India Pakistan
I am on phone, so this isn’t going to be the OP it should be. But seems like things popping off and the rest of the world is sleeping in this, and maybe shouldn’t be.
I will say, India seems to be reacting very strongly towards Islamists going in a murder spree targeting infidels in India.
It is not like this is way out of the normal behavior for Islamists. This is just the kind of stuff Islamists do. All around the world same thing.
Africa, India, Europe, Middle East, Russia, US. Plenty of cases like this.
It almost seems like India believes the govt of Pakistan itself was involved in this. But to the best of my knowledge this is not the case.
For comparison the 2008 Mumbai terror attacks were much worse by pretty much every dimension, and there was actual plausible links to the govt of Pakistan, and India pretty much did nothing.
I understand different Indian administrations, but still pretty big discrepancy in how these Islamist attacks were approached.
Pakistan warns of potential "all out war"
India and Pakistan is one of the situations were two countries are in conflict and war and have been for a very long time, but everyone just politely pretends not to notice.
Sometimes it breaks into invasions and large clashes, and then we all act very surprised and note that it is very unfortunate that this happens between two nuclear powers.
As for whether the Pakistani government was involved, that is not a straightforward question. If one takes it to mean some kind of unified front where pretty much the entirety of the Pakistani state stands behind this, then no.
However, there are a lot of factions, individuals and splinters in the Pakistani armed forces and intelligence services with strong ties to extremists, and they do this at a level and scale which pretty much guarantees that it happens with the blessing of powerful government officials. The evidence suggests that this includes sponsoring, training, harboring and providing intelligence to terrorist groups. Thus, the Indian claims of such links in this particular case are certainly plausible.
Of course, these days things are also complicated by the Indian government being nationalists, and like most nationalists they have a very combative relationship with truth and facts. That doesn't mean they are lying about these links in this particular case, but it does mean that one would reasonably expect them to be claiming it regardless.
As for the outcome if this should escalate, the bad news is that historically large-scale conflict between India and Pakistan have been required a lot of diplomacy and mediation by 3rd parties. And as of right now, the 3rd parties of the world are dominated by morons.
India and Pakistan need to play more cricket against each other to simmer down hostilities.
Maybe Death Cricket like in that film Death Race 2000. Only it's cricket.
India and Pakistan is one of the situations were two countries are in conflict and war and have been for a very long time, but everyone just politely pretends not to notice. Sometimes it breaks into invasions and large clashes, and then we all act very surprised and note that it is very unfortunate that this happens between two nuclear powers.As for whether the Pakistani govern
The long-running conflict between India and Pakistan has always been concerning. I remember hearing someone credible argue thirty years ago that (i) although he didn't expect to see the tactical use of a nuclear weapon in his lifetime, (ii) if such a thing occurred, he predicted that it would be in connection with the conflict between India and Pakistan.
The long-running conflict between India and Pakistan has always been concerning. I remember hearing someone credible argue thirty years ago that (i) although he didn't expect to see the tactical use of a nuclear weapon in his lifetime, (ii) if such a thing occurred, he predicted that it would be in connection with the conflict between India and Pakistan.
I think we can credibly claim that both parties having nuclear weapons is the only reason why they didn't already have a large scale disastrous war similar to the iraq-iran war of the 80s.
officially Pakistan has nuclear weapons only since the late 90s but in practice they had them since the early 80s and I think both sides were aware of that.
that said yes, tactical nuclear weapons could be used sooner or later in that conflict.
The long-running conflict between India and Pakistan has always been concerning. I remember hearing someone credible argue thirty years ago that (i) although he didn't expect to see the tactical use of a nuclear weapon in his lifetime, (ii) if such a thing occurred, he predicted that it would be in connection with the conflict between India and Pakistan.
I think we can credibly claim that both parties having nuclear weapons is the only reason why they didn't already have a large scale disastrous war similar to the iraq-iran war of the 80s.officially Pakistan has nuclear weapons only since the late 90s but in practice they had them since the early 80s and I think both sides were aware of that.that said yes, tactical nuclear
Nuclear deterrence is a popular theory, but not one I put much stock in. Historically, I don't see it stopping parties from going to war, it just stops them from admitting to it. The cold war is a good example, as it was anything but cold.
Perhaps on some level it can temporarily stop wars from being openly about eradication or destroying a country, but nobody knows where nuclear weapons arsenals will ultimately lead parties in a conflict. Someone going 200mph in a car can keep saying they will arrive at their destination quicker this way, but ultimately it becomes a bit of an nonsensical point insofar as they don't know if they will survive the journey.
