2/5/10 - 3BP OOP Awkward spot 3-way
V1 is unknown, seems fishy
V2 is a solid reg
Eff stacks 1000
Hero open HJ w/ T9hh, V1 CO calls, V2 BTN 3! 320, hero call, V1 call
Flop(360): KhJd3h
check, check, BTN cbets 50, hero raise 275, CO call, BTN folds.
Turn (960 in pot, about 650 behind): 3s
hero...?
Cold-calling the flop x/raise is pretty strong, and the board pairing isn't that great for us. Most hands that just called the flop are continuing vs a shove on this turn. Maybe we'll sometimes fold out dominating flush draws, but often not. If we block bet we're commiting ourselves to calling it off if V raises, so it seems a shove is the only size we should be considering. Check/decide is seeming reasonable, but still don't like it
10 Replies
What? I think your preflop sizing is messed up. Probably 120 3bet.
I probably fold to 3bet. Our stacks aren't deep enough to call this big of a 3bet oop.
By the time you get to the turn, you're thinking oh **** what to do now, but it's a preflop thing imho.
Anyhow, I don't think you have any fold equity now after board pairs.
V range quads, kx, draws.
I guess you can go small(150) then ship rivers to fold out draws.
Yeah my bad, 3! was to 120
As said, probably fold to the 3! pf. AP, well, what do you perceive an unknown maybe fishy V's range is here? When they call, overcall pf, check and coldcall a 75% raise?
My guess is it's some sort of combo draw. 33 is raising and there's only one of those now, maybe JJ too, and KK raises pre. Maybe KJo, though isnÂ’t that raising too? There aren't many FDs they 'should' have here. AQ/AJ/QJ. Anything else? I guess there are various 1P-no real draw hands---KQ/KT/JT/QJ etc----but aren't they folding Flop?
If you shove, it's 650 to call a pot of 1610. They need 28.8%. Vs you doing this with something like AKo no draw, they've 25% with like QJhh, 27% with AQhh. I don't know if V will realize they need to fold. I also don't know if they're passive enough to have JJ here.
You could check & eval. They x-back, bet/fold if draws brick.
Tempted to shove if you think you've fold equity.
(from Modern Poker Theory)
Preflop if this were heads up it would be a mix between calling/folding. Folding all the time would be reasonable, but calling some of the time is also reasonable. Ultimately, if this is a mix in theory, in real life there will very often be some factor driving us either pure fold or pure call. With the fish in the pot we'll often be OOP to two players, but this should be compensated by the fact that we're 1. getting better odds on our call 2. get to play with the fish 2b. The BTN will often want the fish in the hand, but it also gives him less leverage when he doesn't have a hand
If I try to approximate this spot pre in GTOW, including the CO call, the HJ response is in the image below, and T9s is indeed folding. However, this is assuming that the CO has as extremely narrow, condensed flatting range (below below), while in actuality they obviously do not. So the question is — if CO is actually flatting pre with a very wide range, and will overcall the 3! with a very wide range while almost never raising, will hero in HJ be calling wider than when the assumption is that CO is super condensed?
I would think this is so, but I'm not certain. When CO is so condensed, calling with T9s leaves us OOP against two ranges that are crushing us. But even when CO is calling wide our EQR can't be great.
Preflop is obviously OK at mid stakes. Not sure about flop x/r, as your low draw is not as good as it seems on a wet board.
Did CO have more effective stacks against BTN? That might explain the cold call rather than a shove on the flop.
You are drawing dead against a boat and in bad shape against a higher flush draw. Not sure if he will fold a draw much if you shove. Don't like x/f either.
Did CO have more effective stacks against BTN? That might explain the cold call rather than a shove on the flop.
Yeah a bit, maybe another 400? Not sure
You are drawing dead against a boat and in bad shape against a higher flush draw. Not sure if he will fold a draw much if you shove. Don't like x/f either.
Yeah, I don't like any option here. I had plans vs BTN if CO folded, knew how I'd play vs different lines, on different runouts, etc. But the cold-call from an unknown puts us in a really bad spot.
Preflop is obviously OK at mid stakes. Not sure about flop x/r, as your low draw is not as good as it seems on a wet board.Did CO have more effective stacks against BTN? That might explain the cold call rather than a shove on the flop.You are drawing dead against a boat and in bad shape against a higher flush draw. Not sure if he will fold a draw much if you shove. Don't like x
Is it though, at 2/5/10? We're pretty shallow. Assuming fishy calls, we're looking at a 360 pot, OOP to both, with 880 back, and we paid 90 for the privilege. Seems lacking in IO and SPR with a 10high SC.
Yeah, the reg is probably OOL a little, but I still don't like calling. If I really got a megaread they were weak, and my image supported it, I'd prefer a 4! to calling, even w/o blockers. And I like SCs more than most of you do!
But I'm folding pre. Make it 2/5 vs 5/10, OK, I might call.
If I try to approximate this spot pre in GTOW, including the CO call, the HJ response is in the image below, and T9s is indeed folding. However, this is assuming that the CO has as extremely narrow, condensed flatting range (below below), while in actuality they obviously do not. So the question is — if CO is actually flatting pre with a very wide range, and will overcall the
Note that not only is T9s folded, but almost 70% of our range, including hands as strong as ATs are as well. You'd have to have very compelling reasons to continue here, and I think you'd agree that the factors here don't clearly cut in one direction.
The good/bad thing about T9s is that it has relatively stable equity, so having CO be stickier with AJo or QTs or whatever isn't going to help you here. It just means you're going to be in worst absolute and relative position of a 3way pot needing to realize essentially 100% of your equity to recoup your preflop call.
A couple of factors I'd also like to mention is that most players in these games aren't 3bing as aggressively as GTOw does facing a raise and call in front of them, and BTN is probably playing pretty strictly linearly with the fish in between.
As for postflop, obviously you're not x/fing the turn and you'd MUCH rather stick the money in yourself than x/c.
as played, turn is a shove. once we check raise flop, it's the best option and we can fold out a lot of hands that beat us while also holding a fair amount of equity.
idk re flop check raise either...board clearly favours the 3 better - we're repping 33, maybe KJ and then a ton of draws
But I would fold pre when we're not closing the action and will be playing out of position and perhaps to two players.
