When was George Washington Carver President

The hand almost every villain puts a pf raiser in low stakes is AK. You have AK and got raised on the turn. I know it is 4:1, but I doubt against this villain you'll be good that often.

This is TJ 85% of the time, a set/2p that is getting worried about 2 FDs 10% of the time, and anything else only 5% of the time.

Standard Baluga Theorem spot, imo, and even though we are getting nice odds, it's a sigh/fold.

What's with the spam-looking thread title?

"Loose preflop, does not get out of line."

Since your decision here is pretty read-dependent, I think it's fine to let this one go.

It also sounds like you made this bet without having a plan about how to handle a potential c/r. In fact, given how wet the board is, checking back the turn might have been a better plan.

I am not folding with pot odds. There are so many draws both of you can have.

I know pot odds are great, but "Call Flop, Raise Turn" is usually such a nutted line.

The pot odds are so tempting, but I think I sigh fold here.

It's probably a sigh fold for all the reasons given, but not sure I could do it for the price.

Baluga Theorem is basically, "if you get raised OTT with a one pair hand, you are in trouble."

Showing his cards is a major tell of strength, as he has to be worried about tells the other guy might give off. Weighs his hand toward JhTh, imo.

OTTH

H calls the $81. Because you know pot odds.

Villain shows Q4 for a flopped 2 pair. Villain’s hand holds up and he pulls in the biggest hand of the night.

And this was the start of my downswing I’ve been in.

The most random thread title of all time is actually quite fitting for a BW spot.

The BWT has been covered by a previous poster.

So I’ll tell you WHO is baluga whale. Simply put Andrew BalugaWhale Siedman was one of the best to ever do it. You could say he was the GWC of online poker.

An inventor. An innovator. A trailblazer.

Not only is his BWT the most important concept for beating low stakes poker (even 20 years later), I’m pretty sure he also invented the light 4bet.

I remember my first year as an online pro, all I did was watch his live play videos over on DC. I can still hear his goofy (yet adorable) voice in my head.

You don’t include stack sizes of everyone but I’m probably just sizing up on flop and shoving a lot of turns

He also would not have left you in such a handcuffed situation with that turn bet.

Also. . .

If that was the biggest hand of the night, get a new dealer or find a new game.

Grunch:

PRE - think we can raise bigger, like $20 or even $25.

FLOP - think I might c-bet a tad smaller, like $20, or maybe just $15, when it's so multi-way. We could be up against some KQ or 44 combos, and want to keep their continue ranges wide.

TURN - yuck. JT gets there, as do some 2P combos like K9 and Q9. I would just check back now, to bluff-catch river. We can always put in a delayed double barrel if he checks again.

As played, we have outs against some 2P combos, and we're getting almost 4:1. It's a tough fold with these odds, but I kinda doubt we're good. Hard to say if we've got 20% equity. We're drawing dead against JT, and only have 3 to 6 outs vs any 2P combo that includes a K. We're really need his range to include a lot of draws.

I dunno. My gut feeling is we're beat a lot, but I'd have a hard time folding getting 4:1 when there are two flush draws on board, and V could have a lot of worse 1P + a draw type hands.

Was Q4 at least suited when he called you preflop?

Just read the rest of the thread.

If he's calling your pre-flop raise with Q4, he's VERY loose pre. If we know he doesn't get out of line post, the turn becomes even more of a check back or bet-fold.

As for the Baluga theorem and Marc Goone's take on turn raises - they mostly hold true at low stakes, but there is also no shortage of players who get short stacked, and will punt off the remainder of their stack with good draws on scary turns, hoping for folds, or praying to make their hand on the river.

That's not to say disregard Baluga or Hungry Horse. It's just to say we might want to put some probability weightings on this, like 80%-90% this is 2P+, 10%-20% this is a punt. If we frame it that way, this is not an auto-fold, getting 4:1.

I mean, Baluga Theorem says 1p hands are in trouble if raised OTT, not that they should always fold. That said, I estimated the chance of this being a punt at 5% back in post #3. Even if we double that, it's a sigh/fold.

Even at your 10-20% it's a sigh/fold, as that averages to 15%, and we are drawing dead to most of that. Sure, we had outs against Q4, but that is the very bottom of his value range.

I don't think it's likely to be a +EV call very often, but I also don't think it's just an auto-fold every time. I don't know exactly how I'd weight the probabilities. But if we give V all the draws that make sense, and all the 1P + a draw combos that make sense, and throw in some less sensible 2P combos like Q4s to go with Q9s (or even Q9o), because he's loose pre, and add in a bit of tilt possibility, it becomes a tougher decision.

I wouldn't have bet the turn. I'd probably fold as played. All I'm saying is it's not automatic.

So much I want to add this thread I don't know where to start or organize my thoughts.

Not sure if this was the biggest of the night, But the biggest I was involved in. I wasn't paying much attention to the size of pots I wasn't involved in. Also the casino was holding a promotion where they were giving away $1000 every hour. I think this brought in some regs who were playing tighter than normal trying to not go broke in order to play the whole night.

Not sure. I thought it was at showdown. There were a lot of red cards. 4 on the board 2 in his hand and I think my King was a diamond. Some time had passed and a different player commented about winning a pot with Q4o. This comment was directed at the main V of this hand. It had me questioning, but does it really matter?

I normally cap my pre raise at $17. I'll be reconsidering this. I've been getting too many players at $17.

As for the Marc Goone discussion. He also suggests choosing a bet size that gets your Vs to raise off their strong hands and call or fold their weak. I'm really surprised V didn't raise off here. There was another player still to act. Draw heavy board. This past weekend I got burned on players not raising off their strong hands, and I folded to a check raise bluff. wtf.

Whether the cards are off-suit or suited can actually tell you quite a bit about the player. Although Q4s is pretty poor to call with, Q4o is absolutely abysmal. It would say that the player will go in with complete junk and to keep an eye on him to make other poor decisions at some point.

With regard to the part about Goone's bet sizing, I have another thread along the same lines about how he feels about C-bet sizings. Marc makes it look like a piece of cake, but I would love it if he would keep the camera rolling so that we could see ALL of the hands that he's dealt over the course of an hour or so. I do think he's brilliant, but I also think we would get a better perspective if we saw everything that came his way.