1-2-3 AcKc line check

OP, you'll probably get a lot more responses if you post on the forumserver version of the forums. A lot of folks don't like to have to re-log in to respond, so the new server threads tend to get fewer responses.

I'm confused. If you are the SB, and the BB is the straddle, how are you opening? Do you mean the BTN is the straddle?

Pre seems fine if so, though you could go like 24 since you are in such a bad position. Flop is fine, imo, though many others would want to see a smaller bet on this ragged board to protect your c-betting small range.

If we were deeper, I'd go even bigger OTT, and if shallower, I'd shove. But at this depth, splitting it up over 2 streets might get a crying call of the second one, ep if V wasan't paying much attention to your stack and didn't realize he was commiting by calling turn.

River is an LDO shove.

I don't understand how a BB straddle works, but 20 is too small with a straddle to 6 in 1/3. The rest seems fine.

Yeah, this version of the forum is a pain.

I corrected the button straddle in the original post. Thanks for pointing that inconsistency out.

How do I go to the forumserver version of the forum? I naively thought it might just be as simple as going to forumserver.twoplustwo.com but I also see my posts there so not sure the what you guys mean by forumserver here :/ Thanks for the guidance

@deuceblocker/@Garick - you guys are right, I should've bumped it up to at least $25 pre

Yeah, they mirror the new format on the old, but if you post in any threads that are made in the new version, you have to log in to the new one. OG version is :https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/170/live-no-limit-holdem-cash/

thank you!

PRE - yes, you can likely go bigger with your open.

FLOP - with AK on A96rb, I'm over-betting the flop.

TURN - once V calls our 60% pot c-bet on the flop, I'm sizing up on the turn, because we missed value on the flop. If we over-bet the flop, and V called, I wouldn't mind the 1/2 pot bet on the turn K, because opponents are going to fear we have AK.

If we only have $255 and the pot is $220, I might just jam, to get max value from all the worse AX and potential draws.

RIVER - jam for 1/3 pot seems like the only thing to do.

Going to start overbetting this scenario going forward and see how villains react. I definitely don't see them folding Ax there and that allows me to bet smaller on the turn relative to the pot and make the Villains almost feel committed to call off their stack by the river

What're your thoughts on betting smaller relative to the pot on the turn so we set up a SPR by the river so the villain feels obligated to call? 1/3 pot seems like Ax might call. Is it better to overbet flop and then shove turn like you're saying or should i overbet flop and then smaller on turn and shove river?

It depends on the stack sizes and SPR. When possible we like to just play a two street game and get it in on the turn, but it's not always possible when we're starting deep, so we need to play a three street game.

Not all ace-high boards are the same. AxKc8c is a little scarier than A72rb. We can get more value from worse Ax by fast playing and betting big on flop and most turns on A72.

On AK8 it'll be harder to extract value from worse Ax. We might get a big bet called on the flop, but we'll need to size down on a lot of turns, and go for three streets.

Jeez, finally the software lets me in. What a PITA...

Anyway, odd game. BU straddle, 3 blind game, SB should be phenomenally tight. My own range here is something like JJ+, AK, AQs, and I wonder if that's too loose.
Yet >3X'ing still got a bunch of callers lol. I guess with 12 in the pot already, and 6 to call, making a pot-sized raise to 24 is a decent open. Or just make it 25, though we don't hate a crowd with AKs.

Are we still bombs away MW leading into A96r (the software not letting you scroll up to see the other posts is a definite downgrade, though you can edit and see everyone else's posts) with the ~40% of our range that doesn't have an Ace in it? As short as we are---300---100 in there already, first to act and 5-ways, I want to x-jam this on the flop. They have an Ace or they don't. It's not the end of the world too if it checks through, with 280 back. Though a T or 5 coming off will be annoying.

that's a good way to look at things. I never thought of Axx type flops in terms of two vs. three street games and betting accordingly. Very insightful!

I don't understand the inverse statement. You're saying that Ax won't fold on the turn if I jam $255 into $220? If I wanted Ax to fold on the turn I would have to bet more so why not just go all in here? My thinking was that Ax would fold if I bet heavy on the turn. Maybe that is wrong way to think? Would a weak Ax type hand put me on a king with the shove and call? Please explain. I think you're onto something..

