the river with King high. So I was confident 4-betting strong with QQ and the board held up.

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD 2 Poker Tracking Software

NL Holdem 0.25(BB)
BB ($8.01) [VPIP: 70% | PFR: 30% | AGG: 8.3% | Flop Agg: 25% | Turn Agg: 0% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 0% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 10]
UTG ($30.67) [VPIP: 53.8% | PFR: 30.8% | AGG: 23.1% | Flop Agg: 40% | Turn Agg: 33.3% | River Agg: 0% | 3Bet: 33.3% | 4Bet: 0% | Hands: 13]
MP1 ($28.74) [VPIP: 30.8% | PFR: 30.8% | AGG: 33.3% | Hands: 13]
HERO ($24.40) [VPIP: 10% | PFR: 7.1% | AGG: 43.8% | Flop Agg: 50.7% | Turn Agg: 41.2% | River Agg: 41.3% | 3Bet: 3.6% | 4Bet: 9.9% | Hands: 13957]

Dealt to Hero: Qc Qh

UTG Raises To $0.75, EP Folds, MP1 Raises To $2.50, MP2 Folds, HJ Folds, CO Folds, BTN Folds, HERO Raises To $6, BB Raises To $8.01 (allin), UTG Calls $7.26, MP1 Folds, HERO Calls $2.01

Flop ($26.53): 9h 2h 9c
HERO Bets $11 (Rem. Stack: $5.39), UTG Folds

Turn ($37.53): 9h 2h 9c 3d

River ($37.53): 9h 2h 9c 3d 4d

BB shows: Jc 2c

HERO wins: $25.21

And another final table tonight. 4th in the $1k guar. Made $80. bankroll up to $805 now. Starting May off nice.

Thats 4 final tables so far this year in 47 MTTs (47% ITM / 48% ROI). But still no top 3 finishes yet this year.