Moving up to NL50 in 2025
Hi 2+2!
I'm playing NL10 atm, and my goal for 2025 is:
- Beat NL50 for 3-4+ ev bb/100 over at least 50k hands
Should be doable if I show up and play consistently at the optimal time of day and improve my game along the way.
I will post my results and graphs every end of month.
8 Replies
mini update
Realized that my biggest mental leak atm is getting attached to short-term results, which hurts my play and study volume (good results = lazy; bad results = unmotivated). That's why I decided not to check results for ~3 months (until the end of June) so I can really focus on learning and playing. I am properly rolled for NL10 so zero risk of busto if the downswing hits.
Update
I've withdrawn all my funds from GGPoker and decided to switch to playing on PokerStars.
The goal for this year remains the same.
"The second thing looks less dramatic but is arguably more surprising – the winrates of top regs at 50 and 100nl are HIGHER than the top regs at 25nl! This is a very surprising result. I hope given my experience coaching people at these games that you’ll trust my opinion when I say, this absolutely does not indiciate a weaker player pool at 100nl than 25nl. So what could be causing this difference?
Variance? Well, no. The 50nl sample for example has 23.1m hands, so we’re talking very high levels of confidence in these winrates given 80 or so typical standard deviation per 100 hands in these games.
There’s only 1 other variable it could be. Yes, that ever-unsexy one. Rake.
Just think about how crazy this is. Selecting from a SMALLER number of running games. Playing BETTER regs and LESS fish. People are winning at a HIGHER rate playing for 4x as much money! If there was ever motivation to get the hell out of the microstakes games, surely this is it. "
I think it's accurate to use the same argument for why stars might be the better option, if you have access to it, even though the regulars there are better than their GG counterparts.
very good post sir, ty for this
BR: $625
