KK 5/10/25

Fold river as played but with these stack depths a turn raise is extremely sexy

the issue with raising turn is if you raise and get called you have absolutely no idea where you are in the hand. you could still be ahead, behind, or dead to a chop. you also push out the fish who is just dead money.

I don't understand the bolded. Hero is never getting called by a worse hand if he raises the river.

I know that. Hiwever. If you fold you are sometimes folding to worse hands. If we cant flat all and it is raise versus fold. that is a readon to raise.

So did villain fold?

This guy ether flopped 2pair+ or has some silly blocker hand we already beat (unlikely because we block the KK), so not sure what raising
river accomplishes.

I mix between calling/folding and I fold more often. We got kind of a bad run out where we just lose to a lot.

I can't imagine this guy folding 2 pair+ after putting in $1000 but i've seen stranger things. He could be scared money but $1000 is a big bet.

If I was going to raise - I would of done so before the river. Raise flop or turn - and I also would mix between calling/raising. Never folding flop or turn. Might of raised turn with your exact holding since you hold a Club and a heart so you can possibly bluff river if a club comes but more so to get a cheaper show down. If he just flats you kind of save yourself a river bet if he just calls - and is very unlikely to lead after you raise turn, and if you improve you can go for value.

tag rec is the exact player type to lay down 2 pair when they're capped on the river to a shove

sure - but you're kind of reaching - what if he has a low straight - what if he has a set, what if he doesn't fold 2 pair. We try and find the best +EV play, and do you think shoving all in is the best EV play? Maybe the shove works 40% of the time. We are risking $3000 to win $2240. We need this play to work 70%+ for it to justify the risk - (I think my math is right???)

I don't mind it if you play with the guy a lot - and you can build some history with him - but I would of much rather bluff shoved a smaller bet than this big $1000 bet.

It looks super value heavy - and who knows - we could have the best hand. I'm just not sure turning a hand as strong as KK into a bluff is the best play.

I don't like the shove, but, as I explained, we don't need to get him to fold a better hand that often. Sometimes, we are ahead. He could be bluffing or decided to continue firing OOP with a hand we beat. Then he always folds. If we aren't going to flat call, we need to also count the times when we are ahead and otherwise would have folded.

If we assume he always wins when he calls then we need to win $3k from folds for everytime he calls, if he folds 50% of the time (1 fold before a call) that's only $2,240 but if he folds 66% of the time (2 folds before a call) it's $4,480. At 60% (3 folds for every 2 calls, or 1.5 folds for every call) it's $3,360.

I think the math says he has to fold 58.56% of the time for us to break even, and while it's too early on a Sunday to bet huge on that it's pretty close to the simple numbers above 😉.

Wise man once said "villain needs to fold more than 43% of two pair+ for a raise to be better than a call."

Yeah, about, because sometimes you win because you are ahead anyway. Villain can be bluffing, thin value betting, or afraid to show weakness OOP.

You misunderstand: I’m not talking about how often villain needs to fold overall for the play to be +EV. That’s 57.4%.

I’m saying in order for raising to be better than calling, villain needs to fold a hand that beats us 43% of the time.

If villain has enough worse hands that either play is +EV, then calling will be the higher EV play unless the opponent folds a better hand 43%+ of the time.

I understood exactly and was agreeing with you.

Results Dumbo?

Yeah I feel like with a player behind I just let this one go as played, raise flop works as well just because BTN can’t go too crazy since you have the big range advantage on the flop

V tank called with 98cc.

Called it:

it's only a bad bluff if V is also not betting 2 pair here because if he tanks with 98 he's folding worse

Does he play 2 pair that way? He might x/c with 2 pair and might not bet 80% pot on the river. 2 pair is not that much on this high connected board.

I never said it was a bad bluff. I said I'd be more worried about 98 than 2P, because I think 2P slows down on the river.

I really respect the balls on OP for attempting it. Mad props to him. And I think his reasoning is pretty sound. I think 2P folds often enough to this line (I'd rag-fold 2P here, if I'm V), and we don't need 98 to fold all that often to make this +EV.

Definitely a daring play. OP is likely a very strong player. I understand about strong blockers and removal because no 3! preflop. However, I wonder if this could be fancy play syndrome and not wanting to fold a premium starting hand.

Villain is apparently an amateur, so maybe unpredictable. However, I wouldn't donk with 2 pair on that flop. OP can have the nuts and all sets. If you lead with 2 pair and get raised, you almost have to fold, but maybe someone could raise with KQ/KJ/KT or some other pair and draw. Then it seems like an overplay to bet 80% pot on the river with 2 pair. So, yes, if he had 2 pair and played it that way, he would probably fold it to the river raise. 98s shouldn't fold, because it is too strong a hand and OP's might not take this line with AK, and OP is representing that one hand only.

As I said before, I wouldn't necessarily expect Villain to lead the river with 2 pair or sets here. To the contrary, I would expect him to check/evaluate most of those holdings on the river.

And I think he barf calls with 89 and K9 to a raise nearly 100% of the time. (And he obviously calls with AK.) To state the obvious, recreational players players don't like the fold flopped straights, especially when the board by the river still requires two cards to make a straight and there is no possibility of a flush or a boat.

That's why I didn't like the river raise.

Yeah, concepts like blockers and removing hand because of no 3! are great for deciding to bluff in close situations. I don't think this is a close situation. Don't think villain plays 2-pair this way. When he leads big on the river, it is probably a straight, but he could have some hand with a pair and draw like OP's and is turning it into a bluff. However, probably not often enough that you can flat call.