PLO5 1/3/10 Middle Set
CO (covered) is a loose passive guy who's playing too many hands. Haven't seen much of him except that he's generally bad pre and post.
BTN (covers) is a MAWG who plays too many hands pre and post. Is fairly easy to read post due to bet sizings. Generally opens too wide and seems to play a straightforward game.
Hero (950) in HJ.
Folds to Hero who makes it 40 with 77654ds (spades and hearts). CO and BTN call. Blinds fold.
Board A74cc (Pot 135)
Hero makes it 100. CO folds. BTN raises to 300. Hero???
Based on looseness of players in position, one could argue for folding pre. I felt the postflop game of both was relatively weak, but maybe my open is still too loose. If I had folded, would have avoided a difficult decision. I'm in a ~7 SPR situation with middle set and OESD no flush draw, but it does seem gross either way. Any input would be appreciated. Thanks!
7 Replies
Is fairly easy to read post due to bet sizings. Generally opens too wide and seems to play a straightforward game.
Calling is probably correct anyway, but even moreso in the context of being straightforward and easy to read.
Though, the fact that he's W, means.... wait, I don't know what that means
Does he 3b AA OTB? On the flop we're in bad shape against AA but if he has a more balanced range of value hands then we should call and continue. If he 3bs most of his AA then obviously we're more confident to call - raising serves no purpose. Our equity plummets only on a club turn/river - if we do think he never/rarely 3bs AA pre and he checks behind on a club turn for example you could make an argument for bluffing the river. It's a big exploit but in a live game sometimes you can pull this off.
I was thinking he mostly 3b aces there on the button. With stack sizes, not sure why you wouldn't because you can basically ship most flops. So you're saying call and jam on a non-club turn? If he has clubs, then he has to call at this point anyways, right?
Given ur read it’s a snap call no issue
If ur read is wrong tho it depends in which way.
If he’s tighter then I snap fold
If he’s looser and whalier and I snap call
Folding is a huge exploit. You need a very good reason too like you’ve seen him flat call aces pre and also raise with them on boards that make no sense and he shouldn’t
I was thinking he mostly 3b aces there on the button. With stack sizes, not sure why you wouldn't because you can basically ship most flops. So you're saying call and jam on a non-club turn? If he has clubs, then he has to call at this point anyways, right?
This is really where live reads come into play - people play so exploitable live that like Eche said could be a snap fold or snap call. I would say if we call the raise we're checking the turn regardless of what comes out, we just have options going to the river. If a non club comes OTT then we're x/calling his bet/jam, if a club comes and he bets we're folding, if a club comes and he checks back we could consider bluffing a blank river against perceived AA.
When the VPIP of BU goes higher than GTO wise, our RFI should be more selective. While this hand is 0,1bb +ev open when you lose fold equity pre against player in position vs you it should tighten your marginal holdings. Low fds and low connectivity OOP will underrealize eq.
I'm OK w/ pre, but I might just limp at this table. As played, I flat flop and see a turn. So unlikely he has AA, but I'm not ready to gii. I call even if he could have AA because of your other outs and the chance to stack him.
I've been playing a lot more "call and see a turn" lately and it seems to be working.
FWIW, not sure I try to bluff clubs vs. this guy. If he does have AA, I doubt he folds; ditto if he has small clubs.