As for nuclear deterrence in this particular instance, the Kargil war between India and Pakistan started in part due to hostilities caused by successful nuclear tests, which puts a serious dent in the theory that nuclear weapons is somehow a barrier for war. However, far more importantly, the lesson people need to take from the Kargil war is the horrible miscalculations and analyses that started it to begin with, and how they led to events spiraling out of control.
Most large wars start because people make stupid decisions, not because grand plans were set into motion. That's just what the leaders tell you after the fact, so they don't look dumb. When idiots keep playing with matches, the risk of things burning down increase.
Pakistan's defense minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif was on record yesterday stating that he expected an Indian military incursion, but we do not really access to reports on the ground (that I know of) that could tell us about India building up a capacity to do so... so it is unclear if he says this as a response to Indian rhetoric or to Indian military operations. The Pakistani PM has amped up his rhetoric as well, in response to statements from New Delhi.
On a smaller scale, there has been several reports of exchanges of gunfire along the border, but I have seen no reports of casualties.
As for whether this was an attack with links to Pakistan as outlined here in my earlier post...
Spoiler
As for whether the Pakistani government was involved, that is not a straightforward question. If one takes it to mean some kind of unified front where pretty much the entirety of the Pakistani state stands behind this, then no. However, there are a lot of factions, individuals and splinters in the Pakistani armed forces and intelligence services with strong ties to extremists,
... that still remains unclear. India is sticking to its guns and repeating them in UN assembly, referring to Pakistan as a "rogue state". Such terrorist links are not implausible, at least to factions within Pakistan, but India has not delivered much in the way of actual evidence. Pakistan has called for a neutral investigation, but whether they would support an investigation with genuine bite is another matter.
Shytes about to get real!
Anyway nothing would be dared by India to attack now during the IPL. There would be conversations like I said at the top cricketing level at the ICC to simmer things down - if conflict happened between the two countries and that crippled cricket in India that would be a huge blow to India's economy.
what side is Sri Lanka taking in the whole fiasco...
ohoh
We'll see. Indian missile strikes and air strikes are pretty much verified. We have some claims and reports of aircraft having been shot down, but it is a bit messy to sift out what is trustworthy and not. There are plenty of reports of intensifying small arms fire across the border, with claims of casualties. While the numbers aren't verifiable, the claims seem trustworthy enough.
At this point it is going to hinge on the willingness for an escalating land-war. Rationally speaking, neither side should want it... Pakistan because they would be the underdog, India because it would still be a slug-fest, a bitch on their economy and hurt their diplomacy. However, the current events speaks of exactly the kind of environment where miscalculation can run rampant.
India has also reduced the flow of the Chenab River and suspended the water treaty between the two countries, which is a pretty strong signal that diplomacy is close to breaking down.
We still don't know what kind of capacities are being mobilized along the border, so most of this speculation based on statements and fragmented news reports, some of which might refer to the same incidents but being counted several times. We'll know more when the dust settles.
today I tried to sleep through my local emergency alert test on my phone but then I woke up thinking damn nukes might have been used better get up
today I tried to sleep through my local emergency alert test on my phone but then I woke up thinking damn nukes might have been used better get up
We're still a long way out from that being the threat.
Right now we'll have to see whether there is any will to turn this into a larger war on the ground. The rhetoric is there, and air strikes deep inside Pakistan beyond Kashmir is worrying. However, my guess is that you need a couple of steps of escalation yet before this turn into a larger ground war.
As usual with the caveat that we do not have access to reliable intelligence about mobilization on the ground, so we're seeing the picture through rhetoric, reports of skirmishes, air strikes and missile strikes. This is a pretty inadequate basis for concluding much, so speculation is all we got at the moment.
Read an interesting theory about what is going on, that I think has legs to some extent.
Modi has been elected a Hindu ultranationalist platform, and his base expects him to react strongly if/when Pakistan Islamists attack and murder Indian Hindus, as they are wont to do.
India is doing very well economically; something like 7% growth. They have also made free trade agreements with Britain, the EU and a lot of US manufacturing (including Apple) committed to moving manufacturing from China to India. Very bright prospects.
Pakistan, like most Islamist nations, on the other hand is stuck in the mud economically and culturally. However, they are a major recipient of Chinese goods, including arms. So basically Pakistan and China have an agreement where China will provide Pakistan with arms (and who knows what else) in exchange for Pakistan instigating war with India. Obviously war is bad for business, so China would be a potential beneficiary of India going to war and resultant economic instability. And Pakistan is in the dumps anyways, so really nothing to lose.
