1-2-3 NL AcJc equity to call with gutshot?
Effective Stacks: ~$300
Hero in Big Blind (BB) with AcJc.
$6 Straddle is on (CO).
PRE
Three players limp (CO, UTG, SB).
Hero raises to $30.
Four players to flop
Flop ($120): KsTd2d
SB checks
Hero checks (2nd to act) -> I am stuck between 1 villain and 2 villains behind so I elected to check and give up if someone bets heavy. I used to bet small but that didn't accomplish anything and felt like burning money.
CO checks.
Button bets $35.
SB folds.
Hero calls.
CO shoves all-in for $183 more.
Reads:
The Villain in CO is in his mid to late 30s. I saw him raise Ah9h preflop from EP and lost to AJ when he hit trips. Looks like he is playing dominated Aces preflop. He's pretty aggressive and straddles 2/3 of his hands and likes to come in preflop raising a majority of the time. His stack has been fluctuating from $100-400 and he has bought in 2 or 3 times only for $100.
Hero?
I'm thinking that he might be on a diamond draw with a weak Ax type hand and almost felt like calling but didn't want to make the high variance play. If I think any Ace is good and any non-diamond queen is good then I have 6 clean outs -> 24% equity. In terms of pot-odds I'd have to call $183 to win ($183+$35*2+$120) = $373 -> getting ~ 2:1 to call so need 33% equity. Am I thinking of the EV calculation correctly?
3 Replies
Interesting post. It looks like a fold at first, but it is close whether you have the equity to call. Depends on how much he would do this with a draw.
It's super close. If I put villain's range as Ad9d-Ad3d as well as Kd9d-Kd3d then we have 33.8% equity against that range so it's basically a flip. I had a gut feeling it was a flip but just don't like taking routes with super high variance
I'd mostly fold to the jam. I might even fold to the BTN's bet, unless he's one of those types who always bets whenever action checks to him, even in multi-way pots.
In theory, BTN shouldn't be bluffing into multiple opponents, and certainly not on K-high boards that would favor the PFR's range. The CO might be jamming with a draw, but again, in theory, he shouldn't be doing this as a bluff, after you call the BTN's bet.
