$1/$3/$6 PLO4 - Potential preflop spot to create giant side pot

This is $1/$3/$6 PLO in Houston, Texas by the way

Hello? His range is 100%

Looks like a fold. Utg+1 being a loose passive is a problem, stacking off with non-premium KKxx is normally incorrect.

Hero is also just too deep to justify this theoretically. We can pick much better spots vs maniac.

Arguably call > jam too.

I also think Hero sidepot equity will be lower on average than you expect, and card removal can hurt it.

As an Omaha thread lurker, I respect the hell out of each of you and your way to articulate PLO strategy here. Despite the separate thoughts, I think you two differing here is still indicative of understanding the nuances that make this an interesting spot. A far, far cry from...

Does that mean that I'm not correct? It's not very close imo i.e. sorry if I think it's a dumb question. You are printing money in the sidepot and losing a bit in the main pot.

Do you understand that you have 65% equity vs a completely random hand? Probably not since you are asking this question. Ok now you know

Card removal can hurt, but it can also be fantastic. The fact that 3 other players want to get involved means it's less likely we're up against AAxx; and we could even theoretically be up against 2 lots of AA, most likely in UTG+1 and LJ's ranges, in which case we're doing great.

Or we could knock out some strong KK from UTG+1 by 5betting. It's useful to note that we're only ~120bb deep with UTG+1 while we're only ~220bb deep with the guy with like 50%+ of hands and is very likely to come along with that entire range when we 5b.

Ds double pair hands are great candidates to put lots of money in preflop because it's hard for us to be doing awful and we're regularly doing great. With that including a high pair and thus fds that are going to be good a chunk more of the time, effective stacks not really being that deep, and the presence of someone willing to put massive overlay into every pot, I think we should be jumping at the chance to get monies in.

All fair wazz.

I have played around with a few more sims of this spot since my original post, and I am a bit more open to it now. I originally interpreted the $6 straddle as optional, which also lead to more conservative analysis. (Silly structure imo when straddle could be a single red chip). Maybe too much solver-work lately so I'm more inclined to auto-fold kkxx vs cold 4! not closing the action even with a maniac in the mix.

Also important I think this was only single-suited kings though? Dd vs ds.. The second suit adds a lot of equity.

Biggest thing is I slightly underestimated the value of 99, vs 2 more connected sidecards.

Agree the card removal less relevant than I first thought, also born out in my sims.

Assuming ss kings i'd estimate something like 62/38 equity in sidepot vs maniac. Note to posters here - even when someone is maniac we don't actually range them as pure 100% - general guideline is we build in small margin for safety / error and may give them something like 75 or 50 percent to compensate.

I still think utg+1 range is very important since passive open can be so aaxx heavy.

For me personally, this may be a bit of my personal hand selection bias, and I categorized it as fringe fold vs other KKxx or Axxx I might play more aggressively instead.

This is a good discussion hand (more so with utg+1at 200bb+) . We can ask questions like does hero prefer akkx or kk99, or does hero prefer 99 or 2 connected sidecards. Or does hero prefer ds axxx or kk99 singlesuited.

I think from a theoretical standpoint i prefer ds aqxx and ajxx, and may actually want to unblock the king given action.

Oh also I don't know that knocking another kkxx is a big plus for me - that is actually a scenario where the card remove hurts the most for the sidepot. 65 -> 59 equity vs random hand.

Could you get behind a call here?

This is a standard fold whereas I would maybe get it in with KK99ds or hands like KKQJ all the way down to maybe KK76ds only due to maniac spew range in play

Normal ranges we r just folding here and moving on without regret

I wouldn’t take flip equity spots like this vs maniacs that result in potentially robbing us of future opportunity cost, especially if we have direct position on deep stack maniac.

A random trash hand like 7543ss could be printing 3 ways vs a hand like this and Aces from other villain vs us

Fold and don’t think twice unless you want to specifically give action or run once to get uber deep stack/tilt induce.

This is a fist pump repot. Why are we thinking of folding vs super tilted guy?

If we're in Houston, is it one of these clubs where you pay an hourly charge and there's no rake on the pot?

Because there, it may be playable. Otherwise, I think it's just a fold.

I'm with wazz (and OmahaDonk) on this one, 100%.

Less solver work, more common sense. You need to prove that Hero is losing a lot in the main pot to convince me this is a fold.

How wide are you presuming the main villain is? I'd presume he's still at least 60% but probably much closer to 100%. Then again we don't have that much information and have to guess based of a vague description (what is a BS hand?).

Misread dd as ds. Don't know why people are doing this, it just confuses, especially when there's no flop yet.

I still get this in. Every chance CO makes both a huge preflop mistake and then possibly another one on the flop. KK88ss might be close.

You can add further considerations here too. Some players are the type to leave in a huff after losing a big pot, where others are liable to go on mega tilt and add thousands to their stack after losing. What are we doing if we lose - rebuying for the minimum, or pulling up a big stack to cover CO? Obv if he's the type to leave rather than tilt, or, even worse, lock up after winning a big pot, and we're rebuying for the minimum, then we tighten up, while the opposite of each of these conditions can lead to us loosening up our range here.

Get to the flop as cheaply as possible. You know death cards. You know flops you're comfortable with. Some flops will indeed be POS.