55 CO vs Btn

x/r. Represent a draw. Can't give potentially two free cards and only get one bet on the river.

Probably fold pre to the 3bet (also the open raise to 15 seems a tad big, I'd rather make it ~10).

As played, flop is a farily standard c/r .

Seems like a standard x/r spot. Given stack sizes, we can go smallish, like $160 would leave $300 behind in a $400 pot. Makes it easy to gii on the turn, and V might just do the work for us and jam. I'm looking to keep in the janky FD, BDSD and Acx. Make those pot odds look fantastic.

I might fold to the 3bet, but I don't mind the call (fwiw, $15 is perfectly fine to me -- I go $12 at 1/2). What is your image? Have you been raising a lot?

Two ways I can see playing this flop depending on my image:
The obvious check/raise.
Lead this flop small ($30/$35) to look like a blocking bet and hope he raises, then flat and check/raise most turns or just raise him now if you've been aggressive.

Think I'd be x/r'ing to $270, planning to jam the rest in on the turn.

Villain's 3bet limits the # of flush draw combos in their range so clear ch/raise to 4 or even 4.5x - i like the larger sizing because its often misread as bluffy but that could also be due to my image at the table as well in general. But I would minimum c/r to 3.5x this size as opposed to a smaller size with the hope of inducing a shove only because you risk the chance villain flats the ch/raise and shuts down on obvious turns as well as others unknown to you yet they view as not benefiting their hand

Since villain is new to the table its unlikely they've developed a competent profiling of your image as to skewing in a direction of their perception you only ch/raise immediate value vs potential realized equity/value.

It's been a couple of orbits, so both players should have some image, even if it is NIT.

people dont fold overpairs on the flop. id cr enough to where jamming turn is less than pot.

yes absolutely true but I'm saying there's a difference between having an image, and villain's ability to deduce one based on what they've witnessed. perhaps he plays cell phone games the whole time. perhaps he just walked out on his gf and is running that around in his head, perhaps he's hungry etc etc etc

I'm fine with an open limp or a small open preflop.

Setmining OOP HU in a 3bet pot against all but the most terrible is unlikely to be profitable, imo. We'll need pretty much 3 postflop bets to go in to be profitable, need him to have that overpear like always, and that's ignoring times we hit and lose.

I think a donk/donk/donk line, especially on a drawy board, is probably a less scary line for villain to face and more chance of us getting paid off. Course board is drawy so we can rep the draw, plus a check does allow air to lose a cbet. But facing a check/raise and turn bet is just so strong I think we lose a lotta players. Could check/call then donk turn to prevent it from checking thru (although I guess he's more likely to continue betting if draw doesn't complete). But it is just so much harder to get paid off OOP which makes preflop really meh.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I sometimes open limp, but not from CO or BTN. I generally raise small with any hand I decide to play when passed to me in late position. Usually, lose players will call the smallish raise to see a flop, and there isn't much point in picking up the blinds and antes. Limping may be good if you expect to get 3! a lot. Limping or raising small with this hand can be done in ep to try to get a multiway pot, but you are unlikely to get one when it is passed to you in CO.

The call of the 3! is marginal, but OK. You are getting some immediate pot odds as you already have money in. Whether or not you continue when you don't make a set or straight draw, you aren't going to get much profit when you miss. This hand prints like 5-way, but is marginal HU.

Once you check, you have to checkraise and shove the turn. Leading and bet/bet/bet is OK too. Either way represents a draw.

I'd call and xr any turn. Villain chose a large flop sizing, and will keep betting overpairs on most turns. This is a very non-threatening texture; would be more concerned about folding out villain bluffs.

It's a much less dangerous texture than, say, 984. Even so, there's a reasonable checne it goes check-check at least sometimes, so donking flop is fine (as long as either (1) you're not doing it with only sets, or (2) people aren't going to notice and adjust if you do). I'd mostly check-raise on 954, donking a lot more on 984.

Yes preflop is marginal, but the 3bet is less than 3x and there's still a bit of stack depth, so just about OK. It's also CO vs button, so button can be 3betting with all sorts of unsuited Broadway rubbish.

Well, yes, it's much less dangerous, because we didn't flop a set on 984 😉