$7.50 PKO - Villain calls off 2/3 of stack with 66
So there is a play a villain made earlier today to call off most of his stack with 6♦ 6♥.
I am trying to figure out the logic behind this play and if and how this is a correct or incorrect play. This is later in the tournament and blinds are higher now. Stacks are between 15 and 25 BBs at this table.
The main villain with 6♦ 6♥ raises to 2BBs in the UTG spot. I go all in for 15BBs with K♥ K♦. Small blind goes all in for 15BBs. My bounty is $7 and SB's bounty is $19. This is a $7.50 buy in game.
Is this the correct play to call off 13BBs more with pocket 6's? I understand he is chasing $26 in bounties as well as the chips in the pot. He has to call off 45k in chips to try and win 120k in chips. Those odds are 2.67 to 1. Ofcourse there is the $26 in bounties which gets converted to chips. I don't know the exact math for that.
But call off with pocket 6's the right play when he is facing two strong hands in this situation?
PokerStars - 1750/3500 Ante 425 NL (8 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4
BB: 20.09 BB
UTG: 24.44 BB
MP: 14.78 BB
Hero (CO): 15.35 BB
BTN: 15.79 BB
SB: 15.29 BB
6 players post ante of 0.12 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.23 BB) Hero has K♥ K♦
UTG raises to 2.05 BB, fold, Hero raises to 15.23 BB and is all-in, fold, SB calls 14.67 BB and is all-in, fold, UTG calls 13.18 BB
I won't give away the ending as not to affect the discussion. Thanks.
4 Replies
I guess any actual calculations would depend on where in the tournament we are and how much the bounties are relative to stage / chips / value of stack etc.
So I really have no idea if 66 should be a call here but I'm unsurprised to see a short stack calling wide. Even with what you've given us there's 3 1/2 buyins of bounties in there, which is... what, like 15 starting bounties?
Given the bounty situation Villain is likely getting a good price to call with 66. But the chances of winning overall is probably around 30% given one of the opponents can have 77+.
It's a tough spot really because people will 3-bet jam with 15 bb's with hands like AT+/22+ so 66 actually has a decent chance against 1 player. Against 2 players it becomes more likely that somebody has 77+. Especially because SB can't win a bounty but jammed anyway. But even then the price (including the bounties) is probably good enough given Villain would have about a 20% chance of winning.
I don't know if I would do it or not in this spot. At Commerce casino many years ago in a multi day 1 $1,000,000 guarantee tournament that wasn't a bounty I actually called a 4-bet jam vs 2 players with 77. The other player who had previously 3-bet was clearly going to call the jam as well. I was the short stack there and tripled up vs AK and AK. I think the problem for me in that spot was that if I would have folded and seen the situation develop where I would have won I would have had a hard time continuing given the tilt factor. Here the bounties seem to be large and make it worth calling.
It would probably be a slightly better calling spot if SB had more chips than you (because Villain can win against the player with the most chips and lose to the player with the least chips and wins one bounty) or if you had the large bounty.
Typically though in tournaments I don't call all ins vs 2 players with hands like 66 unless I have a ton of chips and they don't.
Thanks for the feed back guys. In terms of doing the math, I'll try to figure it out later on. But the starting stack is 5k chips and starting bounty amount is $1.70. And yes you are correct Nath, the bounties in the hand of $26 is just over 15x the starting bounty amount.
I'd love to know the math of this spot. I would just love to know if that is an easy call off, or a bad call off and what is the correct chip and bounty amount that makes it a borderline call/fold situation.
As far as calling off with 66, I can relate to what you said in two ways Mr Rick. I also really hate the folding situations where you relaize you would have won the hand with the bounties. So alot of the times it likely is the best play in PKO to just play wild and go for the big stack and max amount of bounty wins. I also agree I don't like calling off vs 2 players with hands that can easily be dominated with a huge portion of your stack.
So I did some math based on that hand. I valued every starting bounty amount of $1.70 at 2.5k chips which is half the starting stack of 5k chips.
The $26 in bounties converts to approx 15 bounties, which equals 37.5k chips, approx.
So the pot odds call for villain with pocket 6's is now 45k to win 157.5k (120k + 37.5k), which is 3.5 to 1 odds, or a required 28.6% equity.
I ran some numbers in an equity calculator. If we put player 1 (myself) all in at a 10% range, and then the player 2 all in (SB) at a narrower range of say 8%, then the villain's equity with pocket 6's is 26%.
Here is the link I used to do those calculations:
Ofcourse other factors are at play here such as risk premium. But that's just what I came up with so far today.