Do I raise river or just take my showdown value
1/2 Tuesday afternoon - 60-300 BI
H - covers table, running pure, solid image
V - 40 year old white guy, has about 400, ordering mountain dews no ice, has about 4 teeth, and is unkempt. Relatively unknown, had most of his chips prior to H sitting down.
H has UTG straddle on, 4 limpers total including H and v in BB. H elects to check his option with QhTd
Flop (20ish)
QsJs6h
V bets 20, H calls, all other folds
Turn (60ish)
QsJs6h5h
V bets 20, H elects to call - H has V on Qx, but not AQ or KQ due to lack of raise pf - QJ would increase size imo on turn - due to that reasoning H still thinks his QT is decent a good amount of the time when also considering number of draws out there.
River (100ish)
QsJs6h5hQd
V bets 20, H raises to 80 --- would you have done anything on prior streets differently, are you just calling river?
11 Replies
Normally I would not raise this hand facing a triple barrel, but the river bet here is sooo weak. I like the raise and actually think you can go bigger, maybe to $120. It just seems like like this guy has Jx or even 6x that is clicking buttons.
Probably raise turn, given how people bet too big and too wide on flops in limped pots ... river is kind of whatever now there are fewer worse hands to call our raise, and people will very rarely have a call/call/raise line as a bluff.
Some people will assume you have draws/nothing on the river and play AQ/KQ this way, but others will still call a raise with Q9-Q7 here and sometimes even Jx.
Size is interesting, if V is sticky then I think $120 often gets called by Q7 but 60-80 are a lot more likely to get called by Jx (which is more likely given you can see 3 Qs).
I might raise the turn, but I don't mind a flat to keep him in if you think your Q is stronger. As played, I like the river raise, but you probably need to fold if he re-raises.
FWIW, I'd raise this on my straddle with all the limpers unless I thought one was like gg 😉
I would fold flop. He's betting pot into a legion of loose passives. If he has worse than QT oh well. AP I just call down.
Why are we stradding? Is it because everyone is, and if not, we really think we can make it profitable?
Flop: Usually leading with a PSB multiway is strong here, so I think call is very debateable without strong read, particularly with others to act,
Turn: Given same bet size, my drooler alert is on, and i call
River: OK same bet size again. Could be a real possibility guy is a drooler, but that doesn't mean he doesn't have it. I think it's very close between call and raise here. He could have AQ, KQ, QJ all beat you, and Q6, Q5. Given likelihood of drooler, all of these have to be in his range, along with sets including JJ. Counting all Qs and all sets in his range, I think his range is just about wide enough to raise when we add in some other random nonsense factor,
1/2 Tuesday afternoon - 60-300 BIH - covers table, running pure, solid imageV - 40 year old white guy, has about 400, ordering mountain dews no ice, has about 4 teeth, and is unkempt. Relatively unknown, had most of his chips prior to H sitting down.H has UTG straddle on, 4 limpers total including H and v in BB. H elects to check his option with QhTdFlop (20ish)QsJs6hV bets 20,
i like it and i might even go a little larger targeting Q worse kicker and Jx and maybe a sticky TT
i woukdnt raise turn just cuz you pick up BD FD and maybe they have an AhJ or something but given action i think you fold out too much raising turn.
if anything id raise flop IP some small % like 15 or 20% of the time - using the BDFD and what seems like a capped range that would still call a 2.5x flop raise cuz of draws.
ah **** lne more thing - its worth taking into accojnt your T blocks some JT and T9 hands that you want them to have so maybe raising river is fine at that size but with less frequency.
If you aren't value owning yourself occasionally, you're playing bad poker. The $20 flop bet is "big" in theoretical terms, but isn't a lot of money for the game and judging by the bets on turn and river, this player isn't a GTO master so I wouldn't read it as a necessarily strong bet. Heck, this is 1/2, this guy can absolutely be sitting there with KK that you just cracked, he could have Q2.
Bottom line, you have played quite passive and just hit the best card in the deck for your hand, you have to raise and if he snaps you off with a better hand, oh well. You're ahead a lot, and you'll get paid a lot. If you find out that V plays flopped sets with these kinds of small bets on a wet dynamic board, then any money being sent to him is just on loan and you'll get it back with interest.
Results -
I made a posting error - the flop had run out QxJs6s5xQx
V bet, and H raised to 100, V tanks and calls with Q5ss. No idea why he never raised but obviously his hand was good the entire way.
Weird line by V. The pot sized bet into three opponents would usually indicate strength, but then he bets the same amount on turn and river, which is usually weak. I get that we rivered trips, but we could be out-kicked (or up against some 2P combo that boats up), and sometimes the small bet sizing is just a guy trying to get called with a huge hand, or hoping to induce a raise.
I don't think I'd raise against an unknown. I'd rather just flat call and see what he has for future reference. But if we want to raise, I think we should go bigger, at least $120, but maybe even $160, when there are all sorts of missed draws we could have. I think we should like having a heart and a ten in our hand, blocking some of V's missed draws that will fold.
Just not sure how often V is calling with worse. He'd have to be pretty bad to call with Jx, or really insane with like 65. We're mostly targeting like Q9/Q8/Q7, and there just aren't that many combos possible. If he's a total rube maybe we can get value from J6/J5 that just can't let go.
ETA - Just read the reveal. The fact he tanked makes me think he might fold to a larger bet, but then we're essentially turning trips into a bluff, which seems silly here, and why I'm not keen on raising.
river raise is good, and I'd put in a raise on turn - when the sizing looks weak at low stakes, good chance the hand is weak, especially with the draws out there (or even jx)
