2024 Fantasy Football Thread

Every time I watch Herzig, stacking is all he talks about haha. In the earlier rounds, I'll prioritize ADP value over stacking, especially once I'm at 5+ picks of value. In the later rounds, ADP value isn't as important, so I'll prioritize stacking in those spots.

I also don't like stacking too hard in the early rounds. I don't have much MHJ/McBride, Puka/Davante, etc. Even Chase/Tee feels a little iffy given the investment, but after what we saw last season, I'm fine doing it some especially chasing the 6/7 turn Burrow stack on UD. I think price matters more than the field acknowledges when it comes to stacking non-QB teammates.

In the early rounds, you're betting on the player more than the offense. In the later rounds, you want to stack more and bet on the offense over the player, due to skill and talent gaps. Obviously, I'll almost always stack my QBs. But even then, I want to be careful not to over stack my exposures.

For instance, on Lamb/Ladd teams, I probably want 35-50% of those teams to have Dak and 35-50% to have Herbert, and sometimes, I'll have both. Are Lamb/Ladd less likely to pay off if Dak/Herbert get injured? Absolutely. But CD still scored double digits in 5/6 games without Dak last year, so I intentionally make an effort to not always tie WR to QB.

I also don't want to stack something like DJM, Rome, and Burden, since I think it's tough for all 3 to pay off ADP. But I certainly want to be exposed and like double stacking two of them. I think I'm fine tripling with Swift or Loveland with 2 of the WRs, especially when I have Caleb. But even that, I don't want to do a lot.

At this point, I'll still use w17 for tiebreaking purposes, but you fall into it often and easily, that it's not something you really need to chase.

Hayden recently posted this article, which is a nice refresher. Item 3 specifically talks of stacking the right teammates.

https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/everything-i-think-about-when-drafting-nfl-best-ball-teams

Underdog Network

Everything I Think About When Drafting NFL Best Ball Teams | Underdog Network

Within those notes, is a link to the other article below from 2022 that goes through positive and negative correlation for stacking extensively.

https://underdognetwork.com/football/best-ball-research/correlation-at-ceiling-outcomes-between-teammates-and-their-opponents

Underdog Network

Correlation At Ceiling Outcomes Between Teammates and Their Opponents | Underdog Network

While, in general, I think the data can be applied, one thing I don't think he touches on that could require more analysis is the fact that he's simply looking at roster performance as a whole. He kind of ignores that we only need to fill 8 starting spots for the week. So even if you have some stacks that might be negatively correlated, on average, the cumulative stacks could still propel your teams in the long run.

For instance, his data shows that WR1/WR2/TE1 are negatively correlated in the aggregate on a weekly basis, which makes sense. However, he also argues that stacking one WR/TE is perfectly fine. Well, let's say I have a DJM/Burden/Loveland stack, and in w15, DJM and Loveland go off while Burden doesn't. That doesn't necessarily mean I'm sunk, because I could have other WRs that make up for Burden's lack of production. Because then maybe in w16, DJM/Burden go off or Burden/Loveland go off, and so on. And I still think generally betting by stacking offenses to overperform on the whole is good for w1-14 advancing, which does include negatively correlated pieces on a weekly ceiling basis.

But overall, I think his data continues to speak to the caution of overstacking, whether that's too many pieces together, whether that's the right pieces together or whether that's stacking expensive teammates together.

Probably my least favorite team I've done recently. Fell behind at WR so I went with 10, and Penix being sniped 20 spots ahead of ADP didn't help. Can still work, but gonna need to get extra lucky.

Goff, Love

Kyren, Breece, Jones, Najee, Wright, Eli

ARSB, London, Jamo, Addison, Kirk, Doubs, Nuk, Tolbert, Cooks, Malik

Njoku, Kraft

Seems fine to me. I think WR is still strong enough you could stop at 9 and allocate the additional pick to either RB or TE.

That draft was the last of the $10 (5 max) on DK. I'm going to slow done significantly for a few weeks, unless they add in some more smaller buy-ins like another $3 or a $1 (150 max) would be sweet. Maybe I'll do the odd DK Milly or Eliminator on the weekends.

I’m flying to Croatia for 10 days next Friday so I’m hoping they either release something this week or wait till I’m back haha

That sounds fun. Traveling for work or pleasure or both?

I wouldn't be surprised to see some type of 5-50 max tournament released in the next week or so, once the Schnauzer is full. We might get one of those plus maybe a single entry Golden. But they might also wait a little while to push drafters to the other current offerings.

Last year, Puppy 1 was released on 5/8 and Puppy 2 was released on 6/18. The one Puppy Superflex was released on 6/3. I'm torn whether I want to fire any Superflex. It's a grind and requires a lot of extra thought to navigate those ADPs and strategy, but I also put a team in the finals last year on only 60 entries, so it's tempting. I'd only fire slows to be able to think through the picks.

