KK 5/10/25
Hi all,
Hero has tight image, a while ago got AA in versus villain’s QQ for $1,500 and he said he should have folded agai
IMO flat calling with AK on the turn is bad. Most of the cards mean you no longer have the nuts a 3-flush, the board pairs, or A or K makes a likely chop.
It is true it is hard for them to have AK. To have a set, they need to flat call with QQ/JJ/TT. No one should call the flop with a small pp.
If Hero had AK, flatting the turn would be awful in my opinion. Even if the cards listed above don't complete your opponent's hand, they may kill your action.
The possible hands for Villain by the time we get to the river are:
1. AJ or AT -- very likely with a turned club draw
2. KQ, KJ, maybe a poorly played KT -- with or without a club draw
3. Two pair
4. Sets -- I wouldn't give V all the combos of TT, JJ, QQ, but I'd give him a couple because people play poorly sometimes.
5. AK -- I wouldn't give Villain all the available AK combos because of the preflop play, but I'd give him a couple because people play poorly sometimes.
6. K9 and 89 -- given the relatively modest preflop sizing, I'd be inclined to give V most or all of these combos.
Given the action on the flop or the turn, I think that it is relatively unlikely that he led the river with any of the hands in categories 1 through 4. 1 and 2 seem they would give up, especially with a bad player left to act in the small blind. 3 and 4 seem like they would check/evaluate on the river most of the time rather than lead. I would expect 5 and 6 to lead the river and barf call a lot of the time if raised. It's really hard to get people to fold flopped straights when the run out doesn't complete flushes or boats.
Is there a chance that Villain is trying to turn some sort of combo draw into a bluff on the river? Yes, but in that scenario, raising accomplishes almost nothing. Is there a chance that Villain is betting two pair or a set for value and we can push him off it? Absolutely, but I don't think it compensates for the times that Hero is running himself off a cliff by raising the river.
I also think the poor player in the small blind complicates things quite a bit.
This is a button raise with a straddle at mid stakes, so they should 3! AK/TT+, but they are amateurs.
The raise should get villain to fold 2-pair. However, if he has a straight, he is likely not to believe you have AK and not be able to fold. Question is how strong a hand he likely has with the flop donk, but then the river 80% pot.
the part that sticks out to me as most important is tag rec
vs this specific player type in particular, i'm just sticking it in on the river and seeing if he wants to play for it
he seems super capped here we block both the nuts and the second nuts, im sticking it in and if i don't get snap called i'm pretty confident in winning the pot
SB hand strength is basically irrelevant he probably has something like T9, but it also makes turning this hand into a bluff look way stronger since we're jamming into two players, even though fishy player is probably pure folding this river
im confused on how we're checking from the button to the straddle so im just going to assume positions were listed wrong in the op.
im confused on how we're checking from the button to the straddle so im just going to assume positions were listed wrong in the op.
SB is checking to Villain, not Hero.
It is alnost impossible for him tp havr AK. A tag woild 3! It to a button rsise anf hero strongly blocks it.
I believe 2nd nuts is AT. At and 98s are hands he might flat call with preflop and you don't block those at all.
He either has a straight, 2 pair,. It is unlikrly hr turnef spmethomg into a bluff. A set is almost impossible.
The earlier AA vs QQ hand is relevant to V's range here in a way not mentioned before. If he seriously thinks that he "should have" folded QQ for 60bb total after presumably putting a good chunk of it already, either he thinks H is very imbalanced or he is so himself. More likely both.
He certainly wants to play flops in position against the SB fish, who has tons of dominated hands in his call range to pay off against TPTK, but may fold most of them to a squeeze. Combine this with a belief that he needs to fold AK to a 4! because H is such a huge nit, and calling preflop with this specific hand becomes a far more attractive prospect.
Given the action and history, I'd weight V's range far more heavily towards AK, despite H blocking half the combos of it.
I'd fold turn, given all available info.
Well I'm relieved the question was whether you should raise, not whether you should call.
On the one hand, I don't think people take offsuit straight combos seriously enough and will say **** like "I wish I was good enough to fold here" while shipping the pot with JT.
On the other hand, I think opponents' ranges won't be polarized enough here so you'll get bonus folds from things that had no business betting in the first place.
On the other other hand, I think population read for triple donking for B50+ into a multiway pot means they're essentially never pure bluffing, and the river size makes me think they're not super merged either, so I think you're running into the top of their range here a lot.
All-in-all, I think it's a losing play and I kinda doubt it worked, but I like the cut of your jib. So long as you show it down (whether they called or not) you probably earned enough fear and respect from people to be able to get more value with your nuts and overrealize equity with your marginal hands without ever actually having to turn another hand into a bluff against anyone at this table again, so you've got that going for you.
I think it's funny that 3 broadway boards are under-bluffed because not enough people turn made hands into bluffs but also because people don't make big enough folds, so you end up being better off not noticing when you're "supposed" to turn a hand into a bluff.
It's like an inverse version of the bell curve meme where people on either tail-end are wrong and the NPCs in the middle are right.
Sorry, yeah hrro strongly blocks the nuts ak and the second nuts k9.
Ak seems improbable, because you block it and the preflop flat. Also i dont know if he would play ak that way with the preflop donk. He might go bigger with it on the wet boardcon all streets.
Thinking out the math more, villain needs to fold more than 43% of two pair+ for a raise to be better than a call. I don’t really think it’s any better than a coin flip they fold JT+, so I don’t think you’re overperforming your call EV much if at all.
