Line check, two hands with overpairs

Hand 1 is a clear call IMO. SPR is less than 2 and you have AA in a 4bet pot. Villain is likely to have AKo or a midpair with a spade. There are only a couple realistic combos that you lose to. I like how you played pre-flop in this hand,

Hand 2 is weird. I think jam or call are both fine pre-flop. On the flop, you kind of have to raise against this absurdly small bet. I think I would just bet turn (probably jam). You can get called here by worse overpairs, flush draw + overcards, and maybe even AK that turns a gutshot. On the river I would sigh call. His line looks weak to me (3bet small pre-flop, cbet tiny and just call a small raise) and your check back on turn can induce a bluff. He could even have something like ATcc going for thin value with a worse hand. Again this is a low SPR spot with an overpair so you should feel pretty comfortable stacking off.

H1 seems well played. His over-bet jam on a K-high monotone flop is pretty gross. He's not supposed to do that in a 4B pot, at least according to theory.

There's probably no way to logic our way to figuring out if he has it or not. I'd either call or fold based on my read, but even if I think an opponent is capable, I would mostly just sigh-fold here. Worst case, we're folding to AKo with the As, and he's still got like 11 outs to make a flush or trips. But it's a 4B pot, so he could also have KK or just AXss and we're drawing pretty slim.

H2 - even though we don't know much about V, we can infer his max buy in and fancy card protector mean he's not a total noob, and probably has some experience. When we raise on the BTN and he 3B's from the SB, that's a fairly wide configuration, so I might 4B.

The problem is we're not deep enough to 4B-fold. Even a min-click is going to pot commit us, so we'd have to just jam, which would probably be fine. Flatting IP with a big PP is also fine.

Once we flat call pre, I like the flop raise on 954rb, but I think we could go bigger. Even if we make it $100, he'd still be getting over 3:1 on a call. We might be able to go $125 and just jam almost every turn.

When he checks turn, and we only have a little more than a PSB left, I'm just sticking it in, not checking back. If he has a better hand, he's just getting our money.

Our hand is vulnerable, and benefits from some protection. Additionally, if we check back we're inducing him to bet river with both value and bluffs.

As played, I hate the spot on the river. V might have made 2P or a set to beat us. We only beat bluffs. But since we checked back the turn, he's supposed to bluff at a very high frequency now, and go for max value when he has it.

I'd feel much better about calling if he bet around 1/2 pot, usually an indication of a bluff or thin value. I'd feel better about folding if he was just some random rec-fish, who's just going to always have it when they jam. With a capable V, this is a very polar bet, but we've induced this by raising flop for a small size and then checking back turn.

I dunno. I don't like it, but I think we may have to fold. Even though our line makes so little sense for value that our hand is now super under-repped, and he's going to have some bluffs that feel confident we'll fold to a jam, it's hard to find enough intuitive bluffs.

It's definitely possible he rivered 2P or a set with T9/TT, or possibly he turned a straight with 76s. He also might have flopped a set.

I'm not sure how often he's doing this with just two overs, or 66-88, or just a rivered top pair, when that hand can check and win at showdown if we check back.

Think I just sigh-fold.

H1 seems like a fold without reads that V is donk shoving wide for fold equity. People play monotone flops bad in lots of spots, but this seems very unlikely for V to see KQ!s and just decide to donk overbet shove.
Would much rather call QQs, AsK, KK, AAs. Even JJs should have a lot more equity in general.
As docvail said, there are no donk bets in theory here but I wouldn't be surprised to see a bunch of flushes in range.

H2 my best advice is to think about how your hand flows from preflop to river and what you are trying to do with it, because you seem a bit confused here. Solver likely raises/shoves some of the time preflop, and I don't know if your flop raise size is solver-ish but even if it did raise this size I don't see how it would check this turn.

River is whatever, you might have convinced V to bluff shove AK/AQ. But also possible V tanked flop with AA not sure if you are planning on folding to the 3bet.

Have to respect that ... and I did think twice about my snap initial reaction of "fold" after seeing your response.

I wouldn't beat myself up over just shrug calling because it's only 1.5 SPR and we have an overpair in a 4bet pot, but...

Initial reaction was that it's a monotone board and we don't have the flush card, which is very bad, and we have a bunch of hands that do have the flush card.

Yes, V is unlikely to have 9s7s ... but even TTs is also unlikely for similar reasons.

Trying to come up with a range seems insane, but given V donk shoved on a board he "shouldn't" then it's much less likely he's got like AsQx and is playing 3d chess ... and it's _very_ common for bad Vs to be in this kind of spot and see AsQs or KK and just think "LOL I put all the chips in now and hope to get called".
Also if Vs donk means he's way wider than he should be preflop then it gets a lot worse, as he has a lot more lower flushes to donk.

