Why K7s is a fold? Why is K9s a call?
Sunday Million MTT
final table. 9 handed.
Folds around to CO with 10BB who shoves. 2 folds. We have K7s in BB with 30BB stack.
Chip leader has around 66BB. a few other stacks above us.
K9s is a call here against 10BB shove? Why is that? not including ICM.
Why is K7s a fold here not including ICM?
How do we include ICM in our GTO solves? is icmizer good software 4 this due to pay jumps if we are playing 4 monies?
3 Replies
Well, K9s obviously has more equity against the shoving range than K7s, for obvious reasons of being a higher card and having more straight possibilities.
I think there are solvers that can calculate ICM, but I don't know which ones do that. Your ICM calling range should be significantly tighter, though, especially at this stage of such a big final table.
Sunday Million MTTfinal table. 9 handed. Folds around to CO with 10BB who shoves. 2 folds. We have K7s in BB with 30BB stack. Chip leader has around 66BB. a few other stacks above us. K9s is a call here against 10BB shove? Why is that? not including ICM.Why is K7s a fold here not including ICM?How do we include ICM in our GTO solves? is icmizer good software 4 this due to pay j
The ranges can change pretty dramatically due to ICM. This is especially true at this stage with 9 remaining and big pay jumps looming. K9s and K7s are both almost certainly supposed to fold there with the ICM adjustments.
ICMizer can solve for ICM-adjusted ranges. You plug in the payout amounts and set the remaining number of players, positions and stack sizes and then it solves the spot based on your average finishing position and how much money you will win on average instead of just whether you will gain or lose chips. The other popular program with similar functionality is HRC (hold-em resource calculator).
The ICM-adjusted results aren't a perfect model of reality, but they're going to be more accurate than just playing for what will make chips on average.
You're supposed to call K9s in the non-icm-adjusted spot for a couple reasons. CO is supposed to be shoving pretty wide, including some hands like Q9s and J9s that you have dominated. So occasionally we'll be way ahead, while other times we'll be flipping or way behind.
We're also getting a discount calling out of the BB. You only need to put in an additional 9 BB to win 21.5 BB, so you only need less than 42% equity to make the call (based on chip EV). K9s likely has something like 42% equity whereas K7s probably has something like 40%. They're both relatively borderline hands but there is a line somewhere as to how much equity you need to call.
Keep in mind the chart assumes you're facing a nash shoving range, which is pretty wide. If your opponent is a nit shoving TT+ and AQ+ then you're going to want to adjust and call off a lot tighter.
People are not shoving light enough. ICM is too nitty, but more accurate than cEV. K9s is a much stronger hand than K7s in general, but I would fold either of them. Might need KQs to call.