And we’re all in agreement a call is bad, so…
Any line where hero raises at any point is going to look like hero has AK. It’s completely reasonable for villains to assume hero just calls down and raises river with the nuts. That said, I’d rather start plowing on flop while we still have decent equity against some of the made hands. On the flip side, if V is bad enough to donk out on a board he should have no leads on, he m
This is basically my thinking too. In theory, blockers matter, and we block both the nuts and second nuts. But it looks like V really likes his hand, and we probably shouldn't be in the business of trying to make opponents fold 98 or just 2P, especially not if V may be somewhat tilted from being up-stuck.
I respect OP's play by raising river, whether it worked or not. If it worked, good for him.
I agree hero would probably get more folds if he started aggressively raising flop, or at least turn. But it's still credible that he could have just flat called the whole way with AK.
This is basically my thinking too. In theory, blockers matter, and we block both the nuts and second nuts. But it looks like V really likes his hand, and we probably shouldn't be in the business of trying to make opponents fold 98 or just 2P, especially not if V may be somewhat tilted from being up-stuck.I respect OP's play by raising river, whether it worked or not. If it work
If you are saying that it is credible in Villain's eyes, you may be correct, mainly because we shouldn't assume that a mid-level opponent has not done a thoughtful analysis of our line in real time during a hand.
If you are suggesting that calling the turn with AK would be optimal (or close to optimal), I strongly disagree.
Never said calling turn with AK is optimal. Just saying that raising any street to rep AK is credible, including raising river.
Yes, you could raise the river with AK. My point is it is a basic fish mistake to call down with a draw and then bet or raise the river when a blank hits. That is pretty much what hero is doing here. So it may be hard to get villain to fold a hand he bet 80% pot with 3-way on the river.
The blockers and preflop making the nuts and set unlikely is really powerful though.
Never said calling turn with AK is optimal. Just saying that raising any street to rep AK is credible, including raising river.
Raising on river is the least credible, or rather, raising on river after flatting both flop and turn is least credible, because of how wet the board is, and there’s a 3rd person in the pot.
I think it’s a pretty big blunder to not raise by the turn, and if the other players think that hero is reasonably competent, they won’t put him on AK.
As played i snap call.
I can‘t find a fold here.
We‘re underrepping massive
If he shows 98 or 2 Pair here nh!
We block teh Nuts, any set & hands that make 2Pair would likely 3b pre vs BTN raise & SB call .
If the thinking level in this game is below this reasoning , im more likely to raise flop with KK for
Value here against those 2 fishs..
Due to your image he‘s more likely to check 98 (try to trap or c/r ; imo you should c-Bet this flop with your entire range.)
His donk-bet sizing (1/2 pot) seems off
to me.
Its right to consider what he‘s 3barreling vs 2 opponends.
Also to cosider turn an river dont change the board.
Almost never having AK , TT+ in his Range 98 unlikely as well.
QJ , QT, TJ possible sure but those 3b pre very often vs. Nit BTN & Fisch (sb) bc its too easy to make you fold and play ip vs sb fish.
The sizing /l ine he took smells …
-vs. us underrepping
I wanna see what he holds
The possible hands for Villain by the time we get to the river are:
1. .
Is there a chance that Villain is trying to turn some sort of combo draw into a bluff on the river? Yes, but in that scenario,
I also think the poor player in the small blind complicates things quite a bit.
They are ?
Sry im too stupid, Wat are possible combo draw hands on this board?
Explain plz!
They are ?
Sry im too stupid, Wat are possible combo draw hands on this board?
Explain plz!
KK is a combo draw, over pair and OESD. KQ is top pair and OESD. There are others like those. Someone can have an ace and flush draw.
The possible hands for Villain by the time we get to the river are:
1. .
Is there a chance that Villain is trying to turn some sort of combo draw into a bluff on the river? Yes, but in that scenario,
I also think the poor player in the small blind complicates things quite a bit.
They are ?
Sry im too stupid, Wat are possible combo draw hands on this board?
Explain plz!
All A2cc+ and K2cc+, ~{Q/J/T}5cc+ (whichever the offsuit card is), and then 9xcc/8xcc depending how low your mid-suited hands go OTB w a straddle.
I don't think OP should raise the turn with KK on this wet board 3-ways. You really don't want to gii. You are drawing thin against a straight or a set. I think OP should have raised the turn with AK/K9, and it is hard to represent them on the river having called. OP knows KK is no good, and is trying to get villain to fold at least 2 pair.
I don't think OP should raise the turn with KK on this wet board 3-ways. You really don't want to gii. You are drawing thin against a straight or a set. I think OP should have raised the turn with AK/K9, and it is hard to represent them on the river having called. OP knows KK is no good, and is trying to get villain to fold at least 2 pair.
Raising the turn with KK would be very bad imo.
Everything is relative. Is raising turn worse than call? Probably, at least pure. But raising turn vs. raising river?
If you are mostly targetting two pair and occasionally a set on the river ... then you are doing _much_ better on the turn vs. those hands (not dead, if they call), it's much more plausible you have AK (more fold equity), and V can have a bunch of combo. draw type hands that call and are unlikely to donk river if they miss.
Everything is relative. Is raising turn worse than call? Probably, at least pure. But raising turn vs. raising river?If you are mostly targetting two pair and occasionally a set on the river ... then you are doing _much_ better on the turn vs. those hands (not dead, if they call), it's much more plausible you have AK (more fold equity), and V can have a bunch of combo. draw typ
As you can see from previous comments, I wasn't in favor of raising the river either.
