AK vs SB jam + nit flat — deep weird spot (1/2 live)
Game: $1/$2 live, full ring
Stacks:
• Hero (CO) – covers all
• HJ (nit) – $900
• BTN (fish) – $325
• SB – $200 (shoves)
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Preflop:
1 limp
HJ (tight nit, playing pretty snug all night) raises to $20
Hero (CO) looks down at AKo, decides to flat because nit’s raise range is likely tight and I’m not trying to blow up the pot just yet
BTN (fish, loose passive, not thinking much) also flats
SB (short stack) jams $200
HJ asks how much and quickly calls the $200 with $700 behind
Hero?
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Reads:
• HJ is not the type to get out of line. If he had AA/KK, I’d expect him to rejam to isolate vs the short stack and protect against BTN.
• His flat seems more like JJ/QQ/AK, maybe TT.
• I don’t expect HJ to bluff much post if I flat – he’ll likely play face-up in a dry side pot.
• BTN likely calls wide, but if I shove, he probably folds most hands worse than AK.
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Thoughts:
• If I shove here, do I ever look credible? Or does it just look like I’m trying to blow them off marginal hands?
• If I flat, I’m in position and get to realize equity vs what looks like a capped nit range. He won’t bluff postflop, and I can navigate based on board texture.
• Folding feels way too tight with AK here, but I don’t love getting it in deep vs what looks like JJ+ a lot.
What’s the best line?
• Shove to try to fold out JJ/QQ from the nit?
• Flat and play a dry sidepot in position?
• Just muck and avoid a high-variance spot?
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Appreciate any thoughts — especially from those familiar with live 1/2 deep dynamics.
8 Replies
Nit doesn't call back 4bet jam without aa/kk.
Is it credible? It doesn't matter, to nit eyes qq/jj doesn't worth 700 more.
But do you really know that he doesn't have aa/kk?
I'd have 3bet the nit all day long. Easy money if they just flat.
I don't mind a fold now actually. His range isn't just what you think.
Nit doesn't call back 4bet jam without aa/kk.
Is it credible? It doesn't matter, to nit eyes qq/jj doesn't worth 700 more.
But do you really know that he doesn't have aa/kk?
I'd have 3bet the nit all day long. Easy money if they just flat.
I don't mind a fold now actually. His range isn't just what you think.
Any arguments for flatting?
I wouldn't raise. Just flat call and see a flop. Could also see folding.
We're 450 bigs deep here. I think we get dominated here a bunch by the nit, even though we block AA/KK. If you think the nit has QQ/JJ etc, ok, but I'd think they'd be much more likely to pile with those or with AK. Get to see all 5, clean up equity, harvest dead money, etc...
Plus, card removal. Even if the nit has QQ-TT, what's SB shoving with? Something Ax Broadway right? We need those outs to catch up.
Tbh, I fold and feel good about it.
I would 3b or fold pre, even against a nit. If he's really a nit, he might raise-fold a hand like 99 or TT. He might call with a hand like AQs that you are ahead of. He might raise-call AK himself, and then fold the chop facing a cbet. He might also let you off the hook and 4b, at which point your hand becomes a very easy fold. These are all good outcomes that can only happen if you raise. On the other hand, I also don't think it's unreasonable to fold AKo facing a single 10x raise if you feel that you are never ahead. Cold-calling is probably the worst option, as it often is.
As played, I would fold. You have zero fold equity and still need to beat the sb "short stack" who actually has 100bb and may just have AA or KK himself. You don't want to call off $200 here and have to fold when the nit bombs flop into a dry side pot.
