Is this a fold on the bubble?
I do not know if I am being results oriented or if I made the right call and had bad luck.
$25 rebuy addon on BetMGMPA.
1 player to the money. Final table. Pays 4.
Villian did this a couple of times with 40+bb so I labeled him a trying rec that misunderstands SB jamming and that it doesn't start at 40BB but anyway I figured I had more equity based on the fact this was the 4th time he did it. So I was pretty confident I was ahead or flipping with of a lot of his range. I figured 66+, A8s+, KTs+, ATo+
Given the stack sizes I am second guessing my call though since this was the money bubble. No idea what to believe honestly.
3 Replies
I'm ok with your call given what you state. Had you won that hand you have a great shot at taking first place. The goal is to win tournaments. I'm pretty much never feeling great folding AQo if I think I'm playing some sort of loose rec willing to gamble.
The goal is to make the most money.
Vs. his actual hand you were clearly correct-- and I think even with ICM the edge you have there is going to be correct. It's possible to calculate this stuff with the payout info and an ICM calculator.
There shouldn't really be a 40BB shoving range, though, which makes this a bizarre spot. I don't know how to correctly assign a range to SB here.
Do you think you have a meaningful edge over the field and/or they don't really understand ICM? Those factors would incline me to fold just because I'd be confident I could make money from their mistakes and chip up more safely, rather than put it all on one hand. (I would imagine if he's shoving a hand like that, he's shoving small pairs, too.)
But really, the only answer is to get the exact payouts and run an ICM calculator. That'll at least give you an idea of the edge you need to call here.
The goal is to make the most money.Vs. his actual hand you were clearly correct-- and I think even with ICM the edge you have there is going to be correct. It's possible to calculate this stuff with the payout info and an ICM calculator.There shouldn't really be a 40BB shoving range, though, which makes this a bizarre spot. I don't know how to correctly assign a range to SB her
My thinking is player is a rec that is trying to think like a reg and read about blind shoving on the bubble as the chip leader and doesn’t understand you don’t do it 40bb deep lol.
So it is a very confusing spot. I do feel I had a big skill edge over the remaining players.
Having said that my idea on his range was dead on but I have to account for bad luck when I make the call.
In hindsight I think you are correct and without AA, AKs and KK it’s a fold in that very specific spot. I still lose with everything but AA but I think all factors considered that’s the correct analysis in hindsight.
