Lost in a limped pot
1/2 - Friday early afternoon - table is kind of a snooze fest. Besides 2 marks, the table is filled with relatively tight-passives. The type of regs who open the first or second table everyday.
V1 (covers)- Older white guy - gives off OMC vibes but can get OOL, stabs, uses aggression when warranted. Not a crusher but not a nit/drooler. Last two posts I have made contained him in them.
V2 (400ish) - MAWG - no real history, been at the table for about an hour only two things of note is that he has raised in EP to 10-12, flopped middle set, slow played them, and got paid off.
H (300ish)- white 30ish male - image should be solid - V1 prob looks at me as competent but a little aggressive.
No real pf agression - if its an open its a made hand
OTTH - H in UTG +1 open limps 108hh (yes this could be a fold but table was very passive, and just wanted to see a flop - flame away), a few more limps, V1 limps in SB, V2 limps in BB.
Flop (10ish)
8c7h2h
Both V's check - h bets 10, MP/LP limpers fold, both v's call in the blinds
Turn (30ish)
8c7h2h10c
x, x, H bets 25 with top 2 and flush draw, V1 clicks it back to 50, V2 cold calls, H? - 96 got there as well as J9, I guess a set is there, a bigger flush draw, a pair plus draw..... H has about 280ish behind.
7 Replies
I might be in the minority on this site, but I would probably open-raise this hand at a tight-passive early afternoon table. I think I would prefer folding versus open limping though. If I am going to open limp (and I don't often) I would rather do it with hands like low pocket pairs and suited aces that don't really mind a bunch of traffic OOP. This hand is a snap fold at an aggressive and/or sticky table, obviously.
Interesting spot as played. In position, multiway, I think I would just call and evaluate the river. V2 seems like he has a big draw, but V1 could be nutted. Minraise IP is usually pretty weak, but I have found that minraise OOP is usually a very strong hand. You could also get into a dire spot with a raise/jam where you get called twice and run into a better hand AND a better draw.
YouÂ’re probably not getting called by worse , and you only need 14% equity to continue profitably, thereÂ’s basically nothing to do but call and play river.
I know you tried to get out ahead of this, but let me try and reframe preflop for you. It is very very very likely that limping T8s from EP is -EV, no matter what you do postflop. So what we’re assessing here postflop is “what line loses the least?” Which is fine if you’re not trying to win as much as you can, but don’t delude yourself into thinking it can be profitable
Not the lineup I'm open limping from UTG+1 with this hand. Now that you are here, call. No reason to raise.
we're in position just call the 50 and eval river, maybe you make a boat. limping pre is dumb
OTTH - H in UTG +1 open limps 108hh (yes this could be a fold but table was very passive, and just wanted to see a flop - flame away).
If you're going to play Bingo, at least go to a church where you might got lucky with some toothless granny.
Results -
H realizes that it is prob an overplay to do jam turn, so he just makes the call.
River - (180ish)
8c7h2h10c2s
V1 jams, V2 thinks for about 40 seconds and calls, and H finds an easy fold
V1 shows 88 for rivered full house
V2 shows 9h6d for turned 2nd nut straight
Grunch:
PRE - don't open limp. Especially not from EP, unless you're doing it with a balanced range that includes some limp-3B's with more than just AA/KK/AK (my favorite shenanigans limp-3B's are the trashiest offsuit AX combos - A6, A7, A8).
FLOP - I like the pot size bet. I wouldn't hate an over-bet, but potting it is fine.
TURN - You have top 2P with a flush / boat draw? For God's sake, over-bet 1.5x and pray they both call with their better draws that will more than likely brick out. Like, seriously, no one is likely to have top 2P beat with a flopped set. Maybe someone has 96 sometimes, but...seriously? 96s, all of 4 combos, with only 96hh being a prime candidate to FAFO by calling flop. Just 1.5x it and print.
Yes, J9 gets there too, but...you're worrying about two opponents limping in from the blinds with trashy hands, AND calling the flop with just a straight draw when there's an obvious flush draw on board. They really shouldn't be here without 96hh or J9hh, which is just two combos. If you lose to offsuit combos of 96 or J9, go back and re-read what I said about not open limping from EP.
As played - you got min-clicked by V1 and V2 calls, soooo...
1. Assuming you thought to bet $50 into $30 and they both called, would you be happy, or worried?
2. Do you think either V is likely to have flopped an OESD, turned a straight, and checked it to trap, and is now ONLY raising to 2x, or just flat calling a 2x raise, with the nuts, while hoping you don't check back when action gets to you, and hoping you don't draw to a flush, and is now hoping you'll raise?
Answer key:
1. I wouldn't be too worried if I bet $50 into $30 and they both called. I might occasionally be checking back on brick rivers, because WTF do they have that can call a bet, but I'll hate myself if either turns over 1P or a worse 2P (like 87 or T7) that would have called another bet.
2. It seems really unlikely that any opponent is going to call flop with an OESD, make their hand on the turn, but NOT donk out when there's a FD on board, and also NOT raise bigger than 2x when you bet, or just call when you bet and the other guy clicks it. It's an almost certainty that you have the best hand right now, and I like this situation even better than if we bet $50 and they both called. I might actually jam over top for $288 total, when there's $155 in the pot already. We have 15 outs to improve to a flush or boat and don't mind folding out 96.