This also has an added bonus of letting China see how their military hardware performs, which could give them valuable information for a future Taiwan invasion. Who knows what exactly is true, but everyone seems pretty convinced Pakistan shot down multiple high end French made fighter planes. Which is kind of a disaster for India, losing multiple high end planes just to attack a couple terrorist bases.
So, following this theory we would expect Pakistan to keep instigating war with India, per China's benefit.
It is also interesting seeing how European nations, especially Britain, try to navigate this mess. As they are much more economically and culturally aligned with India. But, they also have large Muslim populations, especially England with a large Pakistani population, that will riot and make trouble if any of the European countries side with India.
For the most part, they seem to be napping it out. Which is probably the best strategy for this particular game.
It is also interesting seeing how European nations, especially Britain, try to navigate this mess. As they are much more economically and culturally aligned with India. But, they also have large Muslim populations, especially England with a large Pakistani population, that will riot and make trouble if any of the European countries side with India.For the most part, they seem
complete radio silence in Italy from Meloni. we don't fear any domestic ethnic problem (we have tiny Asian Muslim and Hindu populations), most of the population simply doesn't care.
it can't be mapped in a clear cut way as a right v left western episode (unlike Israel v Palestine can) so that's it for now.
there is also the conclave ongoing which is sucking all attention for obvious reasons.
I do hope and expect that if things deteriorate further our government will trasparentely back India both because of the good personal relationship with Modi Meloni has , and because in general all the non Muslim world must be compact and adamant against any attempt of any Muslim majority country to gain an inch, both metaphorically and de facto.
and India is a bigger economy with a brighter future so even pragmatically you should choose it every time against Pakistan
Read an interesting theory about what is going on, that I think has legs to some extent. Modi has been elected a Hindu ultranationalist platform, and his base expects him to react strongly if/when Pakistan Islamists attack and murder Indian Hindus, as they are wont to do. India is doing very well economically; something like 7% growth. They have also made free trade agreemen
China's position will be interesting to say the least.
China and India are embroiled in their own ongoing "shadow war", where China controls territory captured from India from an incursion the '60s which are still laid claims to by India. The most recent clash was in Ladakh in 2020, when China launched new incursions into India. Ladakh is a mountainous region in the Himalayas, and the clashes happened in a very remote and elevated regions (think 4000+ meters / 13000 + feet), so we have very little reporting on the scope of things... but with at least a 100 dead and probably a fair amount of casualties, we're well beyond "border tension".
As to what degree China has a vested interest in a war between Pakistan and India, I would say "probably" not at this stage. Despite their own war and history with India, we're still talking about foreign two nuclear powers clashing. They might see benefits from tensions between the two countries, as it makes them look like the stable alternative geopolitically. However, it would be a dangerous game to promote tension while not wishing for war.
China will also be aware that while they do indeed have good relations with Pakistan, not all factions within Pakistan would be good for them if in control of government. And we're talking about a country where at one point coups was almost political tradition.
complete radio silence in Italy from Meloni. we don't fear any domestic ethnic problem (we have tiny Asian Muslim and Hindu populations), most of the population simply doesn't care.
it can't be mapped in a clear cut way as a right v left western episode (unlike Israel v Palestine can) so that's it for now.
It is actually interesting how much left wing social media accounts specifically are obsessed with the Israel Palestine conflict, and completely agnostic towards all the other **** going on in the world that cant be fit into the ideological box of their choosing.
I follow a few of the accounts Victor posts from, and others, and they are almost completely napping it out. I think we also have little understanding how much anti Israel social media influencers are paid actors following a very narrow script they are given by their handlers.
China seems to be playing a very dangerous game on a lot of different fronts. And as their society literally collapses from demographic collapse and unwise economic/political decisions from their dictator in chief, I would expect they will become even more desperate and dangerous.
Unfortunately, a lot of the dictators of failing nations like Russia, China, Pakistan, Iran, etc. seem to have a very nihilistic attitude that if they go down, they are going to take the whole world with them.
complete radio silence in Italy from Meloni. we don't fear any domestic ethnic problem (we have tiny Asian Muslim and Hindu populations), most of the population simply doesn't care.it can't be mapped in a clear cut way as a right v left western episode (unlike Israel v Palestine can) so that's it for now.there is also the conclave ongoing which is sucking all attention for obvi
India obviously isn't majority Muslim but it still has more Muslim residents than every country expect for Indonesia and Pakistan (and it has nearly as many Muslims at those two countries).
