KK facing giga nutted line

Key question is whether V3 is likely to be 4betting wider with all the dead money out there - some people could be very wide here - all you know is loose passive with an emphasis on the loose. There just isn't enough stack depth to call in position so for 150BB I'm just going into default mode here, jam and reload. If you're certain that he's not 4betting without something very strong then sure by all means you could fold

I'm not disagreeing with the conclusion of not folding, but you have to be a bayesian to correctly assess the probability. If you have KK, there's about a 4% chance in a full ring that someone has AA, but once a person has 4 bet you the likelihood is way up. Plenty of folks in low stakes only 4bet KK, AA, and for those that don't their range is usually still very tight.

This topic has come up a few times in a short time frame so I'm going to hypothesize there may be some other variables that may alter the data set i've encountered lifetime (easily over 1000s of hours) And i'd add there's a chance tendencies/general population estimates of range and action might show some flexibility regionally.

I first started playing live poker in casinos down in AC New Jersey in 2002/2003. At that time, No Limit tables were outnumbered almost 4:1 by the limit games. On a friday night you'd have maybe two 1/2 NL games and then 10-15 2/4 Limit and higher and then the high limit tables had some mixed games running. I forget if the 7stud game ran by itself or only as a mixed now. Eventually the borgata opened (if you recall, the card room was in the downstairs area at first before moving to its current spot) and it wasnt long after that, No Limit really took over as the main game being spread. (Also ive played online a ton, party, paradise, etc) Thankfully Parx opened up near me by then i was usually regg'ing 2/5 games with some 1/2 in there when I was running bad. Soon after Sugarhouse (now Rivers) and now Philly Live too.

The point:
Back in the mid 2000s, any 4bet/5bet was only KK/AA ( if you ever even saw one) that even if it wasnt, it was so infrequent it would be detrimental to change range estimates without tabled hands. But by late 2000s, things shifted here in my experience. Though by that point I wasnt reg'ing the 1/2 as much, and if I was, i was just waiting for a seat at a bigger game. But the real eye opener for me was when i got some invites to some illegal card rooms and some private games: joey's (i think it was joey, friend of mine was a dealer there for a stint) spot with the flamingo on the door in north and Percy st in the south and in between peppered in were other various spots i played in - back of a greek restaurant off torresdale, i was late to the party but the Cavendish (shoutout my man in the kitchen with the best spanikopita i ever had) etc.

So the biggest bulk of my hours logged live probably came form the 1/3 at sugar - rivers because they would spread 1/2, 1/3, 2/5 and occasionally 5/10. That 1/3 was probably the juiciest game i ever seen. This was before parx stopped spreading 1/2 replacing the lowest stake as 1/3 and before philly live opened.

Seems like 1/3 is the adopted lowest stakes game spread in most places these days and so maybe thats the problem i'm facing is when 1/3 first popped up here, they still spread a 1/2, so the 4/5bet ranges I'm used to just might have a lil extra more often than what you'd see at a 1/2 or a 1/3 if 1/3 was the lowest spread limit.

I've played vegas a handful of times. I've played down in the gulf coast of florida at some places. I've played maybe twice in la rooms. Once up in niagra falls/buffalo and a handful at foxwoods and mohegan sun. I cant remember the last time I sat a game at length where I would place the average 4bet+ as only KK/AA.

But big caveat here: Its highly likely I'm very wrong and my bias of selection is due to a process of identification wherein I avoid the OMC/nits through profiling based on how they look/act/shuffle chips/talk/sit/etc etc but also I usually stalk late nights. After 11pm. The AARP card crowd is more often than not fast asleep. The guy who brings a newspaper to read sporting a pair of wire frame glasses with lenses so thick youre shocked the bridge of his nose hasnt buckled under teh weight isnt tap dancing into these rooms smellin like Pinaud Clubman or English Leather* at these hours.

And so I guess I want to apologize for being so stubborn with this and not recognizing enough the layers of filtration and selection bias inherent in my own regular play.

That said, if I'm playing at any normal god-fearing hour of the day, I will definitely make sure I'm ready to clasp my right hand into a fist to knuckle the table a few times with some gusto, toss my kings into the muck, and respectfully nod and say "nice bet, sir" and prooperly give these fellas their flowers in a way.

*Pinaud Clubman and english leather would be recognizable brands if you're 65+ and say things like "oh, I dont really like Ace King"

I can't fold vs. a guy I hardly know but I think is loose. What is your image? Have you been raising/3beting more than most?

I probably just gii for the stack sizes and the money in the pot.

At this stack size I make it like $60 preflop to offer poor 8:1 odds to ~setminers/etc. I think we're offering too good IO against a juicer type raise, especially when the SPR will be 6.5 HU (where he can make us play for stacks with our overpear quite easily postflop). At aggro tables where people attack juicer raises + calls I would perhaps consider flatting too.

Pretty gross spot facing the 4bet. One the one hand, his initial raise is quite small, our 3bet is kinda small (I'm sure you've seen your fair share of simple raises to $30 in your game, right?) and there is a crapload of dead money. On the other hand, a passive guy just 4bet $400 deep. Kinda difficult since it sounds like we have little history with him and he's kinda unknown (but I'm also guessing he doesn't put us on our Banana image either).

I've folded KK preflop 4 times, including twice against complete unknowns that I only had the single session time with (both showed AA afterwards). I wouldn't blame you for considering it here.

GcluelessLLSNLnoobG

What Java said. For 140bb, not folding to V3. Might fold to V1.

390 to win a total pot of 420 + 420 + 30 + 30. (Assuming V1 & V2 fold & V3 calls.) We need 43.3. We have that if V3 4!/call range is KK+, AKs, and 4 of the 6 potential AKo combos.

Do we think V1 and/or V2 call this too if we merely overcall? I'm going broke anyway if I shove pf and get snapped by AA, whether that's a 5! shove or on a non-A flop. Does an additional 90, or 180 if both call, into the pot make up for our decreased equity when this goes MW? Plus, if one or the other calls too, aren't they all poaching each other's outs? (Unless one of them has AA.) They aren't getting the odds to call 120 pf and draw to something speculative, so don't we make Sklansky-bux if they're sticky enough to do it anyway?

Or am I overthinking this and it's just a 5! rip, onto the next hand?