Should have been a PAHWM - major decision points on all streets
1/2 Tuesday afternoon - 60-300 BI
H - 30ish white guy, covers, has played solid, and has good image
V - 60-70ish old white guy, plays aggressive, solid range, but can make plays. Regular in the room, H and V dont have a ton of history. 500ish effective
OTTH
V is UTG and opens to 15, no callers until H in SB calls with AQcc - could get behind 3b, but figured UTG open and playing OPP against a solid range when I wiff is not going to be fun (thoughts?)
Flop (30ish)
9c8c6d
H donks out 20 (thoughts), V raises to 40, H just calls (thoughts?)
Turn (110ish)
9c8c6dAd
H x, V bets 75, H calls - thoughts on the first x, and just the x/call?
River (260ish)
9c8c6dAdQd
H has rivered top 2, and V has about 350-400ish left. Does H x, in order to call, x in order to fold, x in order to raise, or lead and if so what size?
8 Replies
I 3bet pre, but I understand the flat and might do it sometimes. I think I'd rather check/raise the flop than donk. I might re-raise his raise, too -- it's a better board for you.
Turn is fine. River I think I bet because he might easily check behind here. Not sure I can fold if he shoves.
I 3bet pre, but I understand the flat and might do it sometimes. I think I'd rather check/raise the flop than donk. I might re-raise his raise, too -- it's a better board for you.
Turn is fine. River I think I bet because he might easily check behind here. Not sure I can fold if he shoves.
So my first instinct on seeing the OP was in fact to see if OP could organize his thoughts by asking this question:
Why are we not 3betting the flop?
I think answering this question honestly will help OP know what the best plan is for flop and turn (and probably also river).
I would always 3bet pre against someone who is "playing aggressive."
Flop lead is probably OK. I thought about bet-3bet facing the FOS min-raise IP, but I don't think it makes a ton of sense because you likely aren't cold-calling hands like T7s or maybe even 98s, and might not be leading top set? Turn seems standard.
River is reads-based. If I thought that V would value bet thinly with AK or a worse two pair, I might check. If he's checking back a lot, then I think it makes sense to lead small-ish. JT also gets there, so it's def possible for you to bluff this spot, repping JTs.
Preflop against an older guy, I prefer to 3b oop with this hand in general, especially if there's an aggro player in the bb who could raise and make the situation uncomfortable.
Flop: I don't like the donk against an aggressive player. I'd rather xc. The minclick by V is pretty strong I think. I'm just calling but I'm putting him on KK+ with the minclick.
Turn: standard. A is V's range card.
River: I prefer a value bet. BDFD and JTs have both filled and are logical holdings for H.
I worry V might fold to polar sizing. If we bet 1/2 psb, V will probably cry-call AK. He can have 99/88, but he probably cannot raise them, so we will lose less when we're behind.
If we x, I don't see what V would bet here because H has very little thin value with which we call.
Against a solid player's x7.5 (!!) open from EP in a raked game 250bb deep, the solver folds AQs in the SB 80% and reraises 20%.
Thanks for the feedback
Reasons for why I did not 3B pre
1. Didn't want to play a pot OPP against an aggressive opponent, where I'd whiff the flop a decent amount of the time.
2. V's open from UTG and size indicates a strong range that most likely has our range either breakeven (UP 88-JJ) or in poor shape (QQ-AA, AK)
3. Smaller SPR more likely that I'd face a relatively smaller c-bet which would allow me to float more often
3bets preflop is something I need to increase/work on because unless I have position most of my 3bets are pretty transparent - I find myself only 3betting with strong ranges (TT+ , and maybe KQs+), or to isolate a shorter stack (drive out other players with bigger stacks). Maybe I should 3B maybe once or twice a session with 'marginal hands in position' like JTss, or A5sss
Results -
H leads for 100 and V relatively folds quickly. Maybe he had JJs or not much of anything.
Against a solid player's x7.5 (!!) open from EP in a raked game 250bb deep, the solver folds AQs in the SB 80% and reraises 20%.
lol, solver doesn't understand live low stakes sizing and thinks 7.5xBB is really strong. Total misuse of solver! Some people put things into a solver or ICM program and think they have the correct play. You can get information from software, but also get yourself into all sorts of trouble, like folding AQs here. Solver would have you play an extremely tight range against an UTG 7.5xBB open and 3 calls, assuming they are have top 5% hands. Total garbage output.
Grunch:
PRE - whether or not I'd call or 3B really depends on the BB tendencies. If he's tight, I prefer a flat call. If he's loose, it's close, but I might 3B with AQs. Calling is fine, though.
FLOP - What in the serious f**k are you doing donking out for 2/3 pot, with just a flush draw, on such a connected and dynamic board? What was your plan for brick turns? Seriously, I don't like it, and V's raise is not surprising at all. Definitely not folding to a min-click, but I'm already hating this situation developing.
TURN - Yes, absolutely check now. And just flat call. V was nice enough to give us a reasonable price to see the river and realize our equity.
RIVER - now I want to donk. I'd be specifically targeting AK for value, and possibly hoping to make KK raise as a bluff.
It seems very unlikely V has a better hand, unless he's got the 1 combo of AA or the 1 combo of QQ, and it's fairly unlikely he's going to put us on a backdoor diamond draw that got there, or even JT that called turn.
But we need to be deliberate with the sizing. Too large, and he'll fold everything that gets here this way. I think we want to bet small to induce. Since he made it $75 on the turn, betting $80 on the river might look weak and weird, and trigger him to stick the rest in.
If he got here the way he did with a better hand, he deserves the double-up. I'm never folding when we get here the way we did.
