Did hero play T3s correctly in this hand?
Final two tables of a live €200 buy-in tournament; 270 players and €10k up top; we are in the money.
UTG (20bbs) - an old
You can bluff the river representing an 8 for a straight. If you are going to do that, I would make it less than pot. No point in risking too much. There are some problems. First of all, you may be ahead. It is a wet board and the flush draw and some straight draws missed. Usually a really wet board is not good for bluffing at.
You can bluff the river representing an 8 for a straight. If you are going to do that, I would make it less than pot. No point in risking too much. There are some problems. First of all, you may be ahead. It is a wet board and the flush draw and some straight draws missed. Usually a really wet board is not good for bluffing at.
I estimate this to be villain's range on the river:
As you can see, second pair, top pair and overpairs make up about 44% of his range, and these are the hands that I'm trying to make fold. You're right that I probably don't need to jam to get him to fold second pair, but if I want any chance of him folding top pair or overpairs then I need to go big. I'm meant to be shoving a polarized range (although I'm actually not, with this hand specifically - it would be an attempt to exploitatively overbluff, I believe) and that means I should use a large size. Note that I would not do this against a balanced/decent player, as they are probably going to snap me off with top pair and overpairs almost always after checking back the turn - but this player type I feel will be overfolding. So in that case I need to maximize my fold equity and bet as large as possible; I may as well give myself as much chance as possible of taking the pot down.
I'd argue that wet boards and draw-completing rivers are excellent to bluff, as they generate more fold equity - this river is a good example, where I should have a lot more 8x than villain, and that's one of the reasons I am tempted to overbluff here.
dont think I fold pre but I could be persuaded. Try to find some open ranged where T3s cant profitably defend without there being some postflop incentive and assess how likely those are to be deployed.
Dont wanna fold flop but I can be persuaded.
Older guys like this often have a trick or 2 up their sleeve and competent ones know their image and that they will induce folds when they bet. Should not be surprising if he stabs ace high when you check and river should not be an autofold regardless of sizing imo
River I mean he should have 9x and AK and vs 2bb probe think he's gotta call a lot but that getd back to assumptions for opening range. Check/mix or x/call gotts both be always justifiable, but 3x blocker is pretty good to catch with because he has very few 3's to bluff with.
As played I'm probably throwing out a river bet of 4 or 5 bb's. As the big blind you can have all the 8s (or trash 2 pairs) and it looks like straight value. The line makes sense. If you get raised you can snap fold. I'd feel ok with whatever outcome.
I estimate this to be villain's range on the river: As you can see, second pair, top pair and overpairs make up about 44% of his range, and these are the hands that I'm trying to make fold. You're right that I probably don't need to jam to get him to fold second pair, but if I want any chance of him folding top pair or overpairs then I need to go big. I'm meant to be shoving a
In this spot, I think if you do go with a larger bet against an experienced player, you run a risk of the bet to look more like a bluff than a value bet. If you want a fold you need the bet to look like value.
With ICM heavily affecting our decisions, the two other big factors as I see it here are:
1)Your own chip stack-- you don't cover UTG by much and he could cripple you. If you had 50BB you could defend a lot wider and put a lot more pressure on him.
2)Your own assessment of UTG's tight range. You're less likely to be able to count on a pair being good here, and a flush draw only comes 11% of the time. There's just too many spots where you have to put in more money bad. Early in the tournament, gambling like this is fine because chip EV is closer to $EV and gambling more with draws or weaker pairs is fine. This deep and this close to the final table, you need to be more careful with your chips.
As played I'm probably throwing out a river bet of 4 or 5 bb's. As the big blind you can have all the 8s (or trash 2 pairs) and it looks like straight value. The line makes sense. If you get raised you can snap fold. I'd feel ok with whatever outcome.
Okay sure but look at villain's estimated range:
More than half of the range is second pair or better, most of which is going to have a pretty easy call vs a third pot river bet. If you're going to bluff here I think you have to go big in order to target his Tx hands in particular. And for sure we will use the same size when betting for thick value.
With ICM heavily affecting our decisions, the two other big factors as I see it here are:1)Your own chip stack-- you don't cover UTG by much and he could cripple you. If you had 50BB you could defend a lot wider and put a lot more pressure on him.2)Your own assessment of UTG's tight range. You're less likely to be able to count on a pair being good here, and a flush draw only c
Yeah these are both good points and I agree, thanks.
If you bet the river, there is a narrow range you are trying to get him to fold of hands that beat yours but are weak enough to fold. I guess you would be trying to get him to fold a J or T. There is also a busted a flush draw, and leading out may look like that.
If you bet the river, there is a narrow range you are trying to get him to fold of hands that beat yours but are weak enough to fold. I guess you would be trying to get him to fold a J or T. There is also a busted a flush draw, and leading out may look like that.
Well I am certainly incentivized to bluff after he checks back the turn and caps his range. The question really is whether or not he protects his check back range or not, and we can see from the outcome of this hand that he did protect it by checking back top pair, so we know he has at minimum some top pairs in his check back range. If I probe the river then I'm targeting those hands as well as his Tx that all beat me, and any overpairs with which he checked back turn. I have to go large to get those hands to fold, and I would definitely go large with air on this river if I was going to bluff.
Tx is really a middle strength hand though and so arguably shouldn't be used as a bluff. But if I want to overbluff in the expectation that most OMCs will overfold, it's probably an okay hand to use.
Did you post results?
I would think he would have top pair or an overpair here a lot. His line looks like showdown value. He probably keeps betting a draw.
A bit buried in some of the other posts, but yes:
Blocking bet seems really bad. Rarely gets a better hand to fold. Doesn't stop bluffs much either.
Blocking bet seems really bad. Rarely gets a better hand to fold. Doesn't stop bluffs much either.
Blocker bets are designed to get a cheap showdown, not to make better hands fold.
That said, I agree in hindsight that the blocker bet was a bad decision in this hand. The only worse hands that might call are AK and AQ, given the board and his range - but I didn't have that figured out during the hand.