Asking "what would I do with the inverse" is a Hungry Horse thing. It means asking what you would do with a bluff when you have value, and vice versa. Here we have value, so how much would we need to bet as a bluff to get Ax to fold? The answer is Ax probably isn't folding, so we're scared to bluff big, so the inverse would be we get to bet big when we have value, to get Ax to call.

Wouldn't a weak Ax fold on the turn when the Ks hits and i overbet? I guess I'm not sure if Ax calls overbet. I'd think Ax would probably feel outkicked and I'd be folding out the weaker part of his range like weak Ax hands and possible flush draws. Don't I want to bet small but not give them the right price/pot odds to continue and give them a chance to make that mistake? I was trying to play a three street game here instead of two

Would you fold AQ, AJ, or AT on the turn? What about A9 or A6? When there's a flush draw on board? When your opponent might be bluffing sometimes? When your opponent might have KQ, or QJ, or JT, etc?

If Ax folds to an over-bet, what hands call a small bet? If they're afraid of AA/KK/AK, is AX calling any bet, when they're drawing dead? Would they be afraid of those hands, when they have Ax?

An over-bet jam on the turn looks pretty polar, doesn't it? Like we have AA/KK/AK or we're bluffing, right?

What happens when the river is a blank? Does V call off the rest when we jam? What's his river jam calling range look like?How much of it beats AK?

The reason you're playing a three street game in this hand isn't because that's the right way. It's because you raised small pre and bet small on flop, leaving just over a PSB going to the turn, and now it feels weird to over-bet jam on that Ks. If you raised bigger and c-bet bigger, the turn jam isn't an over-bet.

Once you get to the turn the way you do, you can bet small, but it just looks like you're milking your opponent for value. He's likely to continue with draws to the nuts at least as often as worse Ax.

But if we over-bet, V is probably calling with the same range, and we get max value from his entire range.

Don't think in terms of getting called more often, which leads to smaller value bets. Think in terms of getting more value when you get called, which leads to bigger value bets.

We still need to size our bets based on V's range, but in this scenario, V is only calling with strong hands and good draws, so we can go bigger.

I had to think about this but it makes sense. Villain is only calling with strong hands in this scenario so in order to maximize EV I should bet bigger since the probability they call won't drop that much with a bigger bet vs smaller. I did this toy example to make sense of it in my head:

EV (Value Bet) = P(call) × Size of Bet
Smaller bet: higher P(call), but lower dollar amount
Larger bet: possibly slightly lower P(call), but much higher dollar amount when called

So if P(call) only drops slightly (say, from 70% to 50%) when I size up from $110 to $255 on the turn:

I'll make more money overall with the bigger bet, because
$255 × 50% = $127.5 EV
vs.
$110 × 70% = $77 EV

That is going to make such a huge difference in my win-rate!

Yes, the higher EV of betting larger to get more value from a strong range compared to betting smaller to get called more often is mathematically proven. But we don't need to prove it mathematically.

Just think about it logically. Ask yourself how much smaller your bet needs to be before V starts adding hands to his calling range.

Like, think about the range that calls a larger bet, and then find a hand that folds to that same bet. Maybe 88. How much smaller does the bet need to be for 88 to call? Now think about all the value we sacrificed from all the stronger hands that would have called a bigger bet, just to gain a sliver of value from that one extra hand that calls a smaller bet.

That's not to say we can always go huge with our bet sizes. We can't. It depends on V's range. If he's only calling with a strong hand or a strong draw, he's inelastic, and we have thick value, we can size up. If he's got a wide range including a lot of weak hands and meh draws, he's elastic, and we need to size down with our strong value.

Stack sizes matter too. Depending on the stack depth, we may need to do something to manipulate the pot size, like check-raising flop or turn, or betting very small on the river, to induce a raise.

We don't need to think about any of that here, though, starting $300 eff. We can just raise bigger pre, over-bet the flop, and jam turn for less than pot. As played, the turn over-bet on the K isn't going to get called as often, which is why we want to get as much value as we can on earlier streets, by shoveling money in when we know our hand is probably best, and our opponents are less likely to fold, believing they have more equity.

The mistake isn't over-betting the turn. It's not raising bigger pre and not over-betting flop.