Interesting turn card OOP vs fish

I would think that this turn can basically be a range check, but I understand betting if this guy is someone who will limp-call, like, A8o and have a hard time folding.

As played, I don't think you can ever fold. You have outs against everything and are beating a lot of spewy overplays like AxTd, Ax9d, etc.

EDIT: Would also raise bigger pre OOP facing the limper. 15 would be my raise IP, would go at least 18 or 20 from OOP. Kinda just want to take down the dead money here.

Technically, you don't have outs against everything. AA/KK/AK/K3/A3/33 have you drawing dead. However, he shouldn't limp/call with the first 3, and the others are sort of unlikely.

Yes, easy call as played. You are ahead enough and usually have outs, plus pot odds. However, he can't be semibluffing with the nut flush draw, since you have that.

I would check the turn with 2nd pair and the flush draw both getting there.

We’re way ahead way behind and trying to get it all over 3 streets is difficult. I would check turn or “same bet”.

As played we should call if we assume sometimes villain shoves with worse. If he never does then we should fold.

turn bet seems pretty bad.

as played seems like a simple odds question vs. an inputed range.

I was discounting AA/KK/AK and technically hero is live versus K3 (two outs) and 33 (three outs). A3 is counterfeit and one of the many possible combos that hero is ahead of.

Is there any reason we purposely decide to start the session with $500 and yet are starting this hand with $350? Would make sense if we're still the biggest stack, feel we're not playing well at this point and shouldn't sit deeper, the table wasn't as juicy as we initially thought it was, etc. But just make sure we're making purposeful decisions, imo.

Due to his smallish stack, I'd probably go to 10% of stacks preflop just to make stacking off with TP that more comfortable postflop / sets up a less awkward SPR. Plus thanks to being OOP with this hand we're that much cooler if a raise ends things now.

SPR is 7. Against most we probably shouldn't be wanting to play for stacks (especially the nittier our image is, although you likely don't have this problem). So not really a fan of the big flop bet for this reason... unless we've decided it's fine to play for stacks UI against this guy.

Not liking our turn bet at all as the main draw got there, the main second pair turned into trips, and I'd hate to get blown off my flush draw.

Against FOF types this is most likely a fold, imo. He's really picking this card to intentionally get his chips in with AJ instead of just passively calling down / hoping we don't bet any more?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Result:

I haven't seen the results yet.
I would bet smaller on the flop.
I'm checking the turn.
As played, on the turn, I think a fold is probably the right play. I don't think you have pot odds to draw against a made flush or trip kings.

PRE - raise bigger, especially when OOP and with loose passive opponents VPIP'ing.

FLOP - over bet. Probably making it $45 or $50.

TURN - as played to this point, either check or bet small, half pot or less.

Seems like we need around 30% equity to call here, and we probably only have 20%, at best. Seems like a pretty standard fold.

thx doc

You were 23% against his hand, with boat and flush outs. One of your flush outs is no good as it makes him a straight flush. You have about 23% against a K too. I think you have odds to call as played. If you are ahead 20% of the time, it is a call.

When he calls the flop, he probably has an ace, a king, or a flush draw. The king and the flush draw just got there, so I would check the turn.

IMO, your 80% pot on flop is fine. Preflop is a little small, but that is your style, and it is player and table dependent what they will call.