Did I miss a triple barrel?

I don't think so.

With a pair of Aces after raising preflop and getting called by the BB it is almost impossible to get them to call with losing hands by betting on 3 streets.

Here given the cards on the river the only hand you beat that might call is AJ. But you are now losing to AT.

I like the check here because Villain can have 54/75 and might want to bluff if you check. Though I kind of doubt it considering you bet twice.

I think I 3 barrel on hands that have a lot of semi bluff possibilities on the flop. So that Villain will think that I could have a hand that never got there.

Here though if you are going to 3-barrel it would probably be best to bet like 20% pot. But then I would likely fold to a raise/jam.

See, I draw the opposite conclusions. All the hands that beat you are going to bet the river, and you'll probably call, so why not bet yourself and get some value from hands that would otherwise check back?

A size as small as 20% is asking to be bluff-raised, but maybe 1/3 - 1/2 pot would be enough to more confidently fold if you got raised. Basically whatever size you think worse Ax will call is what you want to bet. (This also saves you from a shitty river decision if you check and the button bets really big.)

I might be more inclined to check and decide, even leaning toward check/fold, if we bet bigger on the turn, but at b40 button should still have a decent number of made hands we beat.

We're also beating A8/A7/A5/A4/A2 and at least a few of those will have a hard time folding to a small river barrel.

I'm not sure villain gets to the river with 75cc and 54cc, but regardless that's literally 2 combos of bluffs.

Not that it matters much but I thought the connotation of a triple barrel is that it was a bluff

As far as I'm aware, you can triple-barrel bluff or triple-barrel for value. It might just have that connotation because people talk about it more in the context of bluffs.

At 37 bb eff before the flop; I think I am looking to triple and play for stacks when I hit TPGK (especially here where BU has capped his range to not include AK). As others have said, you want to get value on the river as you are ahead of most Ax V has. A big polarizing bet (shove) seems the way to go. (If I knew V was the type of player who would bluff his missed draws when I check river, then I would induce).

Seems relatively close. In live poker I tend to agree with this line of thinking.

There's sort of a sweet spot bet size (somewhat depends on the game) where you are likely to get called by most aces, but you look strong enough that they're unlikely to bluff raise and might even just call with a hand as strong as A3s two pair.

You're making sort of a block bet.

On the other hand the 9, T runout is pretty bad as they likely call preflop with offsuit combos of A9 and AT. A hand like A4 likely only calls if it's suited. So your opponent is more likely to have the aces that made two-pair.

Still, they likely call all offsuit combos of AJ preflop so you can get value from that, and there are a lot of suited aces that you're ahead of that can call.

That plus being out of position it's nice to set your own price so you lose less when you're behind. If you bet something like half pot you can likely fold comfortably if you get raised. If you check and he bets pot you would likely have to call.

I come from a time where it was known that on flops that have Axx nobody will call 3 bets post flop. Maybe that is no longer the case. In a hand like this I probably check the turn (because there were no flush draws on the flop). But since a flush draw comes up and hands that are AcXc will get see a free card, I don't mind the turn bet. But my sizing on the turn would be more like 15,000.

While my river 20% sizing is small it is also pretty much the same size as the turn bet. Which is always inducing to people who called that bet size with Ax. It is very hard for them to fold on the river. I know it is for me.

If we bet half pot at about 22,000 we have 33,000 behind and when they jam it is a fold but is really painful when they show a bluff.

I don't mind calling after we check on the river I just prefer to bet 20% pot because I don't think there are a lot of bluffs here and Ax hands will not be bluffing after we bet unless they are two pairs. I think 25% pot here is a decent bet sizing as well. I think 33%+ means we will get called less frequently by Ax

Definitely bet the river - there's still value to be had esp in a 10 dollar mtt. I don't think anyone folds an Ace here - there will be some two pair hands but not that many combos relative to worse Ax.

Checking is OK if you think he turns a ton of bluffs into pairs

That doesn't really happen, they'll just check em back most of the time

Think it's pretty clear AQ is squarely in the middle of your value range:

• you'd have AK and some AA and 66
  
• you'd have some but not a ton of AT (checking the turn)
  
• you'd have less AJ but some as well
  

If he's ranging you effectively, he knows your checking range is mostly/entirely:

• air (some to little--as you say, you rarely triple) (KQ, KJ, 87, etc)
  
• Tx that rivered a bluff (also rare-ish for the same reason)
  
• Ax that doesnt value itself enough (the bulk of decline-to-triple range by far I think)
  

so it probably doesn't make much sense to have many bluffs for him here. You folding Ax with alacrity? Probably not...

In my mind it's pretty clear you missed a bet for small/small ish sizing. 3-7bb or so.

I think you're probably right.

AQ really more like lower-middle part of your valuing range

But you gotta consider the distribution of worse aces ips range. And his range overall:

-mostly worse aces
-appreciable 2pr and better
-nothing really in between

This is really how the strategy is computed here:

-you have some AA--why bet anything but small with all that aces hes gotta call with (horrific blockers)
-you have AK. Valuing for anything but a smallish sizing is silly (crappy blockers and we lose often enough to parry the larger sizings)
-AQ same thing
-AJ sheerly worse, using even smaller sizings
-2pr same blocker issues

Your range vs his range gives overwhelming incentive for this strategy:
- small or moderately small sizings only
-very high global tripling freuqncy

Its generated by the mismatch from the depth of AK AQ you have and the worse naked aces he has. Thats the preponderance of both you guys' ranges

Makes perfect sense. I'm realizing that a leak in my game is not recognizing these spots in-game and missing out on value.

I think in this type of buy-in against an unknown player, you can bet the river for a value bet or a block bet.

I agree with Nath, you are better off betting and folding to a raise as opposed to checking and calling a bet. You can bet 1/3 and fold to a raise. There are very few villains who will raise you with a weaker Ace as a bluff. Bet the river for 14K and fold if they shove.

I understand your reasoning for checking the river. Because if this player called you with Ax, there are now a lot of random low cards that are giving them 2 pair. We would be much happier if the river was a 9 or a 3 or a 6.