Last year, Schanuzer 1 was released on 5/1 and Schanzuer 2 was released on 6/12.

The Pomeranian (50 max $3) was released on 5/8 last year, so maybe we get one of those. Or The Chihuahua (25 max $4), which was also released on 5/8 last year.

The Poodle (20 max $7) was released on 6/8 last year.

For pleasure, really looking forward to it!

Looks like they just released a sf puppy (I won’t be playing) and a pug $12x3max

Have fun! And speak of the devil lol. Guess I need to decide on the Superflex.

Looks like initial ADP isn't as out of whack as usual. All projected starting QBs are in the top 100. Allen, Lamar, and Jayden will quickly move up to the top 3 picks. Hurts probably up to 4, but not like it’s that off right now.

I think I’ll aim to do my Pugs between 35-75% fill rates. I’ll probably also do the 30 second clock rooms. I think they’re softer.

Like most degens I'll say I won't gamble on something, and then next thing you know...

But I can assure you, I WILL NOT be doing any superflex lol

I've decided I'm doing 75 lol. It's just too soft of a contest not to.

Obviously the QB ADPs will be way different, but I'll see multiple round differences in ADP for RBs/WRs/TEs compared to the non-SF contests, which never seems right. And since there are only a few SF contests each draft season, the ADP never has enough time to become super sharp. Part of it is stacking and part of it is the field simply not adjusting correctly.

I also see a lot of sharps sit out the SF contests, which makes me more inclined.

My finals team last year was pretty decent but just didn't perform like it needed to in w17. I finished 163/280.

Lamar, Nix, Dimes, Mac

JT, Kyren, Javonte, Rico, Khalil, Ali

ARSB, Nico, Zay, Hopkins, BTJ, Sutton, Downs

Juwan, Chig, Likely

I put up 153.58.

The winner was 209.96. Here's their team.

Jayden, Burrow, AOC

JT, Bucky, Spears, Davis, Braelon, Wright, Kendre

Malik, Tee, Terry, Davante, Pickens, Hopkins, Tez

Bowers, Gesicki, Knox

I wish I could, I just am so clueless at sf I’d probably make the field even softer haha

Pretty funny distributions here.

Every year it seems there are "free square" players to avoid. Last year Z White, M Pittman, C Kirk, H Brown, Luke Musgrave and CJ Stroud were on the list. I had 1% or less of these guys. I had zero percent Musgrave because picking Kraft in the last round made way better sense. Stroud was just going way to high. Hollywood might have been a decent pick if he didn't get hurt.

After doing a couple drafts I'm not seeing the obvious avoids this year. Do you guy's see any very easy avoids this year?

kenneth walker is mine

Khalil Shakir.

I’ll also be pretty light on the Browns and Saints.

I think I crushed this, right up until qb2 and te2… got completely shut out on both

Allen, Dart

Jones, Warren, Charbs, Spears, Davis, Shipley

Puka, Rashee, Pickens, Addison, Shakir, Kirk, Palmer, Slayton

Bowers, Theo

Daniels, Love

JT, Brob, Spears, Allgeier, Ekeler, Hunter

CD, Rashee, Flowers, Deebo, Golden, Mims, N Brown

Jonnu, Henry, Sanders

It can work. Was Stafford gone by the Davis and Palmer picks? It’d look a lot better with him + Higbee.

This one is nice if the RBs behind JT come through.

I took Davis hoping to push Stafford and he went at 159, my next pick was 161. Completely my fault as the guy had Adams and only Mahomes at qb so he was obviously taking Stafford, I just wasn’t paying attention

I'm actively trying to get more Warren with his price settling in. Njoku, Kraft, and Goedert are probably all better clicks, but I think Indy is going to intentionally work through Warren, QB situation be damned. It's one of the reasons I'm lower on Downs than most.

That's fair. Even if the Adams drafter doesn't need a QB, I think I still lock in Stafford in that build. Take Stafford over Davis, get Palmer on the way back, then add Corum/Hunter + Higbee.

Also, Allen is a QB I don't want to overstack, so I think only having 2 of Shakir, Davis, Palmer is perfectly fine.

Put together this team with a little tilt to add some extra fun.

Guy to my right sniped Trevor from me even though he had Reek/Waddle and Tua/Trevor have similar ADPs. Honestly, I wasn't even going to draft Trevor, but the audacity of this man.

So obviously when Tua makes it back around, 20 spots past ADP, I had to snipe him from this dickwad.

Dak, Stroud, Tua

Kyren, Henderson, BRob, Blue, James, ETN

Nico, BTJ, Hunter, Pickens, Tre, Palmer, Iosivas, Malik

Hock, Ertz (1st share), Ferguson

Haha. Maybe the Tua/Malik stack will be what you need.