I guess if V is tight and basically donk shoving or mostly x/f then we are behind but probably have enough equity to call it off:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Ks3s2s
PLAYER_1 AhAd
PLAYER_2 AA,AsK,AsQs,KK,QQs
10890 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AhAd|37.3554%|33.7190%|7.2727%|3672|792|
AA,AsK,AsQs,KK,QQs|62.6446%|59.0083%|7.2727%|6426|792|
[/table]

Pure donk shove or fold, we are doing a lot better:

ProPokerTools Odds Oracle Results (2.3 P...
Holdem, Generic syntax
Board - Ks3s2s
PLAYER_1 AhAd
PLAYER_2 AA,AK,AsQs,KK,QQs
13860 trials (exhaustive)

All-in Equity
[table=head]|Equity %|Wins Hi %|Ties Hi %|Wins Hi Count|Ties Hi Count|
AhAd|48.2900%|44.7835%|7.0130%|6207|972|
AA,AK,AsQs,KK,QQs|51.7100%|48.2035%|7.0130%|6681|972|
[/table]

Yeah, this bolded part makes sense to me. The main reason to fold here for me would be Hero isn't getting a great price and has a narrow range with many snap calls (KK, AsKx, AsAx, maybe occasional flush).

I guess, as is often the case, the spot comes down to what we think of V's range. In the other HH, V is described as "60-70ish old white guy, plays aggressive, solid range, but can make plays. Regular in the room, H and V dont have a ton of history." In that hand, V seems to play pretty strangely (minraises flop, bets turn, folds river getting sick price) but not much info to be gleaned over all.

I think the ranges you used in your simulations look reasonable, if a little tight. In one scenario, it is extremely close between call and fold. In the other, it is clearly a call. And I guess the worst case scenario is he has a lot more flushes than we think (JsTs, AsTs, etc) and our equity tanks.

What it comes down to for me is that when I see a fish doing weird ****, I generally default to calling. It seems like a lot of posters here lean towards folding, which I think is reasonable (and maybe even the better option in live poker).

Also, I played $1/$2 in OP's neck of the woods (New Hampshire) this weekend and it felt like TPGK was the nuts in every hand. So maybe that colors my response here as well

Edit: want to add that although I agree V can have KK and AsAc, I would expect those hands to jam a lot pre-flop which probably helps us

H1:

Worst hand I see from villian is AsQx. I don't see TT-QQ donk jamming. I don't think they'll 3b with anything under TT pre and I'm giving them a lot of KK and AK. AsQx might not even call a 4b though probably does.

Assuming that's the case, we probably have the equity to call it off but we're definitely behind by a good margin. I'm not happy regardless.

H2:

It's weird. We raised UTG but just called the 3b. Once we raised the flop, we're saying we have something. And him calling says the same. But then we check behind on the turn. I see a somewhat capable Villain piecing together that our best hand is a vulnerable overpair. He could be doing this for value with AA-QQ or a straight he didn't get to XR on the turn since he expected you to bet. He could be doing this as a bluff with pretty much any holding thinking you've capped your range by checking back the turn after the XR.

I agree with the previou poster that river bluffs after the XX turn tend to be smaller than a PSB. But maybe he knows enough to realize 9x isn't supposed to fold to a small bet on that river and needs to jam to get you off it?

Honestly, the check on the turn really hurt us here because we have no way of really knowing what Vs range is. I bet we get shown 9T/TT or AA-QQ a lot if we call.

Thanks for the feedback

H #1 - I was with many of the posters in the sense that I didn't see V shoving a flush or even KK on the flop. Seems like a massive over play by him. I tanked called and was shown JcJs and the run out brought a spade. Looking up the odds based on our hands on the flop, I was still slightly ahead 57%-43% so I guess in theory its not a terrible call.

H #2 - I tanked even longer. During my tanking I attempted to range V with big broadway clubs that picked up a backdoor flush, over pairs to my jacks, TT, 99, 76, A2. I eventually stuck in the call and was shown QQ

Some will say these spots are just coolers, but I honestly think putting in 100ish BBs with medium strength hands is sort of spewish and that many player types in the low level streets aren't putting this money in unless they have a pretty strong range/hand.

Not sure what you mean by "its not a terrible call." That seems results-oriented to me. In this spot you need 38% equity to call profitably. Against his hand, you have 57% equity. That means calling in this specific instance is +EV by a large margin. You are winning something like $126 making this call. Spots that are this profitable do not come up often.

We can argue about what his range looks like that jams here, but, as I mentioned in my post, I think something like JsJc is going to be the bulk of what he has in this spot. I think folding here would actually be a big mistake.

The second hand is whatever. I think it's a pretty close spot. If you want to say it's not a cooler, that's fine. I think if you find a fold here it's a great play considering he is value-jamming a hand that is literally one pip better than yours.

I think a fair analysis of your decision in hand one requires looking at your equity against his range, not his exact hand. If his range is flopped flushes and pairs with a flush draw, it's probably a bad call.

Hand two is a more difficult decision because we flatted pre rather than 4B, then raised flop, but then checked turn. That line is going to induce a lot of river bets. It's not like we'd check turn with 2P+ after raising flop. It'd be a very strange line with AA/KK.

Here, our exact hand isn't doing well against V's range, and our range looks pretty capped, barring the unlikely scenario we rivered a set with TT. Our hand is pretty close to top of range, but most V's won't find enough bluffs here, and we really only beat bluffs.

Interesting that V depolarized and jammed with QQ, when JJ is really the only hand we can have that's strong enough to call, unless we also have QQ (assuming we didn't 4B that pre). Well played by him.