Bottom set faces turn lead from NIT
1/3 NLHE 9 handed
Game kind of sucks. Some loose passives are up and locked down. We've been not exactly card dead but not seeing many playable hands and when we have we are forced to fold pre for the action.
V - Asian nit girl. Buys in for 200 or 300 and plays a very tight passive preflop game waiting for premiums post. Has no bluffing range. Seen limp calling A♠ J♠ OOP earlier. Led into the field opening 15 pre with AKo earlier. Fast plays PPs JJ+. I opened AThh earlier, one caller on my left, she squeezes 5x IP and me and caller both folded. She limp called with Q9♦♦ earlier, MW flop came J-T-8r and she got stacked by a loose passive's 88 when the board paired OTR. She's on her second BI. 300$. SB.
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Folds to Hero who has 450$ in MP and opens 7♣ 7♠ to 10, LJ calls, HJ calls, CO calls, BTN calls, V calls SB, BB calls. 7-ways 3rd to act. Everyone else has our 450 covered either barely or by a lot.
Flop 70 - A♠ Q♥ 7♥
V checks, BB checks, we c-bet 40, LJ folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BTN calls (loose passive older white guy, has us covered with about 500 to start the hand), V calls SB, BB calls (loose passive, hasn't played much and don't know much about him).
Turn 230 - K♣
V leads 150 leaving 100 back, BB folds, we have 400 back with BTN...
9 Replies
I would raise. She really shouldn't have a higher pp preflop. She did 3!. You are 23% against JT and getting pot odds. You kind of want to keep the other player in, but don't want draws in cheap.
Preflop is your style, but you know it is small. With 77, you don't mind playing it 7-way. I would have cbet a little bigger or checkraised on this wet flop.
Seems like an easy pot-sized shove, especially since any J/T/heart could screw us on the river. V is never folding, and I'm fine getting rid of the BTN.
I would definitely shove this, you are only getting beat by the JT combo and still get called by loads of two pair combos.
Result:
Spoiler
I shove, BTN folds, woman V calls, river 9♥, she shows J♦ T♦
PRE - open larger. At least $15. If it's a splashy game with loose-passive fish calling too wide, open even bigger.
FLOP - it's an ace-high flop. We should be checking or over-betting these. With a flopped set, facing a bunch of ATC ranges, many of which will include AX combos, I'd over-bet.
TURN - I mean... she's leading out into three opponents, including the PFR who c-bet the flop facing six opponents, on an obvious straight-completing card. What could she possibly have that isn't JT for the nuts?
We're not getting good enough implied odds to call, unless the BTN is going to come along, which seems pretty unlikely.
Hate to do it, but I think we have to fold.
Next time raise bigger pre and over-bet the flop.
OP likes to raise small. It is probably bad with range, but good with 77, as you want to play it many way, even if that didn't work out well here.
I don't think you can fold the set with the odds you are getting, even though she usually has the straight. No one is really going to make that fold.
I like winning every hand I play, but that's not how the game works.
OP is hurting himself with his sub-optimal bet sizings.
I would definitely shove this, you are only getting beat by the JT combo and still get called by loads of two pair combos.
yeah this is where i'm at as well.
I know you've said villain has no bluffing range but I wanna add some replies around that:
I think this is always a bit of an exaggeration (not you specifically, and I dont think you're doing it because you are wildly out of touch or anything like that) But it is just not good strategy to operate with 'never' and 'always' - i've seen this same/similar presentation of "oh they never bluff" before and its necessary not for you but perhaps others reading these threads trying to improve their game that it is definitively non-zero frequency. And I understand for narrative presentation as a way of communicating just how nut hugging or value hugging an opponents game appears in real time as a way to properly communicate your read to the rest of us following along, but I do think its important to acknowledge the slight hyperbole of 'never' or 'always', even as an addendum at the bottom of the post.
And this point leads us to taking a bit more nuanced look at the HH provided because I think they really demonstrate why this would fall towards GII vs folding or any other option.
If villain is limp calling with hands like AJ and squeezing 5x then the big raise portion of their range excludes sets but 100% includes damn near every 2 pair possibility the current runout contains. It seems the HH demonstrates a kind of merging of lines / poor understanding of relative hand strength and so more reason to GII here. Even if you think all 16 combos of JT are available here, you only need a few of those 2 pair combos to be ahead of b/e (27-32% max say)
I said it in another thread and I would urge anyone reading to pay attention at their own games in these spots but when I see opponents putting in a big bet where an All-in would be way more appropriate it is often not with the nuts. And especially when that All-in bet is not some huge over bet - all in from villain here would be 20 under pot size still so nothing crazy.
I limp in. But the deeper we are the more a small open to juice the pot is likely standard.
SPR is 7 against most in the field and the flop is pretty drawy. I actually think it is a decent mistake to bet so small here. No one is folding a flush draw. There's a decent chance someone in the field has Ax and likely isn't folding to a single bet. So I'd bet larger (perhaps even PSB) on the flop to start building for stacks a lot easier.
We pretty much only have a PSB left and we haz a set where bigger sets are somewhat unlikely and two pears are extremely likely. We can suckout if we're behind. Dood behind might lol call it off with a draw still. I shove.
GcluelessNLnoobG
